Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

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Edinburgh01
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

On the Pentlands, I was just going on a post from a friend in Edinburgh who walks her dog there most days. No direct information myself.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

slick wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Just passed 2 different street parties and seen at least a dozen other people staggering about. Its a joke we're pretending this isn't happening whilst small businesses go under.
Yup, lots of parties going on around here last night. During the day Inverleith Park was very busy with a few big groups, but most distancing and good natured - the queues for the take away beer at the Raeburn were huge!

The Meadows were absolutely heaving from what I saw, 3 or 4 sound systems set up (I’m told). It’s over really.

As I said further up, I’m not particularly laying blame on any government as this is unprecedented but my comment is that SG have misjudged this and are being too cautious, they have lost a big chunk of the public now
That was in Forfar btw. The amount of people we seen wandering along the main roads in dundee was like a normal Saturday night.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

Last three Panelbase polls showing Indy support above 50%.

All conducted for pro Indy media but still not great for those on my side of this argument.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

tc27 wrote:Last three Panelbase polls showing Indy support above 50%.

All conducted for pro Indy media but still not great for those on my side of this argument.
The problem with these polls, for both sides, is that the responses broadly break down into two categories on each side. On the independence side there are those who support independence come what may, but then there are a decently large number who support the general concept of independence, but are unwilling to take any pain to get there, or are worried about the downside that may come.

In the last referendum, the union side explicitly ignored the first group on the basis that they would not change their mind, and went after the second strongly. Project Fear may not have been very edifying, but is was absolutely the right tactic.

I suspect that whilst the overall numbers have grown, the growth is more in the uncommitted as there are clearly more economic issues now than there were.

Personally I think the SNP would be mad to go for a referendum unless there was a clear and significant majority in favour as many pro independence voters will quite understandably take the small 'c' conservative approach.

As I have said before, the status quo is not a terrible place to be. So that and the risk may swing many against an independence vote when they vote with their head rather than their heart.
Last edited by Edinburgh01 on Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by HKCJ »

The litter thing is annoying but can ultimately be remedied pretty quickly. The most irritating thing for me is the huge rise in graffiti. Even parts of the New Town have been sprayed everywhere. :x
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Edinburgh01
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

HKCJ wrote:The litter thing is annoying but can ultimately be remedied pretty quickly. The most irritating thing for me is the huge rise in graffiti. Even parts of the New Town have been sprayed everywhere. :x
One of the things that has been very noticeable is that early in lockdown the polis were patrolling beauty spots and car parks. I have never seen them up here as often, but now they have not only disappeared, they are not responding to calls about places being trashed.

Is this just random graffiti brought on by lack of people so neds have been emboldened?
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Edinburgh01 wrote:
tc27 wrote:Last three Panelbase polls showing Indy support above 50%.

All conducted for pro Indy media but still not great for those on my side of this argument.
The problem with these polls, for both sides, is that the responses broadly break down into two categories on each side. On the independence side there are those who support independence come what may, but then there are a decently large number who support the general concept of independence, but are unwilling to take any pain to get there, or are worried about the downside that may come.

In the last referendum, the union side explicitly ignored the first group on the basis that they would not change their mind, and went after the second strongly. Project Fear may not have been very edifying, but is was absolutely the right tactic.

I suspect that whilst the overall numbers have grown, the growth is more in the uncommitted as there are clearly more economic issues now than there were.

Personally I think the SNP would be mad to go for a referendum unless there was a clear and significant majority in favour as many pro independence voters will quite understandably take the small 'c' conservative approach.

As I have said before, the status quo is not a terrible place to be. So that and the risk may swing many against an independence vote when they vote with their head rather than their heart.
Aye, Better Together had the right strategy for achieving what they wanted. They still almost fvcked it up with their tactics and operations, but they held on.

If I were a Unionist, what would worry me is the idea that independence becomes the majority view - for 'soft no' types, it would mean that a lot of sensible folk they would regularly meet and socialize with would have crossed the bridge to Yes, and as much as we want to deny it, the herd mentality is still strong in humans. A lot of them will go with what they perceive to be the group view, especially about something that they are emotionally (if not rationally) attracted to.

I think most modelling from the 2014 campaigns suggested a 30-45-25 split between hard Yes - undecided - hard No? If that's true, potential support for independence could be as much as 70%, and for that, you need a tipping point where the undecideds start believing that independence is the people's preference. Continuous polling over 50% and continuous shambles at Westminster (irrespective of the quality of government at Holyrood) could provide that tipping point. Will be interesting to see if independence support keeps rising further in the polls.

A lot will also depend on who can successfully convince the Scots where the blame lies for the economic hard times that are coming - if it's Covid, Unionists should finally be able to punch holes in the SG track record, especially if the schools don't go back in August contrary to almost everywhere else. If the SG manages to bat that away and refocus the Scots' attention onto the suicidal hard Brexit that's coming in a few months, the previously unthinkable 60+% support for independence might happen soon.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

HKCJ wrote:The litter thing is annoying but can ultimately be remedied pretty quickly. The most irritating thing for me is the huge rise in graffiti. Even parts of the New Town have been sprayed everywhere. :x
The wife was going on about this yesterday, hadn't really noticed before but, yes, it is everywhere. Even in the New Town!
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

ye, Better Together had the right strategy for achieving what they wanted. They still almost fvcked it up with their tactics and operations, but they held on.
BT get a lot of stick for going hard on the economics and currency but it really is where the Nationalists are weakest and have no coherent answers - its sound strategy to attack your opponent in their weakest area. However the EU referendum showed the BT model was flawed IMO - pointing out the economic insanity of your opponents plans is not going to be enough and other factors can overwhelm the voters conservative instincts. I think the anti separatist/Unionist side need to realise that cobbling together a cross party campaign 6 months before the vote wont cut it this time, the SG, the SNP and their outriders have being campaigning since 2014.
A lot will also depend on who can successfully convince the Scots where the blame lies for the economic hard times that are coming - if it's Covid, Unionists should finally be able to punch holes in the SG track record, especially if the schools don't go back in August contrary to almost everywhere else. If the SG manages to bat that away and refocus the Scots' attention onto the suicidal hard Brexit that's coming in a few months, the previously unthinkable 60+% support for independence might happen soon.
Think this is true.

Also the truism that Independence is probably going to be a far harder path in economic terms than Covid and Brexit needs to be reinforced. SNP politicians are still trying to refer to Indy as a 'lifeboat'.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

I was firmly in the Better Together camp and think independence is economically risky, whatever way you look at it, but after 4 years of inane Brexit reasoning dominating the national conversation you can see why people who would be previously uncommitted might now think 'fudge it, let's go'.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by KnuckleDragger »

robmatic wrote:I was firmly in the Better Together camp and think independence is economically risky, whatever way you look at it, but after 4 years of inane Brexit reasoning dominating the national conversation you can see why people who would be previously uncommitted might now think 'fudge it, let's go'.
In which case, those of that viewpoint need to prepare themselves for a pretty grim future. Scotland will be, to paraphrase Turkish, proper fudged economically.....
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dargotronV.1 »

From the latest poll -

70% = Yes support among ages 16-34
23% of 2014 No voters now support independence

Knuckle Dragger, hate to break it to you but we're all fudged economically the way things are going. As it is, all WM have to do is say 'no second referendum', which the SNP while publicly aghast will privately be fine with at least in the short term. The problem for WM isn't going away though.
Last edited by dargotronV.1 on Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

We were talking on Zoom to a friend who is head of primary for one of the private schools.

She can't wait for the holidays to come. She reckons she and her staff have never worked as hard, and certainly not for as long. In essence they had to re-invent the way they taught, had to re-invent many if not most of their teaching materials, and they are teaching in a way none of them have ever done before. Trying to keep lots of individuals up to speed remotely is proving far, far harder than teaching a class in the traditional way.

Apparently they will be losing two weeks of the summer holidays. She honestly does not think teachers would cope without a decent break as they are so worn out from what they have been doing, and then they are going to have to come up with another new teaching strategy for next year without yet being clear of the conditions they will be teaching under.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

I was firmly in the Better Together camp and think independence is economically risky, whatever way you look at it, but after 4 years of inane Brexit reasoning dominating the national conversation you can see why people who would be previously uncommitted might now think 'fudge it, let's go'.
One way or another Brexit is playing out by the end of this year - yes the government will to an extent be perpetually negotiating with the EU but it will become a background rumble in British politics not main bunfight (which I am guessing will be the fall out from Covid19).

'Scexit' surely puts a massive constitutional s*tfight back front and centre of the agenda for years - plus if it goes for Indy years of contentious negotiations, massive expense and no good options when it comes to currency.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by KnuckleDragger »

dargotronV.1 wrote:Knuckle Dragger, hate to break it to you but we're all fudged economically
No shit. However I think that an independent Scotland will be an order of magnitude more fudged than the rest of the UK. Approx 1/3 of working age Scots currently dependent on the WM Govt for furlough etc. Currently not impacting Holyrood finances directly.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

I noticed on the Beeb this a.m. that various reporters were saying that you'd never know restrictions were still in force from shops and parks near them.

If we go to 1m, then it is all over imho. There is a steady decline in observance as it is, and 1m is so close to normality that very rapidly we will be back to normal in terms of inter personal interactions. It would then be a waste of time keeping restrictions on businesses imho.

I am still surprised at the number of people who think everything will just bounce back to normal. A lot of redundancies are working through now as firms lay people off before thay have to start contributing so that may change views. But I expect a lot more to follow as some firms hung on but were critically injured.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by KnuckleDragger »

Once the tapering/end of furlough begins, I expect that there will be a big upswing in unemployment, particularly in the service/hospitality sector. Even if restrictions are lifted early next month, this summers tourist dividend is lost. Most S/M businesses will not be able to survive the effective loss of a years revenue.

Add that to the ongoing and pending job losses in O&G and Scotland is on the brink of significant hardship.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

KnuckleDragger wrote:Once the tapering/end of furlough begins, I expect that there will be a big upswing in unemployment, particularly in the service/hospitality sector. Even if restrictions are lifted early next month, this summers tourist dividend is lost. Most S/M businesses will not be able to survive the effective loss of a years revenue.

Add that to the ongoing and pending job losses in O&G and Scotland is on the brink of significant hardship.
Even with social distancing reduced to 1m (which is effectively back to normal) I'm wondering what will happen in the hospitality trade. I would expect there to be a percentage of people who will be avoiding pubs, restaurants etc. regardless of the official advice. So no tourism and reduced regular trade when the margins are often not that great anyway.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

robmatic wrote:
KnuckleDragger wrote:Once the tapering/end of furlough begins, I expect that there will be a big upswing in unemployment, particularly in the service/hospitality sector. Even if restrictions are lifted early next month, this summers tourist dividend is lost. Most S/M businesses will not be able to survive the effective loss of a years revenue.

Add that to the ongoing and pending job losses in O&G and Scotland is on the brink of significant hardship.
Even with social distancing reduced to 1m (which is effectively back to normal) I'm wondering what will happen in the hospitality trade. I would expect there to be a percentage of people who will be avoiding pubs, restaurants etc. regardless of the official advice. So no tourism and reduced regular trade when the margins are often not that great anyway.
Along with the polls on Indy at the weekend there was one where something like 2/3rds are worried about going back to the pub/restaurants etc, so your point is valid but and it is a big BUT opening up gives them a fighting chance, staying shut definitely kills them. Some will survive and in time could well thrive as it will take out a lot of the competition.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

robmatic wrote:
KnuckleDragger wrote:Once the tapering/end of furlough begins, I expect that there will be a big upswing in unemployment, particularly in the service/hospitality sector. Even if restrictions are lifted early next month, this summers tourist dividend is lost. Most S/M businesses will not be able to survive the effective loss of a years revenue.

Add that to the ongoing and pending job losses in O&G and Scotland is on the brink of significant hardship.
Even with social distancing reduced to 1m (which is effectively back to normal) I'm wondering what will happen in the hospitality trade. I would expect there to be a percentage of people who will be avoiding pubs, restaurants etc. regardless of the official advice. So no tourism and reduced regular trade when the margins are often not that great anyway.
Yep the industry is in really deep trouble. Even bars and restaurants that open won't be opening with the same number of staff as before.

We're heading for huge unemployment across the UK.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by inactionman »

I like haggis wrote:
robmatic wrote:
KnuckleDragger wrote:Once the tapering/end of furlough begins, I expect that there will be a big upswing in unemployment, particularly in the service/hospitality sector. Even if restrictions are lifted early next month, this summers tourist dividend is lost. Most S/M businesses will not be able to survive the effective loss of a years revenue.

Add that to the ongoing and pending job losses in O&G and Scotland is on the brink of significant hardship.
Even with social distancing reduced to 1m (which is effectively back to normal) I'm wondering what will happen in the hospitality trade. I would expect there to be a percentage of people who will be avoiding pubs, restaurants etc. regardless of the official advice. So no tourism and reduced regular trade when the margins are often not that great anyway.
Yep the industry is in really deep trouble. Even bars and restaurants that open won't be opening with the same number of staff as before.

We're heading for huge unemployment across the UK.
I'm wondering if, given other changes to general life like increased home working, we'd see less emphasis on Friday/Saturday nights out and a more distributed use of restaurants throughout the week.

The bars and restaurants in high-footfall places in George St etc would have always got decent numbers on weekdays and would struggle to pay the significant rates, but I'd wonder if the local places might see a flattening out of demand across the week.

I say this as there's no way I'd be going to a busy pub on a Friday night, although I might pop by midweek once the initial mad rush of idiots has passed.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

inactionman wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
robmatic wrote:
KnuckleDragger wrote:Once the tapering/end of furlough begins, I expect that there will be a big upswing in unemployment, particularly in the service/hospitality sector. Even if restrictions are lifted early next month, this summers tourist dividend is lost. Most S/M businesses will not be able to survive the effective loss of a years revenue.

Add that to the ongoing and pending job losses in O&G and Scotland is on the brink of significant hardship.
Even with social distancing reduced to 1m (which is effectively back to normal) I'm wondering what will happen in the hospitality trade. I would expect there to be a percentage of people who will be avoiding pubs, restaurants etc. regardless of the official advice. So no tourism and reduced regular trade when the margins are often not that great anyway.
Yep the industry is in really deep trouble. Even bars and restaurants that open won't be opening with the same number of staff as before.

We're heading for huge unemployment across the UK.
I'm wondering if, given other changes to general life like increased home working, we'd see less emphasis on Friday/Saturday nights out and a more distributed use of restaurants throughout the week.

The bars and restaurants in high-footfall places in George St etc would have always got decent numbers on weekdays and would struggle to pay the significant rates, but I'd wonder if the local places might see a flattening out of demand across the week.

I say this as there's no way I'd be going to a busy pub on a Friday night, although I might pop by midweek once the initial mad rush of idiots has passed.
Yeah that's a very interesting thought inactionman. I can definitely see the appeal of restaurants on a weeknight for people without kids who need to sort out all that. But other than some Thursdays people don't really want to get bluto on a weeknight so the pub and bar trade won't be so lucky there. Unless you can watch football and sports inside again.

The loss of office work will be felt very keenly at Pret, Leon and various coffee shops. It's going to be a bloodbath for the unemployment figures very soon.
Last edited by I like haggis on Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
This only works if you assume that the Westminster government are democrats at heart. Maybe a future Labour government would allow it as a matter of democratic principle. The current Tory government couldn't care less about such niceties. The last referendum was allowed because no-one seriously believed it would return a Yes majority. If the polls stay as they are or move even further out towards indy, I can't see the Conservative and Unionist Party willingly sign up to the UK's death warrant.

And under Sturgeon, the SNP are determined to be utterly spotless when it comes to the legal framework within which they want to operate, so all it will take is for the UK government to simply keep saying no to a new Edinburgh agreement and indy will never happen.

So either things change in London (a more democratically principled government, presumably a Labour one) or the SNP become more militant. Funnily enough, both would probably reduce support for indy somewhat, although I cannot see the lure of independence disappearing to any significant extent.

A final, but somewhat unlikely, scenario is that the Conservatives morph from British nationalism to English nationalism and decide to engineer an independent England by getting rid of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Maybe at some point someone will mention Wales but they'll just be tossed around on the constitutional storm and wash up somewhere.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
This only works if you assume that the Westminster government are democrats at heart. Maybe a future Labour government would allow it as a matter of democratic principle. The current Tory government couldn't care less about such niceties. The last referendum was allowed because no-one seriously believed it would return a Yes majority. If the polls stay as they are or move even further out towards indy, I can't see the Conservative and Unionist Party willingly sign up to the UK's death warrant.

And under Sturgeon, the SNP are determined to be utterly spotless when it comes to the legal framework within which they want to operate, so all it will take is for the UK government to simply keep saying no to a new Edinburgh agreement and indy will never happen.

So either things change in London (a more democratically principled government, presumably a Labour one) or the SNP become more militant. Funnily enough, both would probably reduce support for indy somewhat, although I cannot see the lure of independence disappearing to any significant extent.

A final, but somewhat unlikely, scenario is that the Conservatives morph from British nationalism to English nationalism and decide to engineer an independent England by getting rid of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Maybe at some point someone will mention Wales but they'll just be tossed around on the constitutional storm and wash up somewhere.
Well the SNP arent democratically principled as they demonstrate week in week out by calling for another vote after losing their once in a generation vote a mere 6 years ago so i wouldnt be casting those aspersions on anyone in Westminster. Like the EU they only agree with the vote when the voters agree with them.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
This only works if you assume that the Westminster government are democrats at heart. Maybe a future Labour government would allow it as a matter of democratic principle. The current Tory government couldn't care less about such niceties. The last referendum was allowed because no-one seriously believed it would return a Yes majority. If the polls stay as they are or move even further out towards indy, I can't see the Conservative and Unionist Party willingly sign up to the UK's death warrant.

And under Sturgeon, the SNP are determined to be utterly spotless when it comes to the legal framework within which they want to operate, so all it will take is for the UK government to simply keep saying no to a new Edinburgh agreement and indy will never happen.

So either things change in London (a more democratically principled government, presumably a Labour one) or the SNP become more militant. Funnily enough, both would probably reduce support for indy somewhat, although I cannot see the lure of independence disappearing to any significant extent.

A final, but somewhat unlikely, scenario is that the Conservatives morph from British nationalism to English nationalism and decide to engineer an independent England by getting rid of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Maybe at some point someone will mention Wales but they'll just be tossed around on the constitutional storm and wash up somewhere.
Well the SNP arent democratically principled as they demonstrate week in week out by calling for another vote after losing their once in a generation vote a mere 6 years ago so i wouldnt be casting those aspersions on anyone in Westminster. Like the EU they only agree with the vote when the voters agree with them.
That's a horseshit comparison. The SNP wrote a manifesto saying they would legislate for a new independence referendum if there was a material change in circumstances, and even specified what they would regards as such. Brexit was one. The public voted them in and they then did their best to act on their manifesto. Sounds pretty democratic to me.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by inactionman »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
This only works if you assume that the Westminster government are democrats at heart. Maybe a future Labour government would allow it as a matter of democratic principle. The current Tory government couldn't care less about such niceties. The last referendum was allowed because no-one seriously believed it would return a Yes majority. If the polls stay as they are or move even further out towards indy, I can't see the Conservative and Unionist Party willingly sign up to the UK's death warrant.

And under Sturgeon, the SNP are determined to be utterly spotless when it comes to the legal framework within which they want to operate, so all it will take is for the UK government to simply keep saying no to a new Edinburgh agreement and indy will never happen.

So either things change in London (a more democratically principled government, presumably a Labour one) or the SNP become more militant. Funnily enough, both would probably reduce support for indy somewhat, although I cannot see the lure of independence disappearing to any significant extent.

A final, but somewhat unlikely, scenario is that the Conservatives morph from British nationalism to English nationalism and decide to engineer an independent England by getting rid of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Maybe at some point someone will mention Wales but they'll just be tossed around on the constitutional storm and wash up somewhere.
Well the SNP arent democratically principled as they demonstrate week in week out by calling for another vote after losing their once in a generation vote a mere 6 years ago so i wouldnt be casting those aspersions on anyone in Westminster. Like the EU they only agree with the vote when the voters agree with them.
That's a horseshit comparison. The SNP wrote a manifesto saying they would legislate for a new independence referendum if there was a material change in circumstances, and even specified what they would regards as such. Brexit was one. The public voted them in and they then did their best to act on their manifesto. Sounds pretty democratic to me.
It just smacks of trying to have cake and eat it, or hedging of bets if that's a better turn of phrase - of course circumstances will change, so we can't concurrently say it's a decisive vote and that rights are reserved for another vote as the world keeps turning. It just seems like they're trying to catch the country during a bad day at the office and want to leave the door as wide open as they can.

I wasn't in Scotland at the time of the first referendum, so feel free to take or leave my comments, but it was definitely expressed as a once in a generation decision, not some thing that's subject to t&cs and and extended warranty.
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BlackMac
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by BlackMac »

slick wrote:
Edinburgh01 wrote:
slick wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Just passed 2 different street parties and seen at least a dozen other people staggering about. Its a joke we're pretending this isn't happening whilst small businesses go under.
Yup, lots of parties going on around here last night. During the day Inverleith Park was very busy with a few big groups, but most distancing and good natured - the queues for the take away beer at the Raeburn were huge!

The Meadows were absolutely heaving from what I saw, 3 or 4 sound systems set up (I’m told). It’s over really.

As I said further up, I’m not particularly laying blame on any government as this is unprecedented but my comment is that SG have misjudged this and are being too cautious, they have lost a big chunk of the public now
We had to take a horse to a vet over by Glasgow yesterday. We went via the Sma' Glen / Crieff and back by Loch Lubnaig / Callander. On both routes every lay bye and picnic area was full.

Today our Facebook is full of pictures from various beauty spots in the area that have been trashed. Literally piles of rubbish, including tents and all sorts, just dumped.

I can understand people wanting out, but why the mess? This has never happened before. Clearly there have been isolated instances, but this seems to be happening consistently in different areas.

Apparently there are issues in the Pentlands as well.
Yes, it’s very odd, saw a fair few tins lying about at Cramond this morning. As I said earlier in the thread, we have a real problem in Scotland with littering, I just don’t get it.

In saying that, I was in the Pentlands on Thursday and didn’t see anything - even went and checked out a site when I saw a group of young lads leaving after a night camping and it was clean. The big bins in the car park were overflowing and folk were still trying to stuff things in but that was about all I saw.
The mess being left at beauty spots seems to be all over the country. I saw the head Ranger from the Jurassic Coast saying he has never seen anything like it. It's almost as if some people, how don't normally go to these areas, are suddenly going there and have no respect.

I hike in the Pentlands most weekends and have not seen any issues. The only real problem is the amount of mountain bikers tearing up the trails and making it a real pain in the arse to walk. There used to be a 90/10% ratio of walkers to bikers but that seems to have been turned on it's head and there are some real dickheads tearing about.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
Agree LN I couldn't bring myself to vote for indy last time because of the currency question. I presumed there would be some sort of currency union with rUK for the £ but we'd eventually take up the euro.

And it's the same this time. I probably couldn't vote but not knowing what currency you used and both the pound and the euro fairly unappealing options. I just can't see where the appeal is as what will be used to pay for stuff?

I still think this QE is totally insane though. Surely isn't based in anything but experimental monetary policies.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
Agree LN I couldn't bring myself to vote for indy last time because of the currency question. I presumed there would be some sort of currency union with rUK for the £ but we'd eventually take up the euro.

And it's the same this time. I probably couldn't vote but not knowing what currency you used and both the pound and the euro fairly unappealing options. I just can't see where the appeal is as what will be used to pay for stuff?

I still think this QE is totally insane though. Surely isn't based in anything but experimental monetary policies.
Hey, the last forty years have been based on experimental economics, so why not.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
Agree LN I couldn't bring myself to vote for indy last time because of the currency question. I presumed there would be some sort of currency union with rUK for the £ but we'd eventually take up the euro.

And it's the same this time. I probably couldn't vote but not knowing what currency you used and both the pound and the euro fairly unappealing options. I just can't see where the appeal is as what will be used to pay for stuff?

I still think this QE is totally insane though. Surely isn't based in anything but experimental monetary policies.
Hey, the last forty years have been based on experimental economics, so why not.
I would argue longer than 40 years as we left the gold standard in 1931 but yes we are in unchartered territory and have been increasingly so. The action taken during the financial crisis has emboldened policy makers to go further and like you Haggis, i am concerned about this huge amount of QE which seems to just be directed towards the stock markets as there is no way the underlying fundamentals of the companies stack up against their stock price.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:On Indy and the vote that BT were the doommongers etc, the only thing that they really pushed was the questions on the currency and economy, which the nats still have not answered 6 years later, as there is no good answer.

Then we have this today:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12012369

The only thing that stopped the UK going bust was having our own central bank, under Salmonds plan we would be a failed state, that is not a maybe that is a definite as the plan was for us to continue using the pound but with no central bank. That is before we even get onto his oil price forecasts of well over a £100 pb when it hasnt been above $100 since the referendum and the industry is in terminal decline. The paper was a pipedream at best.

In saying all this we may end up voting for Indy, if that is what people want that's fine, they dont have the first idea of the economic pain they are inflicting on themselves but if that is what they want and the majority want it, crack on. If Westminster grants another vote, which they should if the SNP surpass the last vote or in truth even if they dont go backwards.

I think more companies will make meaningful moves this time even if it goes to a vote, nevermind a result, to try and insulate themselves and against the backdrop of the recovery from COVID the picture is very, very bleak.
Agree LN I couldn't bring myself to vote for indy last time because of the currency question. I presumed there would be some sort of currency union with rUK for the £ but we'd eventually take up the euro.

And it's the same this time. I probably couldn't vote but not knowing what currency you used and both the pound and the euro fairly unappealing options. I just can't see where the appeal is as what will be used to pay for stuff?

I still think this QE is totally insane though. Surely isn't based in anything but experimental monetary policies.
Hey, the last forty years have been based on experimental economics, so why not.
I would argue longer than 40 years as we left the gold standard in 1931 but yes we are in unchartered territory and have been increasingly so. The action taken during the financial crisis has emboldened policy makers to go further and like you Haggis, i am concerned about this huge amount of QE which seems to just be directed towards the stock markets as there is no way the underlying fundamentals of the companies stack up against their stock price.
I was too young (and was trading restricted from work) to take advantage of the last great dislocation between macro and prices between 2012 and 2020, I was determined I wasn't going to miss this one. Now that we're buckled in, watch global central banks bail out the market with the Greenspan Put on steroids.

Piketty's book was largely wrong with the exception of his central thesis (which I suppose makes it broadly right :lol: ): asset returns have outstripped labour returns. From the 80s onwards, this gap has become much larger as housing has trebled relative to income in that period.
I suppose for Scotland, as median ages of renters continues to rise inexorably- as it does across the West- people care less about the economic effects and hence, I wasn't surprised to see the median age where a voter is more likely a Conservative voter continues to rise. This same effect will manifest in a larger independence vote in Scotland as the property-owning class continues to shrink.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Caley_Red wrote:
I was too young (and was trading restricted from work) to take advantage of the last great dislocation between macro and prices between 2012 and 2020, I was determined I wasn't going to miss this one. Now that we're buckled in, watch global central banks bail out the market with the Greenspan Put on steroids.

Piketty's book was largely wrong with the exception of his central thesis (which I suppose makes it broadly right :lol: ): asset returns have outstripped labour returns. From the 80s onwards, this gap has become much larger as housing has trebled relative to income in that period.
I suppose for Scotland, as median ages of renters continues to rise inexorably- as it does across the West- people care less about the economic effects and hence, I wasn't surprised to see the median age where a voter is more likely a Conservative voter continues to rise. This same effect will manifest in a larger independence vote in Scotland as the property-owning class continues to shrink.
Which is quite funny, given the decline of the property owning class is a direct effect of Thatcherite policies.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

I see Johnson opening pubs, restaurants and barbers (no hurry for this, gave myself a 2 all over on sunday) and reducing the distance to 1m in the next fortnight. Sturgeon making an announcement on Wednesday that will see further easing and things being eased early.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

OptimisticJock wrote:I see Johnson opening pubs, restaurants and barbers (no hurry for this, gave myself a 2 all over on sunday) and reducing the distance to 1m in the next fortnight. Sturgeon making an announcement on Wednesday that will see further easing and things being eased early.
If she eases the 2m rule that makes life a lot easier for the pubs and restaurants, it will also make Swinney's life a hell of a lot easier as the number of kids they can get back into the classroom and will be near 100% on the stuff I've read. He then just needs to get the union onside and kids could and IMO should be back full time come August.

If they need to put additional measures in place for this to happen, like pubs keeping a register of who has been in, additional PPE or whatever for more vulnerable teachers etc so be it, that would certainly indicate a more can do attitude and life will be far closer to normal albeit we still need to be careful and maintain social distancing etc. I would also be perpared to forgo international travel etc for this sort of stuff to be allowed.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Aye, not sure why she's gobbing off about the 2m rule when its been announced schools to 100% reopen.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lemoentjie »

Lorthern Nights wrote: I would argue longer than 40 years as we left the gold standard in 1931 but yes we are in unchartered territory and have been increasingly so. The action taken during the financial crisis has emboldened policy makers to go further and like you Haggis, i am concerned about this huge amount of QE which seems to just be directed towards the stock markets as there is no way the underlying fundamentals of the companies stack up against their stock price.
Do you think that leaving the gold standard (and subsequently abandoning other systems such as Bretton Woods) was a bad idea for the global financial system?
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Biffer29 wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
I was too young (and was trading restricted from work) to take advantage of the last great dislocation between macro and prices between 2012 and 2020, I was determined I wasn't going to miss this one. Now that we're buckled in, watch global central banks bail out the market with the Greenspan Put on steroids.

Piketty's book was largely wrong with the exception of his central thesis (which I suppose makes it broadly right :lol: ): asset returns have outstripped labour returns. From the 80s onwards, this gap has become much larger as housing has trebled relative to income in that period.
I suppose for Scotland, as median ages of renters continues to rise inexorably- as it does across the West- people care less about the economic effects and hence, I wasn't surprised to see the median age where a voter is more likely a Conservative voter continues to rise. This same effect will manifest in a larger independence vote in Scotland as the property-owning class continues to shrink.
Which is quite funny, given the decline of the property owning class is a direct effect of Thatcherite policies.
Yep I think the end of conservatism comes with the end of home ownership and we aren't that far away.

Monetary policy makes no sense. The QE to keep asset prices high is bizarre as everyone knows they're overpriced but keeping them inflated is seen as a good thing? The economy being built on speculation and high assets isn't good for the health of countries and it's promising to see young people turn away from it. We need a healthy insourced, dynamic economy where creation of jobs and products is the goal not legal and financial behemoths.

All it takes is one country to say enough and this house of cards will fall apart. I'm watching Argentina closely.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Lemoentjie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: I would argue longer than 40 years as we left the gold standard in 1931 but yes we are in unchartered territory and have been increasingly so. The action taken during the financial crisis has emboldened policy makers to go further and like you Haggis, i am concerned about this huge amount of QE which seems to just be directed towards the stock markets as there is no way the underlying fundamentals of the companies stack up against their stock price.
Do you think that leaving the gold standard (and subsequently abandoning other systems such as Bretton Woods) was a bad idea for the global financial system?
No I view it as experimental which is what it is/was, fiat currency is effectively now backed by faith which the printing of money that is being undertaken will severly test. I do think a few of the measures undertaken with the financial crash merely kicked the can down the road and eventually there iwll be a day of reckoning, whether that is now or in the next couple of years with the stress that the government books will be under I dont know, wish i did but i dont.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

So anyone read Benny Higgins and his group of academics suggestions?

Summary from the beeb here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-53147806

Or the Times here:
Coronavirus in Scotland: Higgins report says Scots economy ‘needs £6bn’ to avoid mass youth unemployment
Greig Cameron, Kieran Andrews
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Campaigners called for a fair and green recovery as the economic advisory panel’s report was published yesterday

A generation of young people in Scotland will be scarred by unemployment unless £6 billion is injected into the country’s crippled economy, a group advising Nicola Sturgeon has warned.

Additional borrowing flexibility in the fiscal framework between Holyrood and Westminster is required to help fund recovery efforts while the Scottish government has been told that it will have to take stakes in private sector companies.

The advisory committee, formed by the Scottish government in April, published 25 recommendations for revitalising the economy with yesterday.

Benny Higgins, the former Tesco Bank chief executive who led the group, pointed out that Germany has announced support equivalent to 4 per cent of its GDP. He suggested an equivalent response in Scotland would be about £6 billion but acknowledged that Holyrood’s existing borrowing powers are limited to just £450 million.

Mr Higgins, 59, expressed a desire for a loosening of the existing fiscal framework and called on Holyrood to work speedily on the recommendations. He suggested that there would be tough decisions around which areas to prioritise and said: “Ideas are all well and good but execution is what it is about.

“In certain dilemmas it is not always about making the right choice, it is about making the choice you make right. You could do a lot with £6 billion.”

The scale of the economic challenges were underlined by official figures published last week that showed that GDP was down 2.5 per cent in the first three months of 2020 and fell by 18.9 per cent in April.

The unemployment rate in Scotland has risen to 4.6 per cent with the advisory group suggesting it is likely to have increased to about 7 per cent by the end of this month. It suggests a scheme to offer at least two years of secure employment for those aged 16 to 25 to avoid the “long-term scarring” that can result from long periods without a job. The Scottish government would provide a framework for the system and may provide funding for businesses to create positions.

The report suggests it will be necessary for the state to consider more intervention in the private sector to support large and small businesses by taking equity stakes in them.

Mr Higgins suggested banks would also need to play their part in supporting companies and warned not every business should be saved.

He said: “You need a framework of prioritisation. The danger is you just chase down every needy case.” Mr Higgins believes the government should look to bring business executives in to help with specific projects which could include managing holdings in companies on an arms’ length basis.

The wide-ranging report states individually tailored support plans will be needed for sectors such as care, charities, creative industries and tourism.

Education should be central with catch-up efforts for children who have missed months of schooling, guarantees of funding for Scottish universities and huge investment into skills provision and apprenticeships.

Nicola Sturgeon welcomed the publication of the report and has promised her government will report back on the next steps before the end of next month.
I would seriously question the recommendations on the SG taking stakes in companies given their piss poor record to date in this field, they simply dont have the expertise to evalulate what is good and what is bad, like most givernments.

I would also question the make-up of this panel, there isnt a business leader among them whether that would be the likes of Tom Hunter, Ian Wood, Martin Gilbert etc etc, dont know much about Benny Higgins but i believe he was a retail banker as opposed to business but could be wrong, just what ive picked up from other sources.

It does highlight what I and others have been saying though, the SG does not get business and havent for a while, it is a big gaping hole that has been ok when things have been ticking along, it's now a nightmare and i do worry that this is going to severely hamper our economic recovery as they are good at talking about things and setting our bold visions but they are terrible at execution.
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