Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

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Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
tc27
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

Massie getting his feet under the table at CSP I see.
Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist.
Ermmm...the quickest dip of the toe into Scottish constitutional politics online would disprove the soft and warm bit.
Caley_Red
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

Biffer29 wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
I was too young (and was trading restricted from work) to take advantage of the last great dislocation between macro and prices between 2012 and 2020, I was determined I wasn't going to miss this one. Now that we're buckled in, watch global central banks bail out the market with the Greenspan Put on steroids.

Piketty's book was largely wrong with the exception of his central thesis (which I suppose makes it broadly right :lol: ): asset returns have outstripped labour returns. From the 80s onwards, this gap has become much larger as housing has trebled relative to income in that period.
I suppose for Scotland, as median ages of renters continues to rise inexorably- as it does across the West- people care less about the economic effects and hence, I wasn't surprised to see the median age where a voter is more likely a Conservative voter continues to rise. This same effect will manifest in a larger independence vote in Scotland as the property-owning class continues to shrink.
Which is quite funny, given the decline of the property owning class is a direct effect of Thatcherite policies.

I posted a timeline somewhere else on this thread but although the Thatcher government was certainly the start, every government from then on bears responsibility as they all had a considerable hand in limiting supply and/or priming demand. None of them ever reversed the collapse in government supply either.
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OptimisticJock
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Caley_Red wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
I was too young (and was trading restricted from work) to take advantage of the last great dislocation between macro and prices between 2012 and 2020, I was determined I wasn't going to miss this one. Now that we're buckled in, watch global central banks bail out the market with the Greenspan Put on steroids.

Piketty's book was largely wrong with the exception of his central thesis (which I suppose makes it broadly right :lol: ): asset returns have outstripped labour returns. From the 80s onwards, this gap has become much larger as housing has trebled relative to income in that period.
I suppose for Scotland, as median ages of renters continues to rise inexorably- as it does across the West- people care less about the economic effects and hence, I wasn't surprised to see the median age where a voter is more likely a Conservative voter continues to rise. This same effect will manifest in a larger independence vote in Scotland as the property-owning class continues to shrink.
Which is quite funny, given the decline of the property owning class is a direct effect of Thatcherite policies.

I posted a timeline somewhere else on this thread but although the Thatcher government was certainly the start, every government from then on bears responsibility as they all had a considerable hand in limiting supply and/or priming demand. None of them ever reversed the collapse in government supply either.
No argument there. That economic model gained momentum so quickly and was so praised in media that it became the dominant paradigm in less than twenty years (started coming to prominence mid 70s, implemented from '80,adopted by Labour mid 90s).
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clydecloggie
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

OptimisticJock wrote:I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Don't think it is particularly British.

Wikipedia, for what it is worth, has a list on which the UK comes 45th out of 52 for home ownership (i.e. proportion of owner-occupied units to total residential units).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... rship_rate

And in The Netherlands, for instance, you get massive tax breaks if you own your house - interest on mortgages can be deducted from your income, so you pay less income tax. If you're a decent earner, it means you get 50% of your mortgage interest payments back from the tax man cash in hand. That simply means property prices are hugely inflated as people can afford to pay more, and the government is trying hard to find ways to get rid of it, but that's what it currently is.

I've got mortgages in both Scotland and The Netherlands, and the difference in systems is stark. The Scottish/UK system is much the better and the easier one, but the annual £8k cash in hand from Taxcloggie is always something to look forward to - even if that simply means I've been paying £16k in interest on a house that shouldn't be worth that much in any sane system.
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clydecloggie
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

OptimisticJock wrote:I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Places like Germany are keener on renting, what it does do is also make a population more mobile. If you dont have a house to sell it is easier for you to move locations.

Owning property isnt a bad thing, the problem has been the huge inflation we have seen in property and with the likes of AirBNB they are wrecking the embra property market and other places. I would prefer to see taxes on second homes really ramp up that would start to make it a lot less attractive on second home owners and the AirBnB crowd so that the local population have a fighting chance to get on the ladder.

We also need the older generations to sell their big houses to pay for their care which in turn frees up this stock for families coming through. We treally dont need old biddies living by themselves in a big 5 bedroom home just because they can.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
The problem with your own currency, which i agree with by the way if we are going alone, is that you will be starting with no bank reserves, no track record and a whopping deficit that needs addressed immediately to give the markets faith you are not like Venezuela or Zim, there is also the issue that smaller currencies are much more exposed when there key industries take a hit, such as Norway's Krone when the oil price tanks so they are considerably less stable.

That's just a starter for 10, there would be a big adjustment until it finds its band that would likely see a lot of inflation imported in.
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

I would seriously question the recommendations on the SG taking stakes in companies given their piss poor record to date in this field, they simply dont have the expertise to evalulate what is good and what is bad, like most givernments.

I would also question the make-up of this panel, there isnt a business leader among them whether that would be the likes of Tom Hunter, Ian Wood, Martin Gilbert etc etc, dont know much about Benny Higgins but i believe he was a retail banker as opposed to business but could be wrong, just what ive picked up from other sources.

It does highlight what I and others have been saying though, the SG does not get business and havent for a while, it is a big gaping hole that has been ok when things have been ticking along, it's now a nightmare and i do worry that this is going to severely hamper our economic recovery as they are good at talking about things and setting our bold visions but they are terrible at execution.
I alluded to this earlier on in the thread. Scotland has a substantial number of top class international business people and some of them should be round the table. All the guys you mentioned, and I'm sure it wasn't coincidence ;) have had their run ins with SG and they just won't get them involved. I've always though the SNP could soften a lot of NO's if they swallowed their pride and got these kind of people (and experienced NO politicians from across the parties) to sit down and actually talk.

It wouldn't be easy by any means but if we want to have any hope of getting out of this, or independance, these kinds of people must be involved.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Places like Germany are keener on renting, what it does do is also make a population more mobile. If you dont have a house to sell it is easier for you to move locations.

Owning property isnt a bad thing, the problem has been the huge inflation we have seen in property and with the likes of AirBNB they are wrecking the embra property market and other places. I would prefer to see taxes on second homes really ramp up that would start to make it a lot less attractive on second home owners and the AirBnB crowd so that the local population have a fighting chance to get on the ladder.

We also need the older generations to sell their big houses to pay for their care which in turn frees up this stock for families coming through. We treally dont need old biddies living by themselves in a big 5 bedroom home just because they can.
Also Germany's housing market is set up for renters with more security for them. The UK is set up for home ownership and your house becomes a large part of your social security. Renters don't have that.

Agree AirBnB has been a disaster for big cities. I've seen Edinburgh apartment blocks with almost every apartment having a lockbox. And yes home ownership should be the goal over rent extraction.

Agree about the older folks. Was a shame the "dementia tax" wasn't taken more seriously as a solution.
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clydecloggie
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
The problem with your own currency, which i agree with by the way if we are going alone, is that you will be starting with no bank reserves, no track record and a whopping deficit that needs addressed immediately to give the markets faith you are not like Venezuela or Zim, there is also the issue that smaller currencies are much more exposed when there key industries take a hit, such as Norway's Krone when the oil price tanks so they are considerably less stable.

That's just a starter for 10, there would be a big adjustment until it finds its band that would likely see a lot of inflation imported in.
That depends on the distribution of assets and liabilities on separation. The SG always said they would be entitled to ~10% of the UK's assets, in return for taking on 10% of liabilities. Seems fair - the other option is 0 assets and 0 liabilities - but to get going the liabilities would than go up much much quicker than the assets given likely unfavourable credit ratings.

Slovenia is probably the country that managed best upon gaining independence - wouldn't be the worst idea in the world to see how they did it.
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OptimisticJock
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
robmatic
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Places like Germany are keener on renting, what it does do is also make a population more mobile. If you dont have a house to sell it is easier for you to move locations.

Owning property isnt a bad thing, the problem has been the huge inflation we have seen in property and with the likes of AirBNB they are wrecking the embra property market and other places. I would prefer to see taxes on second homes really ramp up that would start to make it a lot less attractive on second home owners and the AirBnB crowd so that the local population have a fighting chance to get on the ladder.

We also need the older generations to sell their big houses to pay for their care which in turn frees up this stock for families coming through. We treally dont need old biddies living by themselves in a big 5 bedroom home just because they can.
Hopefully one effect of Covid-19 will be tanking the AirBnB market in Edinburgh city centre. I have a flat in Canonmills which I've been renting out since I emigrated and honestly the increases in rent and value around there haven't been sustainable - I can only assume this is the AirBnB effect.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
There's a real shortage of beer gardens in Edinburgh at the best of times. Imagine how rammed they will be.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Pubs open on 15th July.

If i was a pub owner i would just hold off from putting up a marquee type things and open proper on 15th, not sure the extra cost would be worth the hassle.

How does that date work for your shift pattern?
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Pubs open on 15th July.

If i was a pub owner i would just hold off from putting up a marquee type things and open proper on 15th, not sure the extra cost would be worth the hassle.

How does that date work for your shift pattern?
Very well thankfully 😂😂
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
The problem with your own currency, which i agree with by the way if we are going alone, is that you will be starting with no bank reserves, no track record and a whopping deficit that needs addressed immediately to give the markets faith you are not like Venezuela or Zim, there is also the issue that smaller currencies are much more exposed when there key industries take a hit, such as Norway's Krone when the oil price tanks so they are considerably less stable.

That's just a starter for 10, there would be a big adjustment until it finds its band that would likely see a lot of inflation imported in.
That depends on the distribution of assets and liabilities on separation. The SG always said they would be entitled to ~10% of the UK's assets, in return for taking on 10% of liabilities. Seems fair - the other option is 0 assets and 0 liabilities - but to get going the liabilities would than go up much much quicker than the assets given likely unfavourable credit ratings.

Slovenia is probably the country that managed best upon gaining independence - wouldn't be the worst idea in the world to see how they did it.
Slovenia now using the Euro of course. If the plan is to go for EU membership and Independence, they should put a road map out on how it actually will look.

People then know, i vote Indy, i will be using the euro and we will be part of the EU with all its benefits (and weaknesses, like fisheries back in the CFP) and people have a clear and believable choice on their hands.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

OptimisticJock wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Pubs open on 15th July.

If i was a pub owner i would just hold off from putting up a marquee type things and open proper on 15th, not sure the extra cost would be worth the hassle.

How does that date work for your shift pattern?
Very well thankfully 😂😂
:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :twisted:
dpedin
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

Hearing numbers with covid19 in hospital in my area are now very, very low - both ICU and acute beds. In many smaller more rural board areas there are no patients at all in hospital. OK there will be a number of cases in the community but numbers have fallen very considerably in last month. Test and Protect numbers coming through are also very low and there is more than sufficient capacity to deal with the small numbers, now ramping up for expected small peak in August/September once lock down and schools impact comes through and more likely peak at the end of the year. Looks like Wee Nic's strategy to try and get rid of it as much as possible now before opening up is working and any expected outbreaks once lock down is lifted will be dealt with. Fingers crossed.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

robmatic wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Places like Germany are keener on renting, what it does do is also make a population more mobile. If you dont have a house to sell it is easier for you to move locations.

Owning property isnt a bad thing, the problem has been the huge inflation we have seen in property and with the likes of AirBNB they are wrecking the embra property market and other places. I would prefer to see taxes on second homes really ramp up that would start to make it a lot less attractive on second home owners and the AirBnB crowd so that the local population have a fighting chance to get on the ladder.

We also need the older generations to sell their big houses to pay for their care which in turn frees up this stock for families coming through. We treally dont need old biddies living by themselves in a big 5 bedroom home just because they can.
Hopefully one effect of Covid-19 will be tanking the AirBnB market in Edinburgh city centre. I have a flat in Canonmills which I've been renting out since I emigrated and honestly the increases in rent and value around there haven't been sustainable - I can only assume this is the AirBnB effect.
I left Scotland in 2016 and have been shocked when browsing house prices in Edinburgh, they must have went up about 20% YoY! Genuinely hope it ruins many of these people who, too poorly read to buy equities or bonds, leveraged themselves up to rob people of their first step on the housing ladder, all so they could make a buck on AirBnB.

Where did you emigrate to?
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by BlackMac »

dpedin wrote:Hearing numbers with covid19 in hospital in my area are now very, very low - both ICU and acute beds. In many smaller more rural board areas there are no patients at all in hospital. OK there will be a number of cases in the community but numbers have fallen very considerably in last month. Test and Protect numbers coming through are also very low and there is more than sufficient capacity to deal with the small numbers, now ramping up for expected small peak in August/September once lock down and schools impact comes through and more likely peak at the end of the year. Looks like Wee Nic's strategy to try and get rid of it as much as possible now before opening up is working and any expected outbreaks once lock down is lifted will be dealt with. Fingers crossed.

Yeah, whether through luck or judgement, the cases and deaths are now proportionately tiny compared to England and Wales.

I think our poorer weather might play a part as we go forward as we are less likely to congregate in huge numbers at tourist in spots and parks etc.
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

dpedin wrote:Hearing numbers with covid19 in hospital in my area are now very, very low - both ICU and acute beds. In many smaller more rural board areas there are no patients at all in hospital. OK there will be a number of cases in the community but numbers have fallen very considerably in last month. Test and Protect numbers coming through are also very low and there is more than sufficient capacity to deal with the small numbers, now ramping up for expected small peak in August/September once lock down and schools impact comes through and more likely peak at the end of the year. Looks like Wee Nic's strategy to try and get rid of it as much as possible now before opening up is working and any expected outbreaks once lock down is lifted will be dealt with. Fingers crossed.
Yeah, hopefully. I’m of the opinion that another couple of weeks now is worth not having to go through this again to the same extent, although I realise that every day is a hardship in a lot of businesses. My worry is that the suppression up here will be undermined by visitors from south of the border, as the earlier release from lockdown has meant the decrease hasn’t been as evident.
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

BlackMac wrote:
dpedin wrote:Hearing numbers with covid19 in hospital in my area are now very, very low - both ICU and acute beds. In many smaller more rural board areas there are no patients at all in hospital. OK there will be a number of cases in the community but numbers have fallen very considerably in last month. Test and Protect numbers coming through are also very low and there is more than sufficient capacity to deal with the small numbers, now ramping up for expected small peak in August/September once lock down and schools impact comes through and more likely peak at the end of the year. Looks like Wee Nic's strategy to try and get rid of it as much as possible now before opening up is working and any expected outbreaks once lock down is lifted will be dealt with. Fingers crossed.

Yeah, whether through luck or judgement, the cases and deaths are now proportionately tiny compared to England and Wales.

I think our poorer weather might play a part as we go forward as we are less likely to congregate in huge numbers at tourist in spots and parks etc.
I have July 6th circled as the start of the Scottish Hurricane season.
bimboman
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by bimboman »

Nats are hilarious.....

“Wee Nics strategy “ was and is almost identical to the rest of the UK’s , the “othering “ again is PR.
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

Biffer29 wrote:
dpedin wrote:Hearing numbers with covid19 in hospital in my area are now very, very low - both ICU and acute beds. In many smaller more rural board areas there are no patients at all in hospital. OK there will be a number of cases in the community but numbers have fallen very considerably in last month. Test and Protect numbers coming through are also very low and there is more than sufficient capacity to deal with the small numbers, now ramping up for expected small peak in August/September once lock down and schools impact comes through and more likely peak at the end of the year. Looks like Wee Nic's strategy to try and get rid of it as much as possible now before opening up is working and any expected outbreaks once lock down is lifted will be dealt with. Fingers crossed.
Yeah, hopefully. I’m of the opinion that another couple of weeks now is worth not having to go through this again to the same extent, although I realise that every day is a hardship in a lot of businesses. My worry is that the suppression up here will be undermined by visitors from south of the border, as the earlier release from lockdown has meant the decrease hasn’t been as evident.
Yes, it is a bit of a worry. In saying that it seems to me that the majority of visitors we get from Ingerland tend to be the right sort who will take a bit of care.

We are currently discussing a run down to Buckinghamshire to stay with my mum for a couple of weeks. Thinking an overnight run to avoid crowds at service stations etc. She has been shielding for a few months so going to go into hibernation ourselves for a week and probably won't get out to see friends when we are down. Fun times.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
I see there were big parties on the Meadows again yesterday. That's one thing, and in a way I understand the young un's, but the f**king mess they left again :x why is this happening! This is meant to be the new sharing, caring, environmentaly friendly generation.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

slick wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
I see there were big parties on the Meadows again yesterday. That's one thing, and in a way I understand the young un's, but the f**king mess they left again :x why is this happening! This is meant to be the new sharing, caring, environmentaly friendly generation.
The environment is not the in thing at the moment. It's like they only really care when they get a day off school.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Womack »

Or when they've not been drinking alcopops in the sun for several hours...
tc27
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
I actually agree that a perpetrate floating currency and bank is the only realistic course of action in the long term. Not only does it actually give a government the tools it needs to make Independence a worthwhile objective but its also a pre requisite for eventually joining the EU which since 2016 seems to have become an urgent policy objective.

However it does come with a number of downsides from what I understand:

1. Anyone with a debt currently held in Sterling (everyone with a mortgage) is screwed due to a likely unfavourable exchange rate.
2. Anyone who can will move their money out of Scotland before they are forced to swap for the new currency.
3. You are introducing a currency barrier to trade with your most important market (rUK).

This is why I think the SNP will probably try and push Sterlingisation again - again this brings huge problems of its own the biggest being that the new treasury would not have the funds to defend a peg.

At some point if there is going to be another refernedum these points will be addressed. The lack of answers on currency that are not awful and the implications for public spending VS the dislike of Boris..
Biffer29
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:18 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

tc27 wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
I actually agree that a perpetrate floating currency and bank is the only realistic course of action in the long term. Not only does it actually give a government the tools it needs to make Independence a worthwhile objective but its also a pre requisite for eventually joining the EU which since 2016 seems to have become an urgent policy objective.

However it does come with a number of downsides from what I understand:

1. Anyone with a debt currently held in Sterling (everyone with a mortgage) is screwed due to a likely unfavourable exchange rate.
2. Anyone who can will move their money out of Scotland before they are forced to swap for the new currency.
3. You are introducing a currency barrier to trade with your most important market (rUK).

This is why I think the SNP will probably try and push Sterlingisation again - again this brings huge problems of its own the biggest being that the new treasury would not have the funds to defend a peg.

At some point if there is going to be another refernedum these points will be addressed. The lack of answers on currency that are not awful and the implications for public spending VS the dislike of Boris..
Part of this also relates to how the split is managed - the Bank of England, despite its name, is the central bank of the UK. That is an asset of the state. So what is Scotland's share of that asset and how is that worked out? Is there a gradualised approach that would allow the Scottish state to own a share of the Bank of England to start with, which might be time bound? This could allow for a temporary sterlingisation approach which would allow a longer period of time for currency transition? Obviously there would be massive practicalities to be overcome, but are they larger or more favourable than splitting the BoE's assets?
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Biffer29 wrote:
tc27 wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
I actually agree that a perpetrate floating currency and bank is the only realistic course of action in the long term. Not only does it actually give a government the tools it needs to make Independence a worthwhile objective but its also a pre requisite for eventually joining the EU which since 2016 seems to have become an urgent policy objective.

However it does come with a number of downsides from what I understand:

1. Anyone with a debt currently held in Sterling (everyone with a mortgage) is screwed due to a likely unfavourable exchange rate.
2. Anyone who can will move their money out of Scotland before they are forced to swap for the new currency.
3. You are introducing a currency barrier to trade with your most important market (rUK).

This is why I think the SNP will probably try and push Sterlingisation again - again this brings huge problems of its own the biggest being that the new treasury would not have the funds to defend a peg.

At some point if there is going to be another refernedum these points will be addressed. The lack of answers on currency that are not awful and the implications for public spending VS the dislike of Boris..
Part of this also relates to how the split is managed - the Bank of England, despite its name, is the central bank of the UK. That is an asset of the state. So what is Scotland's share of that asset and how is that worked out? Is there a gradualised approach that would allow the Scottish state to own a share of the Bank of England to start with, which might be time bound? This could allow for a temporary sterlingisation approach which would allow a longer period of time for currency transition? Obviously there would be massive practicalities to be overcome, but are they larger or more favourable than splitting the BoE's assets?
That is Nat fantasyland, we leave, we leave we dont get a share of the BoE when we leave, there is absolutely no way the RoUK would remotely countenance that and we have nothing to bargain with for it, the only minor thing we could offer would be to take a share of the debt but that is not enough for the RoUK longterm to be bothered with, it would only be 10% or so, so they are far better going nope and threaten tariffs and trade barriers etc if we dont take our share.

There is absolutely no way we are getting any of their assets whether we like that answer or not.
Biffer29
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:18 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
tc27 wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
I actually agree that a perpetrate floating currency and bank is the only realistic course of action in the long term. Not only does it actually give a government the tools it needs to make Independence a worthwhile objective but its also a pre requisite for eventually joining the EU which since 2016 seems to have become an urgent policy objective.

However it does come with a number of downsides from what I understand:

1. Anyone with a debt currently held in Sterling (everyone with a mortgage) is screwed due to a likely unfavourable exchange rate.
2. Anyone who can will move their money out of Scotland before they are forced to swap for the new currency.
3. You are introducing a currency barrier to trade with your most important market (rUK).

This is why I think the SNP will probably try and push Sterlingisation again - again this brings huge problems of its own the biggest being that the new treasury would not have the funds to defend a peg.

At some point if there is going to be another refernedum these points will be addressed. The lack of answers on currency that are not awful and the implications for public spending VS the dislike of Boris..
Part of this also relates to how the split is managed - the Bank of England, despite its name, is the central bank of the UK. That is an asset of the state. So what is Scotland's share of that asset and how is that worked out? Is there a gradualised approach that would allow the Scottish state to own a share of the Bank of England to start with, which might be time bound? This could allow for a temporary sterlingisation approach which would allow a longer period of time for currency transition? Obviously there would be massive practicalities to be overcome, but are they larger or more favourable than splitting the BoE's assets?
That is Nat fantasyland, we leave, we leave we dont get a share of the BoE when we leave, there is absolutely no way the RoUK would remotely countenance that and we have nothing to bargain with for it, the only minor thing we could offer would be to take a share of the debt but that is not enough for the RoUK longterm to be bothered with, it would only be 10% or so, so they are far better going nope and threaten tariffs and trade barriers etc if we dont take our share.

There is absolutely no way we are getting any of their assets whether we like that answer or not.
And that's exactly the line I'd expect you to take. There are other parts of leverage we can use. Without Scotland the UK is currently incapable of being a nuclear power - nowhere to store the nukes, no deep port for subs. They'd need to station them in France or the USA. They could build new facilities (although it's hard to find somewhere to replicate Coulport) but that would take time. A transition period.

This view of Scotland as having nothing, being utterly subservient to and dependent on England in every way has been indoctrinated into people so much that they can't see past it and don't even realise it's been done to them.
robmatic
Posts: 204
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:11 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

Caley_Red wrote:
robmatic wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:I may have this wrong, but is owning property not quite a British thing (at least in europe)? Is the norm not to rent?
Places like Germany are keener on renting, what it does do is also make a population more mobile. If you dont have a house to sell it is easier for you to move locations.

Owning property isnt a bad thing, the problem has been the huge inflation we have seen in property and with the likes of AirBNB they are wrecking the embra property market and other places. I would prefer to see taxes on second homes really ramp up that would start to make it a lot less attractive on second home owners and the AirBnB crowd so that the local population have a fighting chance to get on the ladder.

We also need the older generations to sell their big houses to pay for their care which in turn frees up this stock for families coming through. We treally dont need old biddies living by themselves in a big 5 bedroom home just because they can.
Hopefully one effect of Covid-19 will be tanking the AirBnB market in Edinburgh city centre. I have a flat in Canonmills which I've been renting out since I emigrated and honestly the increases in rent and value around there haven't been sustainable - I can only assume this is the AirBnB effect.
I left Scotland in 2016 and have been shocked when browsing house prices in Edinburgh, they must have went up about 20% YoY! Genuinely hope it ruins many of these people who, too poorly read to buy equities or bonds, leveraged themselves up to rob people of their first step on the housing ladder, all so they could make a buck on AirBnB.

Where did you emigrate to?
To Turkey (Istanbul) in 2014.
robmatic
Posts: 204
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:11 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

slick wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
I see there were big parties on the Meadows again yesterday. That's one thing, and in a way I understand the young un's, but the f**king mess they left again :x why is this happening! This is meant to be the new sharing, caring, environmentaly friendly generation.
It takes minimal effort to take your shit away at the end of the day as well. I could always manage it when I was a student.
tc27
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

A 10% share of the BoE's assets is going to be a quantity of gold and foreign currency.

Scotland could play some cards regarding allowing a lease on Trident basing in exchange for some stuff but nothing that's going to force the UK government to agree to a formal currency union...something ruled out in 2014 anyway:

https://www.ft.com/content/539264c8-949 ... 144feab7de

And that's exactly the line I'd expect you to take. There are other parts of leverage we can use. Without Scotland the UK is currently incapable of being a nuclear power - nowhere to store the nukes, no deep port for subs. They'd need to station them in France or the USA. They could build new facilities (although it's hard to find somewhere to replicate Coulport) but that would take time. A transition period.

This view of Scotland as having nothing, being utterly subservient to and dependent on England in every way has been indoctrinated into people so much that they can't see past it and don't even realise it's been done to them.
It would be ridiculous to hold that view...

But we have existed as a single unitary state for three centuries, our economies and institutions have become en-twinned - pointing out that unwinding this is not going to be easy or quick and will involve quite a lot of pain is not 'subservience'.

It should be evident from the last four years that a smaller member seceding from a larger entity is in the weaker position...and relatively the position of the SNPs negotiators following a yes vote would be much much weaker than the UK's negotiators following Brexit.
Biffer29
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:18 pm

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

tc27 wrote:A 10% share of the BoE's assets is going to be a quantity of gold and foreign currency.

Scotland could play some cards regarding allowing a lease on Trident basing in exchange for some stuff but nothing that's going to force the UK government to agree to a formal currency union...something ruled out in 2014 anyway:

https://www.ft.com/content/539264c8-949 ... 144feab7de

And that's exactly the line I'd expect you to take. There are other parts of leverage we can use. Without Scotland the UK is currently incapable of being a nuclear power - nowhere to store the nukes, no deep port for subs. They'd need to station them in France or the USA. They could build new facilities (although it's hard to find somewhere to replicate Coulport) but that would take time. A transition period.

This view of Scotland as having nothing, being utterly subservient to and dependent on England in every way has been indoctrinated into people so much that they can't see past it and don't even realise it's been done to them.
It would be ridiculous to hold that view...

But we have existed as a single unitary state for three centuries, our economies and institutions have become en-twinned - pointing out that unwinding this is not going to be easy or quick and will involve quite a lot of pain is not 'subservience'.

It should be evident from the last four years that a smaller member seceding from a larger entity is in the weaker position...and relatively the position of the SNPs negotiators following a yes vote would be much much weaker than the UK's negotiators following Brexit.
Yep, I’m not someone who thinks we can detach in a matter of a couple of years. But just highlighting that NL’s absolutism on this is wrong.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Biffer29 wrote:
And that's exactly the line I'd expect you to take. There are other parts of leverage we can use. Without Scotland the UK is currently incapable of being a nuclear power - nowhere to store the nukes, no deep port for subs. They'd need to station them in France or the USA. They could build new facilities (although it's hard to find somewhere to replicate Coulport) but that would take time. A transition period.

This view of Scotland as having nothing, being utterly subservient to and dependent on England in every way has been indoctrinated into people so much that they can't see past it and don't even realise it's been done to them.
The line i am taking is what will happen. This is not subservient this is fact, we are leaving and we will be leaving the currency and central bank that underpines this. The fact you even use the term subservient shows the chip on the shoulder nats have.

Putting the nuclear deterrent somewhere will happen and if the barrier to it becomes too large then they will just build it somewhere else. That is what happens, the SNP wdont want any nukes in Scotland and that has been their policy since inception, so you are now thinking they will use this as a bargaining chip for them to stay in Scotland, the SNP love a good contradiction though.

Brexit is stupid idea as is this form of nationalism, it's economic vanadalism trumped through nonsense of us being subservient, pile of pish is what it is.
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