Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

All things Rugby
User avatar
inactionman
Posts: 1454
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:25 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by inactionman »

Caley_Red wrote:
I like haggis wrote: Alternatively university students and graduates are young, in unpayable debts, not much opportunity for housebuying, in a jobs market where a degree is no longer worth good jobs (any jobs with Corona), and their friends are going through the same so discuss these things. They also have a different view of what liberal is to the spectator and Douglas Murray.

University workers and teachers are primarily left wing because they're in similar positions. University work is often precarious living contract to contract. My dad worked universities as a researcher and the pressure of working grant to grant makes it not as cushy a job as you'd think. My sister is a primary school teacher and her class supplies have to be bought from a public Amazon wishlist because the school can't afford them - no surprise teachers aren't Tory minded.
Degrees are still worthwhile but both the subject and the institution matter more, degree median earnings have been stagnant, i believe, for ten years or so in real terms but the underlying variance is massive e.g. many students are actually worse off for earning their degree in lifetime earnings whilst others bolster theirs by 5 to 6x.

The blame for the students you highlight above predominantly lies with them: there is more data on earnings and degree/institutions than there ever was and it's all a Google away. Although of course the current situation is outwith their control but so too was the financial crisis which decimated the graduate job market for a previous generation.

Just in case you think I'm some sort of old reactionary on the subject, I completed my undergrad and postgraduate in the last 10 years so have plenty of personal experience of what some of these people are going through: I worked in a pub for first 4 months after returning from postgrad. Many, particularly some arts and humanities graduates, can look forward to a lifetime of poor earnings when they'd have been much better off getting a trade- all of this could have been found out before embarking on said degree.

Not sure what your above point is to do with different interpretations of liberalism? These people pulling down statues and lobbying for fundamental change in our society are illiberal (by any interpretation of its core philosophies) and if their frustration is borne out of a lack of opportunities then it is incumbent on them to fix it themselves rather than tearing down the system.

House prices I completely agree on though, they're a national disgrace and it's continual government intervention limiting supply and priming demand which has worsened the situation. I note that the SNP's 'social justice' agenda doesn't extend to deflating the housing market, perhaps they have too much skin in the game?
I suspect it's because it's very, very difficult to achieve, especially from where we are now. Scotland has already introduced levies on duty payable for second homes, but the horse has already bolted.

You're right on the causes though. The right to buy was, in principle, one of the few Thatcher ideas I agreed with (as part of letting people control/take responsibility for their own lives and well being, and have a financial stake in their community) but it needed to be backed by continual re-investment in new housing with a view to sliding people off of social/subsidised rent and into ownership and keeping that cycle going. This didn't happen, as they blocked councils from building, and the whole thing was a disaster. It bottle-necked supply and sold to prospectors at bargain basement rates, making it all worse, not better. We're so far down that route I'm not sure how we reverse course.
User avatar
slick
Posts: 8257
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

dpedin wrote:NRS report excess deaths in week 23 are 1093 against a 5 year average of 1056, almost back into normal range. 37 additional deaths although still dreadful is a lot lower than when at the peak. Hopefully this trend will continue. Good timing for Wee Nic to announce loosening of lock down a bit more tomorrow?
Would be very interested in your views on the loosening. The general feeling I get from friends etc is now we have it that low we need to unlock a bit quicker, Maybe no England quick, but quicker.
User avatar
OptimisticJock
Posts: 7398
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: FTFT

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
I like haggis
Posts: 5048
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

I agree Caley Red young people should be introduced to trades sooner and not forced into a university education that doesn't work for them. That's why I commend the SNP on the idea of the curriculum for excellence even though it's been poorly introduced.

Definitely agree about institution and degree. And you can blame 17 year olds for going to schools which push towards university rather than skilled work and trades. Then you have societal pressure as it's seen as a rite of passage and everyone does it. It's not the best choice for a lot of people but the education system and society is geared towards it.

My point is liberalism has become a catch all term I think. Douglas Murray would call himself a liberal but has very different views to University lectures he berates who'd call themselves a liberal too. It's ill-defined I think. Maybe pulling down statues isn't liberal as it's an act of protest but then removing statues probably could be. Not sure it's incumbent on people to fix things - as you said we're living off the damages of the 2008 crash that had nothing to do with most people. Frustration and protest will only grow and become more common as life moves more and more to extractive shareholder capitalism. Coronavirus will only make that worse as cheap money is introduced and interest rates remain rock bottom. We're in an asset owner and asset renters economy. We're only going to see more inequality unless we see more rigid asset taxation. People feel probably correctly the game is rigged so they tear down statues in anger. That is their incumbency.

Agree governments have no idea what to do with house prices. It's one of them as soon as you have a house your view on how things should be re planning permission, new developments and second homes changes quite a bit it seems.
Last edited by I like haggis on Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
dargotronV.1
Posts: 4625
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dargotronV.1 »

OptimisticJock wrote:People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
Think I concur on that, though easier for you to assess from your vantage point.

Crossing fingers we don't have a wee upward curve in the case numbers in the next couple weeks but feel like we probably will?
frillage
Posts: 6663
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by frillage »

OptimisticJock wrote:People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
You have a few days off Peter Sutcliffe?
User avatar
OptimisticJock
Posts: 7398
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: FTFT

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

dargotronV.1 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
Think I concur on that, though easier for you to assess from your vantage point.

Crossing fingers we don't have a wee upward curve in the case numbers in the next couple weeks but feel like we probably will?
I agree there will be but this is here to stay. Can't keep going into lockdown
User avatar
OptimisticJock
Posts: 7398
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: FTFT

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

frillage wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
You have a few days off Peter Sutcliffe?
:lol:
User avatar
dargotronV.1
Posts: 4625
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dargotronV.1 »

OptimisticJock wrote:
dargotronV.1 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
Think I concur on that, though easier for you to assess from your vantage point.

Crossing fingers we don't have a wee upward curve in the case numbers in the next couple weeks but feel like we probably will?
I agree there will be but this is here to stay. Can't keep going into lockdown
Hopefully reports of reduced viral loads in the second waves will bear some lesser impacts as we go ahead leaving the initial lock down as the most extreme of its kind. While there are plenty reckless folks about most people have adjusted positively to the basic hygiene and distancing requirements so as long as those key measures keep being reinforced then I'm hopeful that it can be managed.

Devi Svridhar pointed out this morning that testing needs to be expanded to ensure all new cases are caught.
Last edited by dargotronV.1 on Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
dpedin
Posts: 1133
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:51 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

slick wrote:
dpedin wrote:NRS report excess deaths in week 23 are 1093 against a 5 year average of 1056, almost back into normal range. 37 additional deaths although still dreadful is a lot lower than when at the peak. Hopefully this trend will continue. Good timing for Wee Nic to announce loosening of lock down a bit more tomorrow?
Would be very interested in your views on the loosening. The general feeling I get from friends etc is now we have it that low we need to unlock a bit quicker, Maybe no England quick, but quicker.
My understanding is that the Test and Protect system, building on the existing PH systems, is up and running fully now with extra capacity if required so that provides the backstop we need in order to loosen the lock down. This is what Wee Nic has been waiting for and means we have the capacity and capability in place to react to any flare ups and to lock down local areas quickly if required. I've also heard that a fair chunk of the positive cases coming forward are from health or care workers so the community transmission is probably even lower than the figures suggest. Some areas like Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Highlands and Islands, etc have very low numbers. This will give her headroom to ease lockdown perhaps a little faster than planned but I suspect she will stick to the plan and try and hit this on the head as much as possible now, it will be far more difficult to reverse back into a lock down, you only get one chance at this? I think they want to get the numbers down as low as possible during the summer so that there is enough headroom going into winter cold and flu season when the virus is likely to re-emerge. I suspect she will stick with phase 2 plans as published. The moves down south re the 2m rule will prove interesting.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

dpedin wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
dpedin wrote:
bimboman wrote:
On the other hand the earlier relaxation of the lock down in England seems to be having a big impact with some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1 and the public seem to have decided the lock down is over. Some of the big protests, illegal raves and scrums as shops open will not help, I can see some difficulties ahead for parts of England.

Where in the UK is R above one?
I know I shouldn't respond but thought this might be of interest to others anyway.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Why shouldnt you respond, perfectly reasonable question?

Only area that might be above 1:

South West 0.8-1.1

Which is not conclusively above 1, just the upper range of the estimate.
I didnt used the word 'conclusively' just said that 'some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1'. Many are in the 0.8 to 1.0 range which for me is close to 1. You are right that the SW are showing a range of 0.8 to 1.1.
The reason for the lockdown was not to overwhelm the NHS, it being being close to 1 will not overwhelm the NHS.

The economy is tanking, people have had enough and as others have said are largely ignoring whatever Sturgeon says now anyway, this is very much backed on the evidence i am seeing too. It is beyond time to keep this lockdown as tight as she thinks it is. Get the schools back properly, their messaging on education is a complete shambles, it is far more important to be educating our young folk than having people meeting up in gardens anyway, it is all arse about tit. The young folk are all hanging out with each other now anyway and not giving a toss about 1m nevermind 2m, if they need to protect the vulnerable teachers etc by all means screen them off or whatever but the kids need back in the classroom proper.

Our daily cases are next fudge all and yet we have the slowest lockdown release in Europe, they dont even know what the true R number is, only an approximation because our testing is so shite.

We failed with the lockdown preventing excess deaths, now we are failing our young and inflicting more damage on the economy than is necessary.
dpedin
Posts: 1133
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:51 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

dargotronV.1 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:People aren't abiding by the rules anyway. I've got another set of nights coming where I'm fully expecting to spend too much time picking up drunks, much like a normal set of nights.
Think I concur on that, though easier for you to assess from your vantage point.

Crossing fingers we don't have a wee upward curve in the case numbers in the next couple weeks but feel like we probably will?
I think the expectation is that there will be a small peak at end of July/August time but the hope is that systems are in place to manage it locally and the numbers are low enough prior to loosening off lock down to ensure the R remains well below 1. More worried about the November/December period.
I like haggis
Posts: 5048
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

The whole UK failed on those LN because we locked down too late and that means a longer and more painful lockdown with less room for manoeuvre.

The 2m rule needs to be reduced and for tourism and schools to open back up. We'll see where we get to with that for a few months. Still no idea why we have summer holidays.
User avatar
OptimisticJock
Posts: 7398
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: FTFT

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

I'm not convinced by that test and trace thing yet, possibly more because it doesn't effect me in the slightest.

What annoys me about sturgeon (ok one of the many things) is her shite chaff about having the ability to bring phases forward and ease restrictions earlier than planned. We all know she doesn't have the bottle.

If I were a business owner I'd want the distance to be reduced. A lot of pubs and restaurants won't be able to make money without it and 2m is an over reaction.
robmatic
Posts: 204
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:11 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

OptimisticJock wrote:
If I were a business owner I'd want the distance to be reduced. A lot of pubs and restaurants won't be able to make money without it and 2m is an over reaction.
They're talking about 1m though which as far as I'm concerned is pre-pandemic behaviour.
User avatar
slick
Posts: 8257
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

I like haggis wrote:The whole UK failed on those LN because we locked down too late and that means a longer and more painful lockdown with less room for manoeuvre.

The 2m rule needs to be reduced and for tourism and schools to open back up. We'll see where we get to with that for a few months. Still no idea why we have summer holidays.
I do think it's important to remember that no one, anywhere, knows what the fudge they are doing. I'm certainly not aiming any critisism towards Nicola et al as a dig at the SNP etc, it is truly unprecedented and we won't know who has done well for a good few years.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

I like haggis wrote:The whole UK failed on those LN because we locked down too late and that means a longer and more painful lockdown with less room for manoeuvre.

The 2m rule needs to be reduced and for tourism and schools to open back up. We'll see where we get to with that for a few months. Still no idea why we have summer holidays.
Certainly did but on the stuff that is devolved they failed and are continuing to fail and are failing worse than the rest of the UK now.

They can argue about 1m or 2m it really doesnt matter as the economy is being hollowed out, so we wont be able to afford the NHS and everything else that people are so worried about. I really dont believe those advocating keeping the 2m rule get it, we are screwed if we dont get a grip and open up bloody quickly and get businesses earning again.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Our favourite columnist - Mr Massie

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -sxc638j58
Blended schools are sure to be bottom of class
Combining part-time teaching with remote learning will set up a generation of children to fail
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 16 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Sent down from Oxford for an unfortunate episode of indecent behaviour, Paul Pennyfeather, the protagonist in Evelyn Waugh’s Decline and Fall, discovers that his employment prospects are on the bleak side of disappointing. Teaching appears to be all that is available to him. At interview, he discovers that schools are classed into four grades: “Leading School, First-rate School, Good School and School” and “Frankly, School is pretty bad”.

To which we may now add a further category: “Blended School” and note, with still greater remorse, that frankly Blended School is pretty much certain to be worse than “School”. This, however, is what Scotland’s children will have to endure when schools return for the new academic year in August.

They will follow a “blended” curriculum in which part-time attendance at school will be juggled with remote-learning at home. In some areas, this may mean a week of school will be followed by a week of home schooling; in other parts of the country pupils may spend more time working at home than at school. It is going to be a disaster.

Schools have been put in an impossible position. They must adhere to social-distancing rules so cautious they are the most conservative in the western world. That necessarily puts a limit on the number of pupils who can be housed in any classroom. Even if space were available or used more imaginatively, there would be the problem of not having sufficient teachers to instruct smaller class sizes.

The problems of personnel are such that it is not immediately obvious even a successful recruitment drive targeting former or retired teachers to come back to schools to better meet the demands of this emergency would prove sufficient. Current guidelines mean it is going to be impossible for schools to function properly.

From which it follows that schools are being set up to fail. Councils blame the Scottish government and the Scottish government blames councils for their failure to do more with less. Parents, meanwhile, are left to wonder who, if anyone, is really putting the needs and interests of children first.

In Edinburgh, for example, pupils will attend school on a part-time basis on a three-week rota. Because schools are scheduled to return a week earlier in August than planned, the next school year will also end a week earlier than scheduled. Heaven forbid that anyone should think to make up lost time. Even now, after all this, the sanctity of the school holidays must not be jeopardised.

As a symbolic matter, that feels significant. I think you could go so far as to consider it a dereliction of duty; it certainly seems to betray a dismal poverty of ambition. Nor are such concerns limited to the capital. In Argyll, for instance, children in some secondaries will only attend school for one and a half days a week. The rest of their learning will be conducted remotely and, often, online. This in an area where many households suffer from inadequate internet provision as it is. Here too, failure is all but assured.

We already know from the experience of schools and pupils this term that distance learning varies enormously between schools and across council areas. A new paper published by Francis Green, professor of work and education economics at University College London (UCL), suggests that across the UK pupils have spent an average of only two and a half hours a day doing schoolwork during the lockdown. In Scotland, the UCL study, which is based on responses from more than 4,500 households in Britain, reports that 30 per cent of pupils have received less than one offline lesson or work assignment a day and 70 per cent less than one online lesson each school day. Only 14 per cent of pupils have spent four hours a day studying while 26 per cent have done less than an hour a day on schoolwork.

Better organised and better resourced online provision should help improve those numbers in August but it remains obvious that pupils from poorer families will suffer more than those with the wherewithal to afford additional private tuition. The attainment gap will widen dramatically.

From which it also follows that some of these pupils will spend the rest of their lives paying for this. They really will be the Covid-19 Generation. Some who might have gone to university will now not do so. That will cost the typical such child more than £100,000 in lifetime earnings. Inequality, already shamefully apparent, will increase. Meanwhile, parents will be left to juggle home schooling, childcare and, notionally, a return to their own work. It seems likely — if also unjust — that this burden will be disproportionately borne by women.

Since the current proposals will not work, there is good reason to rethink them. On Sunday President Macron announced that all French schools would return to normal schooling next Monday. Yet, in 60 days, Scotland still plans to proceed with part-time education. In truth, we do not yet know the risks of reopening schools as normal; we do, however, know that the consequences of this “blended” approach will be severe and felt most by those least able to afford it. As I say, a disaster looms.
I like haggis
Posts: 5048
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
dpedin
Posts: 1133
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:51 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
I like haggis wrote:The whole UK failed on those LN because we locked down too late and that means a longer and more painful lockdown with less room for manoeuvre.

The 2m rule needs to be reduced and for tourism and schools to open back up. We'll see where we get to with that for a few months. Still no idea why we have summer holidays.
Certainly did but on the stuff that is devolved they failed and are continuing to fail and are failing worse than the rest of the UK now.

They can argue about 1m or 2m it really doesnt matter as the economy is being hollowed out, so we wont be able to afford the NHS and everything else that people are so worried about. I really dont believe those advocating keeping the 2m rule get it, we are screwed if we dont get a grip and open up bloody quickly and get businesses earning again.
Its a difficult balance, its the old risk = impact x likelihood equation. Reducing from 2 metres to one metre aprox doubles the chances of infection. However if there are very few cases in the community it makes little difference. For many/most parts of Scotland I would agree that a 1 metre rule with usual hand cleansing, face masks, etc would be sufficient but there are still a few places/environments where it will still be a risk. It is also about trying to avoid another sizeable peak where we might need to go back into full lock down again which might be much worse than a slow releasing of lock down. I suppose Wee Nic has gone for the avoid a 2nd peak approach whereas the Blonde Bumblecunt has adopted the release lock down earlier and cross the fingers we don't have a 2nd peak approach. Roll the dice and take your chances ...

I'm not sure what the evidence is about schools. I think everyone is agreed that children have very, very low health risk from the virus but I haven't seen clear evidence to say whether or not school kids are infectious and can catch and spread virus from school to home and on to family, grandparents, etc? if they don't then lets open schools and get on with it, however if they do act as spreaders of the virus then perhaps we need a more cautious approach to avoid community spread? Again it will depend on numbers in the community and will vary considerably across different parts of Scotland. Perhaps we adopt a more regional approach with those areas like the Borders or Highlands opening up schools fully asap?

Test and trace etc is our insurance policy if things go tits up. Hopefully most of us will not be aware or involved in it but it needs to be there to quickly identify and lock down local outbreaks i.e. NZ cases. Without it then we have no back up plan other than full lock down! However it does need testing turnaround times of 24 hours or less.

No easy answers - slow release from lock down creates economic difficulties but quicker release but triggering risk of 2nd peak and full lock down again creates economic difficulties. Thankfully Im not making these decisions.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

dpedin wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
I like haggis wrote:The whole UK failed on those LN because we locked down too late and that means a longer and more painful lockdown with less room for manoeuvre.

The 2m rule needs to be reduced and for tourism and schools to open back up. We'll see where we get to with that for a few months. Still no idea why we have summer holidays.
Certainly did but on the stuff that is devolved they failed and are continuing to fail and are failing worse than the rest of the UK now.

They can argue about 1m or 2m it really doesnt matter as the economy is being hollowed out, so we wont be able to afford the NHS and everything else that people are so worried about. I really dont believe those advocating keeping the 2m rule get it, we are screwed if we dont get a grip and open up bloody quickly and get businesses earning again.
Its a difficult balance, its the old risk = impact x likelihood equation. Reducing from 2 metres to one metre aprox doubles the chances of infection. However if there are very few cases in the community it makes little difference. For many/most parts of Scotland I would agree that a 1 metre rule with usual hand cleansing, face masks, etc would be sufficient but there are still a few places/environments where it will still be a risk. It is also about trying to avoid another sizeable peak where we might need to go back into full lock down again which might be much worse than a slow releasing of lock down. I suppose Wee Nic has gone for the avoid a 2nd peak approach whereas the Blonde Bumblecunt has adopted the release lock down earlier and cross the fingers we don't have a 2nd peak approach. Roll the dice and take your chances ...

I'm not sure what the evidence is about schools. I think everyone is agreed that children have very, very low health risk from the virus but I haven't seen clear evidence to say whether or not school kids are infectious and can catch and spread virus from school to home and on to family, grandparents, etc? if they don't then lets open schools and get on with it, however if they do act as spreaders of the virus then perhaps we need a more cautious approach to avoid community spread? Again it will depend on numbers in the community and will vary considerably across different parts of Scotland. Perhaps we adopt a more regional approach with those areas like the Borders or Highlands opening up schools fully asap?

Test and trace etc is our insurance policy if things go tits up. Hopefully most of us will not be aware or involved in it but it needs to be there to quickly identify and lock down local outbreaks i.e. NZ cases. Without it then we have no back up plan other than full lock down! However it does need testing turnaround times of 24 hours or less.

No easy answers - slow release from lock down creates economic difficulties but quicker release but triggering risk of 2nd peak and full lock down again creates economic difficulties. Thankfully Im not making these decisions.
We cant lockdown again, not for health reasons we simply cant afford it. So the decision is now pretty straightforward, they have to get the economy working and do so bloody quickly, it is a false option she is raising. The economic damage is such that the conservative figure for our national debt is that it is going to be 2 trillion by the end of this year with all the action already taken and the drop in the tax receipts.

Her dithering and delay is now just increasing the economic damage, 1m or 2m is a false discussion now, people are already ignoring it in large gatherings, not to mention the huge numbers packed together during the protests.

Schools need to be back properly so people can work properly. Pubs and restaurants have to have the distance reduced to 2m to be profitable otehrwise they might as well not bother opening as they wont survive long term and it will cost them more short term.

If testing is the answer they are miles off the pace, less than a third of the capacity is being taken up, we are properly screwed with their incompetence in numerous areas.
dpedin
Posts: 1133
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:51 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
dpedin wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
I like haggis wrote:The whole UK failed on those LN because we locked down too late and that means a longer and more painful lockdown with less room for manoeuvre.

The 2m rule needs to be reduced and for tourism and schools to open back up. We'll see where we get to with that for a few months. Still no idea why we have summer holidays.
Certainly did but on the stuff that is devolved they failed and are continuing to fail and are failing worse than the rest of the UK now.

They can argue about 1m or 2m it really doesnt matter as the economy is being hollowed out, so we wont be able to afford the NHS and everything else that people are so worried about. I really dont believe those advocating keeping the 2m rule get it, we are screwed if we dont get a grip and open up bloody quickly and get businesses earning again.
Its a difficult balance, its the old risk = impact x likelihood equation. Reducing from 2 metres to one metre aprox doubles the chances of infection. However if there are very few cases in the community it makes little difference. For many/most parts of Scotland I would agree that a 1 metre rule with usual hand cleansing, face masks, etc would be sufficient but there are still a few places/environments where it will still be a risk. It is also about trying to avoid another sizeable peak where we might need to go back into full lock down again which might be much worse than a slow releasing of lock down. I suppose Wee Nic has gone for the avoid a 2nd peak approach whereas the Blonde Bumblecunt has adopted the release lock down earlier and cross the fingers we don't have a 2nd peak approach. Roll the dice and take your chances ...

I'm not sure what the evidence is about schools. I think everyone is agreed that children have very, very low health risk from the virus but I haven't seen clear evidence to say whether or not school kids are infectious and can catch and spread virus from school to home and on to family, grandparents, etc? if they don't then lets open schools and get on with it, however if they do act as spreaders of the virus then perhaps we need a more cautious approach to avoid community spread? Again it will depend on numbers in the community and will vary considerably across different parts of Scotland. Perhaps we adopt a more regional approach with those areas like the Borders or Highlands opening up schools fully asap?

Test and trace etc is our insurance policy if things go tits up. Hopefully most of us will not be aware or involved in it but it needs to be there to quickly identify and lock down local outbreaks i.e. NZ cases. Without it then we have no back up plan other than full lock down! However it does need testing turnaround times of 24 hours or less.

No easy answers - slow release from lock down creates economic difficulties but quicker release but triggering risk of 2nd peak and full lock down again creates economic difficulties. Thankfully Im not making these decisions.
We cant lockdown again, not for health reasons we simply cant afford it. So the decision is now pretty straightforward, they have to get the economy working and do so bloody quickly, it is a false option she is raising. The economic damage is such that the conservative figure for our national debt is that it is going to be 2 trillion by the end of this year with all the action already taken and the drop in the tax receipts.

Her dithering and delay is now just increasing the economic damage, 1m or 2m is a false discussion now, people are already ignoring it in large gatherings, not to mention the huge numbers packed together during the protests.

Schools need to be back properly so people can work properly. Pubs and restaurants have to have the distance reduced to 2m to be profitable otehrwise they might as well not bother opening as they wont survive long term and it will cost them more short term.

If testing is the answer they are miles off the pace, less than a third of the capacity is being taken up, we are properly screwed with their incompetence in numerous areas.
I don't disagree about the economics of this but just trying to highlight that the way out of this shitstorm is perhaps more nuanced than just lifting the lock down and keeping the fingers crossed.

I don't think the 1 or 2 metre rule is a false discussion, all the evidence is that the vast majority of folk are adhering to the social distancing guidance. This is probably why we have been able to get our numbers down as low as they currently are. As I said in previous post I suspect there is scope to reduce the requirements but this needs to be done carefully and only if other measures are in place - hand cleansing, masks, ventilation, etc. A 'free for all' will be a disaster as you allude to with the protests and illegal raves.

Testing isn't just about numbers, it needs to be part of a wider testing strategy including track and protect and focus on priority areas/groups. However I agree that more regular testing of health and social care workers would be a priority area as they appear to be the main group who are returning positive tests. Mass testing of the population given the numbers of tests available wouldn't probably do an awful lot of good for where we are in the virus spread.

Schools is an interesting one. Even for those schools that were opened down south many had poor take up with parents deciding to keep their kids at home, mostly due to a lack of confidence in the preparations made. Confidence is the key issue!

The public went into lock down themselves before the UK or Scot Gov decided to call it. Many decided for themselves it was too risky to go out and stayed indoors as much as they could. Pubs, restaurants, etc all suffered big drops in revenue before the lock down was officially called. Many industries called a self imposed lock down prior to the official lock down. If we get another big peak of infections and the public feel the risk is too great then they will probably go into another self imposed lock down. They will stop going out, going to pubs, restaurants, cinema, theatres and shopping. If required they will do the minimum required to keep their jobs and stop spending as they will be nervous about the future and look to save if they can, the economy will tank. Even without a lock down employers will still have to meet all the H&S and infection control requirements and will be nervous about operating as normal if the virus is spreading fast, fearful of putting staff and customers at risk. Do we end up using the same disclaimers that the Tango Twat is using on all those attending his rallies in the states? For me getting out of this shitshow is all about ensuring the public can be confident that the virus is under control and it is safe to resume normal living, or whatever the new normal is. However coming out of lock down or not there are some businesses who will struggle to adapt to the new normal and will go under unless a vaccine is discovered and public confidence in their business is restored.
User avatar
OptimisticJock
Posts: 7398
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: FTFT

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

dpedin wrote:However I agree that more regular testing of health and social care workers would be a priority area as they appear to be the main group who are returning positive tests. Mass testing of the population given the numbers of tests available wouldn't probably do an awful lot of good for where we are in the virus spread.
This might sound like me being a pedant but this implies we currently get regular testing. We don't and never have.
dpedin
Posts: 1133
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:51 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

OptimisticJock wrote:
dpedin wrote:However I agree that more regular testing of health and social care workers would be a priority area as they appear to be the main group who are returning positive tests. Mass testing of the population given the numbers of tests available wouldn't probably do an awful lot of good for where we are in the virus spread.
This might sound like me being a pedant but this implies we currently get regular testing. We don't and never have.
Not meant to imply that - my fault!
User avatar
Edinburgh01
Posts: 5799
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

We have a holiday let cottage and have been getting 5 or 6 queries a day.

I can understand people from England looking for lets from the 9th July as Scotland is a week later, but we have both Scots and English looking for lets from this weekend.
Biffer29
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:18 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

I like haggis wrote:Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
Let's be honest, do you want to have the discussion with the teacher's unions about them not getting their summer break?
I like haggis
Posts: 5048
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
Let's be honest, do you want to have the discussion with the teacher's unions about them not getting their summer break?
I don't believe teachers are workshy. My sister is a teacher in a low income area and it's a tough job. She teaches reception - should be back but parents won't send their kids in.

The union's maybe don't help but the total lack of any govt planning is the issue.
Biffer29
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:18 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

I like haggis wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
Let's be honest, do you want to have the discussion with the teacher's unions about them not getting their summer break?
I don't believe teachers are workshy. My sister is a teacher in a low income area and it's a tough job. She teaches reception - should be back but parents won't send their kids in.

The union's maybe don't help but the total lack of any govt planning is the issue.
Believe me, that's not a dig at teachers, they do something I couldn't do without breaking a few heads. But their unions can be, shall we say, intractable. That's a good thing in a union, and more should be like that for their members. I just wouldn't fancy trying to work out a contract addition with them for the summer and negotiate the pay for it.
I like haggis
Posts: 5048
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
Let's be honest, do you want to have the discussion with the teacher's unions about them not getting their summer break?
I don't believe teachers are workshy. My sister is a teacher in a low income area and it's a tough job. She teaches reception - should be back but parents won't send their kids in.

The union's maybe don't help but the total lack of any govt planning is the issue.
Believe me, that's not a dig at teachers, they do something I couldn't do without breaking a few heads. But their unions can be, shall we say, intractable. That's a good thing in a union, and more should be like that for their members. I just wouldn't fancy trying to work out a contract addition with them for the summer and negotiate the pay for it.
I think if you provided safe as can be working conditions kids would go for it. As Mr Massie said they are returning early anyway. If they get a payrise fair enough.
User avatar
message #2527204
Posts: 14048
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Ultracrepidaria

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by message #2527204 »

I like haggis wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
Let's be honest, do you want to have the discussion with the teacher's unions about them not getting their summer break?
I don't believe teachers are workshy. My sister is a teacher in a low income area and it's a tough job. She teaches reception - should be back but parents won't send their kids in.

The union's maybe don't help but the total lack of any govt planning is the issue.
What sort of government planning? What are you expecting?

And I'm not calling the teachers workshy, as I've already said, it's the unions that are pretending everyone will die without adequate protection and twice the workforce in my kids school, as they can only work two weeks on and two weeks off which makes it safer.
Flyin Ryan
Posts: 10991
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Indiana

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Flyin Ryan »

I like haggis wrote:Has anyone in any constituent part of the UK explained why holidays must stay protected?
Re schools over here, I said back in April in an ideal world they should just wipe out summer holidays -the lockdown is "your summer" - and go back to school then, but also had the qualifying statement of anyone that tried to do that would be an incredibly hated person. Not just teachers and children, but the parents of those children.
User avatar
dargotronV.1
Posts: 4625
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dargotronV.1 »

Kicking off again in Glasgow, Rangers fans now attacking an asylum seekers protest in George Square, lots of shouts of 'fenian b*stards' etc, following their riot on Saturday when they ran amok through the centre beating up journalists while 'protecting' statues.

https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1 ... 23040?s=20
https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1 ... 27362?s=20

Shameful and disgusting :x
DAC_
Posts: 2755
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:28 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by DAC_ »

dargotronV.1 wrote:Kicking off again in Glasgow, Rangers fans now attacking an asylum seekers protest in George Square, lots of shouts of 'fenian b*stards' etc, following their riot on Saturday when they ran amok through the centre beating up journalists while 'protecting' statues.

https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1 ... 23040?s=20
https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1 ... 27362?s=20

Shameful and disgusting :x
The first one seems to be one guy in a blue top, and loads of people to fat or unfit to hit him?
User avatar
message #2527204
Posts: 14048
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Ultracrepidaria

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by message #2527204 »

Rule Brittania. Disgusting. In Britain in this day and age.
User avatar
inactionman
Posts: 1454
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:25 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by inactionman »

Christ.

Wouldn't get that in Edinburgh

<sniffs loftily>
User avatar
dargotronV.1
Posts: 4625
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dargotronV.1 »

And here's the other side of Glasgow, happening now...

https://twitter.com/ruby_zajac/status/1 ... 99936?s=20
User avatar
message #2527204
Posts: 14048
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Ultracrepidaria

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by message #2527204 »

They don't like those facists
Caley_Red
Posts: 1326
Joined: Mon May 21, 2018 12:24 am
Location: Sydney (for now)

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

inactionman wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
I like haggis wrote: Alternatively university students and graduates are young, in unpayable debts, not much opportunity for housebuying, in a jobs market where a degree is no longer worth good jobs (any jobs with Corona), and their friends are going through the same so discuss these things. They also have a different view of what liberal is to the spectator and Douglas Murray.

University workers and teachers are primarily left wing because they're in similar positions. University work is often precarious living contract to contract. My dad worked universities as a researcher and the pressure of working grant to grant makes it not as cushy a job as you'd think. My sister is a primary school teacher and her class supplies have to be bought from a public Amazon wishlist because the school can't afford them - no surprise teachers aren't Tory minded.
Degrees are still worthwhile but both the subject and the institution matter more, degree median earnings have been stagnant, i believe, for ten years or so in real terms but the underlying variance is massive e.g. many students are actually worse off for earning their degree in lifetime earnings whilst others bolster theirs by 5 to 6x.

The blame for the students you highlight above predominantly lies with them: there is more data on earnings and degree/institutions than there ever was and it's all a Google away. Although of course the current situation is outwith their control but so too was the financial crisis which decimated the graduate job market for a previous generation.

Just in case you think I'm some sort of old reactionary on the subject, I completed my undergrad and postgraduate in the last 10 years so have plenty of personal experience of what some of these people are going through: I worked in a pub for first 4 months after returning from postgrad. Many, particularly some arts and humanities graduates, can look forward to a lifetime of poor earnings when they'd have been much better off getting a trade- all of this could have been found out before embarking on said degree.

Not sure what your above point is to do with different interpretations of liberalism? These people pulling down statues and lobbying for fundamental change in our society are illiberal (by any interpretation of its core philosophies) and if their frustration is borne out of a lack of opportunities then it is incumbent on them to fix it themselves rather than tearing down the system.

House prices I completely agree on though, they're a national disgrace and it's continual government intervention limiting supply and priming demand which has worsened the situation. I note that the SNP's 'social justice' agenda doesn't extend to deflating the housing market, perhaps they have too much skin in the game?
I suspect it's because it's very, very difficult to achieve, especially from where we are now. Scotland has already introduced levies on duty payable for second homes, but the horse has already bolted.

You're right on the causes though. The right to buy was, in principle, one of the few Thatcher ideas I agreed with (as part of letting people control/take responsibility for their own lives and well being, and have a financial stake in their community) but it needed to be backed by continual re-investment in new housing with a view to sliding people off of social/subsidised rent and into ownership and keeping that cycle going. This didn't happen, as they blocked councils from building, and the whole thing was a disaster. It bottle-necked supply and sold to prospectors at bargain basement rates, making it all worse, not better. We're so far down that route I'm not sure how we reverse course.
Right to buy might have started it but each successive government has a part of the blame: Major and Thatcher also oversaw bank reform which allowed vast increases in the volume of lending banks could do; Blair and Brown tightened up supply by creating a network of pettifogging laws that put more power in the hands of local residences as well as vastly increasing the regs on building spec and sent demand through the roof by adding millions to the population through their reckless migration policies; Cameron created the national planning framework which tightened up greenbelt legislation, he also did nothing to reverse the Blair migration policies (though he banged on about it a lot); Osborne created the help to buy legislation which was widely abused by landlords and wealthy parents; May I don't recall ever mentioning housing, perfect example of inter-generational 'I'm alright Jack'; and, Boris has committed nothing to fundamentally changing the housing market.

Policy tools are available but they will be (generally) unpopular with people over 55 and therefore it's a non-starter. The problem in this case is that, although Labour are equally (arguably more so) complicit in the housing bubble, the centre-right parties get punished at the ballot box for housing affordability. If I were the Conservatives, I'd be worried about the rising age where the majority of people vote Conservative as the housing market is a clear factor in this.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

dpedin wrote:
I don't disagree about the economics of this but just trying to highlight that the way out of this shitstorm is perhaps more nuanced than just lifting the lock down and keeping the fingers crossed.

I don't think the 1 or 2 metre rule is a false discussion, all the evidence is that the vast majority of folk are adhering to the social distancing guidance. This is probably why we have been able to get our numbers down as low as they currently are. As I said in previous post I suspect there is scope to reduce the requirements but this needs to be done carefully and only if other measures are in place - hand cleansing, masks, ventilation, etc. A 'free for all' will be a disaster as you allude to with the protests and illegal raves.

Testing isn't just about numbers, it needs to be part of a wider testing strategy including track and protect and focus on priority areas/groups. However I agree that more regular testing of health and social care workers would be a priority area as they appear to be the main group who are returning positive tests. Mass testing of the population given the numbers of tests available wouldn't probably do an awful lot of good for where we are in the virus spread.

Schools is an interesting one. Even for those schools that were opened down south many had poor take up with parents deciding to keep their kids at home, mostly due to a lack of confidence in the preparations made. Confidence is the key issue!

The public went into lock down themselves before the UK or Scot Gov decided to call it. Many decided for themselves it was too risky to go out and stayed indoors as much as they could. Pubs, restaurants, etc all suffered big drops in revenue before the lock down was officially called. Many industries called a self imposed lock down prior to the official lock down. If we get another big peak of infections and the public feel the risk is too great then they will probably go into another self imposed lock down. They will stop going out, going to pubs, restaurants, cinema, theatres and shopping. If required they will do the minimum required to keep their jobs and stop spending as they will be nervous about the future and look to save if they can, the economy will tank. Even without a lock down employers will still have to meet all the H&S and infection control requirements and will be nervous about operating as normal if the virus is spreading fast, fearful of putting staff and customers at risk. Do we end up using the same disclaimers that the Tango Twat is using on all those attending his rallies in the states? For me getting out of this shitshow is all about ensuring the public can be confident that the virus is under control and it is safe to resume normal living, or whatever the new normal is. However coming out of lock down or not there are some businesses who will struggle to adapt to the new normal and will go under unless a vaccine is discovered and public confidence in their business is restored.
Sorry i really dont believe the majority of people are adhering to the 2m rule anymore, just walking around and seeing how people are mingling again they have largely abandoned it, sorry i should say this is based on my anecdotal evidence in the NE, they might be better in the central belt but given the protestors on the march and everything else i have seen on tv i think most have now viewed where the risk is, see it is very small and are making their own judgement.

In Europe we now have 22 countries with schools back to one degree or another and there has been no uptick in infection rates but Swinney seems determined to make a bad situation the worst possible outcome and i would say the same for their handling of the economy.

Sure some people are going to be scared, hard not to be with the messaging over the last 3 months but the actual risk to becoming seriously ill from this for anyone under 65 and in reasonable health is very small, we dont need the SG compounding the mistakes going into lockdown and during lockdown even worse on the way out.

Sturgeon should stand up today and say we are moving to phrase 3 pronto and schools will be opening up as normal come August, her and Swinney seriously need to get a grip and up the ante here. Every other country in Europe is getting their act together and we are left with this shambles. It is not good enough, no matter anyones political affiliation.
Post Reply