Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

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Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
And that's exactly the line I'd expect you to take. There are other parts of leverage we can use. Without Scotland the UK is currently incapable of being a nuclear power - nowhere to store the nukes, no deep port for subs. They'd need to station them in France or the USA. They could build new facilities (although it's hard to find somewhere to replicate Coulport) but that would take time. A transition period.

This view of Scotland as having nothing, being utterly subservient to and dependent on England in every way has been indoctrinated into people so much that they can't see past it and don't even realise it's been done to them.
The line i am taking is what will happen. This is not subservient this is fact, we are leaving and we will be leaving the currency and central bank that underpines this. The fact you even use the term subservient shows the chip on the shoulder nats have.

Putting the nuclear deterrent somewhere will happen and if the barrier to it becomes too large then they will just build it somewhere else. That is what happens, the SNP wdont want any nukes in Scotland and that has been their policy since inception, so you are now thinking they will use this as a bargaining chip for them to stay in Scotland, the SNP love a good contradiction though.

Brexit is stupid idea as is this form of nationalism, it's economic vanadalism trumped through nonsense of us being subservient, pile of pish is what it is.
Im glad you’re letting the rest of us have the benefit of your precognition. Thanks.
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OptimisticJock
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Faslane will be maintained until another sub port can be built. The SNP will obviously use this is a bargaining chip but I can't see it being a huge one as it will only be for a few years. The Royal Navy and rUK government won't have Trident sitting in a foreign country a day longed than necessary.
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clydecloggie
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Lorthern Nights wrote: Slovenia now using the Euro of course. If the plan is to go for EU membership and Independence, they should put a road map out on how it actually will look.

People then know, i vote Indy, i will be using the euro and we will be part of the EU with all its benefits (and weaknesses, like fisheries back in the CFP) and people have a clear and believable choice on their hands.
Got interested and looked it up. Slovenia voted for independence December 1990, gained its independence in June 1991, kept using the Yugoslav dinar until it switched to its own currency, the tolar, in October 1991. It then converted to the Euro in 2007. Now, Yugoslavia was a disintegrating country by that time, at war with itself and suffering from hyperinflation - but it was also a fully fledged state with all the institutions that go with it.
Similarly, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia was agreed in July 1992 and took effect on 1 Jan 1993 - barely six months later. (Funnily enough, with allegedly only about 1/3rd of the population supporting it).

Slovenia, Slovakia and Czechia show that it is possible to be independent relatively quickly, andcto flourish after independence. Arguing that it would take longer to untangle UK ties than Yugoslav or Czechoslovakian ties would seem to me just another example of misplaced exceptionalism. Law, education and health are already separate. There are separate Scottish tax codes. Finance is a big one, distribution of assets and liabilities is a big one, unless the answer is 'nothing to Scotland'. Defence is another big one. Border arrangements. Etc. But it can be done.

And even if Scotland joins the EU there is simply no requirement to join the Euro - this is a myth. Yes, it is true that you have to commit to adopting the Euro at an unspecified point in the future, but 'unspecified point in the future' is simply EU speak for 'never'. See Denmark, Sweden who still use their own currency and have absolutely no desire, or pressure put on them, to convert to the Euro.

Whether joining the Euro makes sense or not is another debate with its own pros and cons, but 'you'd have to use the Euro' is a bullshit argument against joining the EU.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: Slovenia now using the Euro of course. If the plan is to go for EU membership and Independence, they should put a road map out on how it actually will look.

People then know, i vote Indy, i will be using the euro and we will be part of the EU with all its benefits (and weaknesses, like fisheries back in the CFP) and people have a clear and believable choice on their hands.
Got interested and looked it up. Slovenia voted for independence December 1990, gained its independence in June 1991, kept using the Yugoslav dinar until it switched to its own currency, the tolar, in October 1991. It then converted to the Euro in 2007. Now, Yugoslavia was a disintegrating country by that time, at war with itself and suffering from hyperinflation - but it was also a fully fledged state with all the institutions that go with it.
Similarly, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia was agreed in July 1992 and took effect on 1 Jan 1993 - barely six months later. (Funnily enough, with allegedly only about 1/3rd of the population supporting it).

Slovenia, Slovakia and Czechia show that it is possible to be independent relatively quickly, andcto flourish after independence. Arguing that it would take longer to untangle UK ties than Yugoslav or Czechoslovakian ties would seem to me just another example of misplaced exceptionalism. Law, education and health are already separate. There are separate Scottish tax codes. Finance is a big one, distribution of assets and liabilities is a big one, unless the answer is 'nothing to Scotland'. Defence is another big one. Border arrangements. Etc. But it can be done.

And even if Scotland joins the EU there is simply no requirement to join the Euro - this is a myth. Yes, it is true that you have to commit to adopting the Euro at an unspecified point in the future, but 'unspecified point in the future' is simply EU speak for 'never'. See Denmark, Sweden who still use their own currency and have absolutely no desire, or pressure put on them, to convert to the Euro.

Whether joining the Euro makes sense or not is another debate with its own pros and cons, but 'you'd have to use the Euro' is a bullshit argument against joining the EU.
Well for starters we arent disintegrating like Yugoslavia with a fucked economy, so the two arent actually remotely comparable. The only way for them was up, which is markedly different for us, where the only way is down.

You are also wrong on the Euro, just like the UK was not committed to joining the Euro one of the opt outs we had, that is not the same for new members who do have to adopt the euro, tbh joining the euro would be better than having our own currency anyway for the stability it would provide, would also reign in being able to run massive deficits year on year and have to live within our means which is no bad thing.

So apart form that, yep your post is spot on.

Look you lads want Indy, fine but dont kid yourselves or anyone else that it going to be fine, it wont be, it will be a massive deterioration in living standards and you want this in spite of that. Which tbh is to be admired even though i dont believe you understand what this will actually entail.
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OptimisticJock
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Lorthern Nights wrote: Look you lads want Indy, fine but dont kid yourselves or anyone else that it going to be fine, it wont be, it will be a massive deterioration in living standards and you want this in spite of that. Which tbh is to be admired even though i dont believe you understand what this will actually entail.
I dont think a lot of people want it in spite of that as they genuinely don't seem to think it will happen.
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HKCJ
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by HKCJ »

The fcuking state of the meadows again :x Me and the missus went down to Cramond last night and I was pleasantly surprised by the behaviour of the younguns there. No litter to speak of and no antisocial drunkenness from what we saw. Tonnes of very attractive young girls In G-bangers too... it was like being in Rio full of peely-wallie wee arses.
The other thing we noticed was just how ethnically and nationally diverse the crowd was there. I guess I live in a New Town bubble where I assume everyone is middle class English but I couldn’t believe the numbers of East Africans, West Africans, Indians, Spanish, Germans and Poles. It was good to see.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Biffer29 wrote:
Im glad you’re letting the rest of us have the benefit of your precognition. Thanks.
Just like the Brexiteers were told what will happen and they ignored it and pressed on anyway and have found that the EU surprisingly enough wont be easy to negotiate with and allow you to have your cake and eat it such as the pound collapsing 25% overnight on the vote, you hardly need to be Nostradamus.

The economics of it are a complete non-starter but like Brexit the majority of the population are easily swayed by heart and passion because they simply dont understand what it will entail and nationalism loves that.
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
Im glad you’re letting the rest of us have the benefit of your precognition. Thanks.
Just like the Brexiteers were told what will happen and they ignored it and pressed on anyway and have found that the EU surprisingly enough wont be easy to negotiate with and allow you to have your cake and eat it such as the pound collapsing 25% overnight on the vote, you hardly need to be Nostradamus.

The economics of it are a complete non-starter but like Brexit the majority of the population are easily swayed by heart and passion because they simply dont understand what it will entail and nationalism loves that.
What you’ve assigned to me is not what I think. Seems you reckon you’re psychic too.
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clydecloggie
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by clydecloggie »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: Slovenia now using the Euro of course. If the plan is to go for EU membership and Independence, they should put a road map out on how it actually will look.

People then know, i vote Indy, i will be using the euro and we will be part of the EU with all its benefits (and weaknesses, like fisheries back in the CFP) and people have a clear and believable choice on their hands.
Got interested and looked it up. Slovenia voted for independence December 1990, gained its independence in June 1991, kept using the Yugoslav dinar until it switched to its own currency, the tolar, in October 1991. It then converted to the Euro in 2007. Now, Yugoslavia was a disintegrating country by that time, at war with itself and suffering from hyperinflation - but it was also a fully fledged state with all the institutions that go with it.
Similarly, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia was agreed in July 1992 and took effect on 1 Jan 1993 - barely six months later. (Funnily enough, with allegedly only about 1/3rd of the population supporting it).

Slovenia, Slovakia and Czechia show that it is possible to be independent relatively quickly, andcto flourish after independence. Arguing that it would take longer to untangle UK ties than Yugoslav or Czechoslovakian ties would seem to me just another example of misplaced exceptionalism. Law, education and health are already separate. There are separate Scottish tax codes. Finance is a big one, distribution of assets and liabilities is a big one, unless the answer is 'nothing to Scotland'. Defence is another big one. Border arrangements. Etc. But it can be done.

And even if Scotland joins the EU there is simply no requirement to join the Euro - this is a myth. Yes, it is true that you have to commit to adopting the Euro at an unspecified point in the future, but 'unspecified point in the future' is simply EU speak for 'never'. See Denmark, Sweden who still use their own currency and have absolutely no desire, or pressure put on them, to convert to the Euro.

Whether joining the Euro makes sense or not is another debate with its own pros and cons, but 'you'd have to use the Euro' is a bullshit argument against joining the EU.
Well for starters we arent disintegrating like Yugoslavia with a fucked economy, so the two arent actually remotely comparable. The only way for them was up, which is markedly different for us, where the only way is down.

You are also wrong on the Euro, just like the UK was not committed to joining the Euro one of the opt outs we had, that is not the same for new members who do have to adopt the euro, tbh joining the euro would be better than having our own currency anyway for the stability it would provide, would also reign in being able to run massive deficits year on year and have to live within our means which is no bad thing.

So apart form that, yep your post is spot on.

Look you lads want Indy, fine but dont kid yourselves or anyone else that it going to be fine, it wont be, it will be a massive deterioration in living standards and you want this in spite of that. Which tbh is to be admired even though i dont believe you understand what this will actually entail.
Who's in la la land now. The only way is down from where the UK currently is? Aye, sure. Massive inequality that's only growing further, closing the curtains to our nearest neighbours out of some misplaced superiority complex, the country is declining, creaking, old and tired everywhere you go - except for a few scattered shiny bits. But sure, we're at the summit of Everest and the only way is down. We're not. We're not even at base camp. Damn right I want the hard reset of indy because for the last decade or so, maybe longer, we've just been shuffling numbly towards the abyss.

And once again, for new EU members the deal is exactly the same as it is for Denmark and Sweden - you sign up for it, but you never actually have to make good on your promise. It's open-ended.
Wylie Coyote
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Wylie Coyote »

clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: Slovenia now using the Euro of course. If the plan is to go for EU membership and Independence, they should put a road map out on how it actually will look.

People then know, i vote Indy, i will be using the euro and we will be part of the EU with all its benefits (and weaknesses, like fisheries back in the CFP) and people have a clear and believable choice on their hands.
Got interested and looked it up. Slovenia voted for independence December 1990, gained its independence in June 1991, kept using the Yugoslav dinar until it switched to its own currency, the tolar, in October 1991. It then converted to the Euro in 2007. Now, Yugoslavia was a disintegrating country by that time, at war with itself and suffering from hyperinflation - but it was also a fully fledged state with all the institutions that go with it.
Similarly, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia was agreed in July 1992 and took effect on 1 Jan 1993 - barely six months later. (Funnily enough, with allegedly only about 1/3rd of the population supporting it).

Slovenia, Slovakia and Czechia show that it is possible to be independent relatively quickly, andcto flourish after independence. Arguing that it would take longer to untangle UK ties than Yugoslav or Czechoslovakian ties would seem to me just another example of misplaced exceptionalism. Law, education and health are already separate. There are separate Scottish tax codes. Finance is a big one, distribution of assets and liabilities is a big one, unless the answer is 'nothing to Scotland'. Defence is another big one. Border arrangements. Etc. But it can be done.

And even if Scotland joins the EU there is simply no requirement to join the Euro - this is a myth. Yes, it is true that you have to commit to adopting the Euro at an unspecified point in the future, but 'unspecified point in the future' is simply EU speak for 'never'. See Denmark, Sweden who still use their own currency and have absolutely no desire, or pressure put on them, to convert to the Euro.

Whether joining the Euro makes sense or not is another debate with its own pros and cons, but 'you'd have to use the Euro' is a bullshit argument against joining the EU.
The other detail is that Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were all coming out of economically dead communism. They had basically one way to go, it couldn't get much worse. Seperating modern democratic and economically intertwined countries like Scotland and rUK has never been done before, certainly never with over 300 years of shared history. It would be the gamble of all gambles, a truly catastrophic one IMHO. We could certainly survive on our own but the capital flight and economic crunch an iScotland would face would make Brexit and the 2010 crisis seem like childsplay. A truly eye-watering level of austerity would be required with public services being absolutely hammered in a way we have never experienced before.

Even just the constitutional uncertainty has been a drag on Scotland's economy since 2011, the sooner this self-harming, grievance-seeking mindset is gone the better.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
Im glad you’re letting the rest of us have the benefit of your precognition. Thanks.
Just like the Brexiteers were told what will happen and they ignored it and pressed on anyway and have found that the EU surprisingly enough wont be easy to negotiate with and allow you to have your cake and eat it such as the pound collapsing 25% overnight on the vote, you hardly need to be Nostradamus.

The economics of it are a complete non-starter but like Brexit the majority of the population are easily swayed by heart and passion because they simply dont understand what it will entail and nationalism loves that.
And GDP, £ figures and stock market numbers don't have that much obvious play in day to day life. The £ absolutely collapsed after the Brexit vote but I can't say I really noticed it. People notice their surroundings and UK GDP has been going up and up and up for years but that isn't really shown in most Scottish towns and cities.
tc27
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

I mean the 'hard reset' argument is something I am sympathetic to and one of the pro Brexit arguments I had some sympathy for.

But as Brexit as shown it could easily become a massive constitutional mess that consumes the bandwidth of the state for years accompanied by declines in GDP and taxation that leave the government less room to actually intervene positively.

Also there is nothing to suggest that the Scottish political establishment is full of masterful policy makers who will suddenly flourish with more powers.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

clydecloggie wrote:
Who's in la la land now. The only way is down from where the UK currently is? Aye, sure. Massive inequality that's only growing further, closing the curtains to our nearest neighbours out of some misplaced superiority complex, the country is declining, creaking, old and tired everywhere you go - except for a few scattered shiny bits. But sure, we're at the summit of Everest and the only way is down. We're not. We're not even at base camp. Damn right I want the hard reset of indy because for the last decade or so, maybe longer, we've just been shuffling numbly towards the abyss.

And once again, for new EU members the deal is exactly the same as it is for Denmark and Sweden - you sign up for it, but you never actually have to make good on your promise. It's open-ended.
It would appear to be you still, I am not here claiming the UK is Nirvana but it is definitely in a better place than iScotland will be for decades, the rest of your natural life.

Inequality has only just started widening again in 2019 after a decade of contraction so another of your assertions is wrong.

You have an issue with Brexit which I agree with but then shoot yourself in both feet by then supporting independence conveniently ignoring all the things that are wrong with Brexit are magnified 100 fold with Indy, it’s just nonsense.

Denmark has an opt-out, the others are legally obliged to join, also no country the size of Scotland has stayed out, more honesty is needed in this debate, like Brexit

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlarge ... e_eurozone
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

The ONS doesn't think that's the case LN: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... t-says-ons

Post QE, low interest rate society is prime for inequality.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
Im glad you’re letting the rest of us have the benefit of your precognition. Thanks.
Just like the Brexiteers were told what will happen and they ignored it and pressed on anyway and have found that the EU surprisingly enough wont be easy to negotiate with and allow you to have your cake and eat it such as the pound collapsing 25% overnight on the vote, you hardly need to be Nostradamus.

The economics of it are a complete non-starter but like Brexit the majority of the population are easily swayed by heart and passion because they simply dont understand what it will entail and nationalism loves that.
And GDP, £ figures and stock market numbers don't have that much obvious play in day to day life. The £ absolutely collapsed after the Brexit vote but I can't say I really noticed it. People notice their surroundings and UK GDP has been going up and up and up for years but that isn't really shown in most Scottish towns and cities.
I certainly noticed the pound collapse.

The big cities in Scotland have had millions spent on them, people might not appreciate it but it can be seen in big increase in asset prices (houses) to the new roads Queensferry bridge, M74/73 motorway in Glasgow, AWPR to the likes of the v&a in Dundee and surrounding spend. People imho don’t realise that all this is actually good, we spend less on food and essentials as part of our take home than ever before.

If we could make property affordable for the young to get on the ladder we aren’t in a bad place, sure some are in difficult straits but on the whole things are actually pretty good.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

I like haggis wrote:The ONS doesn't think that's the case LN: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... t-says-ons

Post QE, low interest rate society is prime for inequality.
Hadn’t seen that, does say it’s static rather than growing though. Will read more on it later as I want to see others take on it than just the Guardian’s reporting of it as they love to big up income equality.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
Im glad you’re letting the rest of us have the benefit of your precognition. Thanks.
Just like the Brexiteers were told what will happen and they ignored it and pressed on anyway and have found that the EU surprisingly enough wont be easy to negotiate with and allow you to have your cake and eat it such as the pound collapsing 25% overnight on the vote, you hardly need to be Nostradamus.

The economics of it are a complete non-starter but like Brexit the majority of the population are easily swayed by heart and passion because they simply dont understand what it will entail and nationalism loves that.
And GDP, £ figures and stock market numbers don't have that much obvious play in day to day life. The £ absolutely collapsed after the Brexit vote but I can't say I really noticed it. People notice their surroundings and UK GDP has been going up and up and up for years but that isn't really shown in most Scottish towns and cities.
I certainly noticed the pound collapse.

The big cities in Scotland have had millions spent on them, people might not appreciate it but it can be seen in big increase in asset prices (houses) to the new roads Queensferry bridge, M74/73 motorway in Glasgow, AWPR to the likes of the v&a in Dundee and surrounding spend. People imho don’t realise that all this is actually good, we spend less on food and essentials as part of our take home than ever before.

If we could make property affordable for the young to get on the ladder we aren’t in a bad place, sure some are in difficult straits but on the whole things are actually pretty good.
Yeah I don't think enough is made of the big infrastructure spend. One problem I have is the V&A in Dundee - it's cool and good to have the regeneration of the docks but Dundee is still as run down as when I grew up there. The V&A is a bit lipstick on a pig if you don't sort out the drugs and general malaise which is harder.

And I agree things are pretty good, but that's not an argument that wins as you see with Brexit because everyone wants better. And it's hard to see where Scotland gets better as part of the Union - what more can we get? And people don't really accept as much how bad things might be.

I think with houseprices I was lucky enough to have my girlfriend's parents really help with a deposit. Housing absolutely shouldn't come down to that but if there's a rebalancing the value of the house goes down which means we'll owe them more when we move to Scotland. So landlords and developers will lose out and at the minute in the UK they're more powerful than renters.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

Biffer29 wrote:
tc27 wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:The latest from Massie, very good article, this time putting the boot into Boris amongst other things:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -c59fg9q25
Spoiler: show
Johnson’s failings erode case for the Union
Covid-19 would have been disastrous for an independent Scotland but UK government mis-steps have boosted the SNP
Alex Massie
Tuesday June 23 2020, 12.01am, The Times

To state an evident truth first, Scotland was sensible to vote against independence in 2014. Or, to put it another way, the prospectus for independence presented by the SNP just six years ago would have led Scotland to ruin. This is not just because Scotland spends more than it earns or because the price of North Sea oil has plummeted, though neither of these truths help, but because the challenges of dealing with Covid-19 would have sunk the Scottish ship of state.

You will recall that the SNP insisted that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling as its currency. This would not have been a “currency union”, for Scotland could hardly insist that the rest of the UK join such a project, but, rather, “sterlingisation”. Scotland would have “kept” the pound but the price of doing so would be doing so without a central bank of its own.

Last week the Bank of England announced it was injecting another £100 billion to support what’s left of the UK economy. Such are the times we live in that this seemed routine to the point of being, extraordinarily, modest. In March, before lockdown had begun but when it was already clear that the crisis was upon us, the bank pumped £200 billion into its quantitative easing programme. At a rough estimate, Scotland’s share of this support amounts to about £25 billion; money that would not have been available to the newly independent state.

These sums, of course, are in addition to the Treasury’s vast expenditure on various employment and job-retention schemes that are, for the moment, making lockdown possible, propping up living standards, and staving off an unemployment crisis. Independent Scotland would have had little choice but to introduce comparable schemes but its room to do so, and its ability to make its own choices, would have been sharply restricted.

So Scotland chose prudently in 2014. If the SNP’s timetable for these matters was to be believed, the new state would shortly be celebrating its fourth birthday. It would have done so in miserably astringent times. Its first decade was guaranteed to be difficult even if you believed the nationalists’ fantastical projections; reality would have been very much more painful than even pessimistic Unionists might have suspected. However, that was then and this is now and last weekend a new opinion poll suggested that 54 per cent of Scottish voters with a view on the national question support independence. This is not a live proposition. There is no imminent prospect of a fresh plebiscite on independence and no means by which the Scottish government could force one even if it was remotely prepared for such a tussle. Polling on the question is, for now, largely hypothetical.

And yet, even so, the trend is obvious and it bends in the direction of nationalism. The hard, cold, economic numbers may remain Unionist but Scotland’s culture is increasingly softly, warmly, nationalist. Nor is there any sign this will change any time soon. According to the Panelbase survey, 70 per cent of Scots under 34 favour independence. This is broadly in line with other recent polls. Most voters under 50 now support independence.

That trend, rather more than the headline figures on Yes or No is what should keep Unionists awake at night. Increasingly, young Scots feel little real connection or affiliation with the UK or any sense, vague or not, of Britishness. For many of these younger voters, independence comes as naturally as unionism did to their grandparents. You might wish it otherwise but you cannot wish reality away.

From which, once again, we might pause to note that the case for independence is not being won in Edinburgh so much as the argument for Union is being lost in London. As some of us have argued for some time, Boris Johnson is a calamity for unionism. It is not simply that he is incompetent — though he is and that scarcely helps — but that his government lacks the emotional bandwidth to understand the UK. If the SNP were asked to create the opponent of its dreams he would, I am afraid, bear a considerable resemblance to Boris Johnson.

So long as Nicola Sturgeon is seen to be performing better than Mr Johnson, voters will be shepherded towards giving independence a chance. An independent Scotland would make many mistakes and suffer its share of misfortune, but these would be our mistakes and our misfortunes. They would not, in whole or in part, be foisted upon the country by the likes of Mr Johnson. Brexit, naturally, is part of this too and trends evident before Covid-19 have been exacerbated and boosted by the manner in which the British state has dealt with the virus. All this talk of a “world-beating” response looks ridiculous now. Could Scotland not do a little bit better than that? Even if you voted No in 2014, you’d hope the answer to that is “yes”.

As it happens, the Scottish portion of the UK’s response to the coronavirus has been less impressive than many people think. Doing a little bit better than world-trailing England is not all that terrific even if it is also just about enough for many Scots. But our politics is played in relative terms, not absolute ones and Mr Johnson’s ministry feels remote and alien and increasingly irrelevant. No amount of blustering about “Global Britain” can disguise the fact Mr Johnson’s Britain is a lesser, not a greater enterprise.

That helps explain why some 40 per cent of Labour’s remaining voters in Scotland say they support independence. If the alternative is Etonian government, independence will seem an increasingly attractive proposition to the left. The election of a Labour government may persuade some of these voters to give the UK another chance but even this can no longer be assumed. A lot, therefore, hangs on Sir Keir Starmer’s success.

All that may be too late in any case. The damage is being done now. The No vote is not just older than its Yes counterpart, it is softer too. If there were a referendum this year or next, I would expect it to be won by those advocating independence. An appointment with certain unwelcome financial realities might concentrate some minds but culture is more important than economics and identity feeds and builds culture.

The United Kingdom is a “four-nation” entity but the virus has encouraged and reinforced local political affiliations at the expense of any sense of grander, collective, purpose. No wonder, then, that Ms Sturgeon’s administration has taken on a quasi-independent feel already.
I am on the other side of the independence debate, but Massie is the one Unionist pundit I have a lot of time for.

Clearly an independent Scotland would need a central bank and currency of its own - The Bank of Smackeroonies, as per Kevin Bridges. Time the SNP just played that straight and came out saying that's what it will be - no more Sterling. In the current climate, I don't think many people would switch back to no then, as disenchantment with all British institutions is at an all-time high. There would still be legitimate questions on how that would work in practice, but surely it's the only viable option.
I actually agree that a perpetrate floating currency and bank is the only realistic course of action in the long term. Not only does it actually give a government the tools it needs to make Independence a worthwhile objective but its also a pre requisite for eventually joining the EU which since 2016 seems to have become an urgent policy objective.

However it does come with a number of downsides from what I understand:

1. Anyone with a debt currently held in Sterling (everyone with a mortgage) is screwed due to a likely unfavourable exchange rate.
2. Anyone who can will move their money out of Scotland before they are forced to swap for the new currency.
3. You are introducing a currency barrier to trade with your most important market (rUK).

This is why I think the SNP will probably try and push Sterlingisation again - again this brings huge problems of its own the biggest being that the new treasury would not have the funds to defend a peg.

At some point if there is going to be another refernedum these points will be addressed. The lack of answers on currency that are not awful and the implications for public spending VS the dislike of Boris..
Part of this also relates to how the split is managed - the Bank of England, despite its name, is the central bank of the UK. That is an asset of the state. So what is Scotland's share of that asset and how is that worked out? Is there a gradualised approach that would allow the Scottish state to own a share of the Bank of England to start with, which might be time bound? This could allow for a temporary sterlingisation approach which would allow a longer period of time for currency transition? Obviously there would be massive practicalities to be overcome, but are they larger or more favourable than splitting the BoE's assets?

Right here was when I went sour on the independence vision, months into the campaign and currency comes up and it's clear that the SNP don't want to say the right answer: set up a central bank and create a new currency as that creates too much disruptive change in the eye of the electorate. They also don't want to commit to joining the Euro (although I am certain that's their plan) as most people, even your average punter, knows that the Euro is a perennial disaster and is fundamentally unworkable until a banking union and fiscal union takes place within the EU (and it never will).

Instead, they cobbled up this dangerous and unworkable fantasy that sterling would be used in the manner in which Panama uses the US $, I thought this was an embarrassing admission but it was when I heard many Yes people saying things like 'other countries use the US$ so it's fine' was when I realised that many indy fans didn't understand and/or care about the damage it would do to the economy, it was independence first and the rest could be figured out. Scotland is a large, open, mixed economy with an absolutely massive banking and finance sector, it is not appropriate to compare Scotland with any of these countries. Given the size of the banking sector, it is doubly imperative that Scotland has its own central bank as a lender of last resort. The sterling zone would lead to all Scotland's major financial corporations re-domiciling and with them would be the general drift of high skilled jobs in banking, insurance, asset management and affiliated services. I fear that if there is another referendum (and it's still a 'no') many companies may move anyway given the political scene and direction of travel.

Salmond not ruling out a currency union near the eve of the referendum was the last thing I paid attention to in the campaign as he knows better (given his background) and knows how damaging it would be for the country. That was curtains for me on the yes vote.

One other thing that's rarely mentioned is the huge effect these years of horrible pain would have on Scotland's emigration rate, Ireland lost 10% of its young people in GFC and I would expect Scotland to lose more than that given the comparative severity of economic turbulence that would follow independence. This would leave an indelible mark on Scottish society as well as worsening Scotland's demographic position. Further, it would be a disproportionate amount of highly skilled people as they're the most globally mobile.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
After working the doors themselves, Wee Weegie and a mate set up a security company last year. They were doing very well till this hit.

The demand for security staff has gone off the scale. Everyone seems to be expecting things to be a bit lively when things get going again.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

Prepare for an invasion...
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by BlackMac »

Edinburgh01 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
After working the doors themselves, Wee Weegie and a mate set up a security company last year. They were doing very well till this hit.

The demand for security staff has gone off the scale. Everyone seems to be expecting things to be a bit lively when things get going again.
Edinburgh I presume. Apart from one exception, organised crime isn't overly involved in the security business here, especially the doors. Tell him not to try and expand his business in the west.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Whatever the reasons, it does seem that the virus has been suppressed to a greater extent in Scotland. No deaths today, first time on a weekday since March 20th.

Here's hoping we can maintain progress in the face of idiots, weather, politics, tourists and nature.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Edinburgh01 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
After working the doors themselves, Wee Weegie and a mate set up a security company last year. They were doing very well till this hit.

The demand for security staff has gone off the scale. Everyone seems to be expecting things to be a bit lively when things get going again.
Yeah I can see it being an issue for staff. Limited numbers means folk won't be able to just rock up and arseholes will take issue with that.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dargotronV.1 »

Biffer29 wrote:Whatever the reasons, it does seem that the virus has been suppressed to a greater extent in Scotland. No deaths today, first time on a weekday since March 20th.

Here's hoping we can maintain progress in the face of idiots, weather, politics, tourists and nature.
Yeah that's a positive update :thumbup:
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

tc27 wrote:A 10% share of the BoE's assets is going to be a quantity of gold and foreign currency.
I have no idea what the numbers are now after Covid, but the last time I looked the BoE had assets and liabilities equal to around 30% of GDP. The largest portion of the assets are UK Govt debt.

During Covid, the BoE bought UK Govt debt when no one else would.

So it appears that Scotland is supposed to accept a pro rata share of the debt issued by the Treasury, but somehow it is outrageous that a Scottish central bank should receive a pro rata share of that debt bought by the BoE. So the rest of the UK as a whole keeps both the liability and the matching asset in different national institutions, whilst Scotland just gets the liability.

There is also the relatively unimportant fact that the BoE holds some £70bn of assets to support cash in circulation. A proportion of these assets are provided directly by Scottish and NI note issuers. If Scotland is no longer issuing sterling notes, those assets leave the BoE immediately.

Some assets will leave the BoE no matter what. Some assets should leave if Scotland and the rest of the UK are being treated the same. Clearly that may not happen, but I have more faith that our southern brethern will treat any separation with a decent amount of equity than some seem to have.
Last edited by Edinburgh01 on Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Edinburgh01 »

BlackMac wrote:
Edinburgh01 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
OptimisticJock wrote:Beer gardens open from 6th July. She shouldn't have opened them on the 4th when I'm off no? No we'll wait til I'm night shift and have to deal with the fall out again. I swear she's doing it on purpose.
Tbh I think it’s a more sensible approach to open on a Monday rather than a Friday or Saturday. Might make it not quite so crazy.
It won't.
After working the doors themselves, Wee Weegie and a mate set up a security company last year. They were doing very well till this hit.

The demand for security staff has gone off the scale. Everyone seems to be expecting things to be a bit lively when things get going again.
Edinburgh I presume. Apart from one exception, organised crime isn't overly involved in the security business here, especially the doors. Tell him not to try and expand his business in the west.
Edinburgh and Borders. We have a relative in the business so they have been advised.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

slick wrote:Prepare for an invasion...
Hopefully they keep it to the Glasgow thread, which looks to be fvcked now.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by HKCJ »

Rumours Nicola is looking at quarantining English visitors. That’ll be an absolute kick in the balls to the already reeling tourism industry just so she can flex her political muscles.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

HKCJ wrote:Rumours Nicola is looking at quarantining English visitors. That’ll be an absolute kick in the balls to the already reeling tourism industry just so she can flex her political muscles.
Shirley there is absolutely no way she can do that? A roadblock on the M6?
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by A5D5E5 »

slick wrote:
HKCJ wrote:Rumours Nicola is looking at quarantining English visitors. That’ll be an absolute kick in the balls to the already reeling tourism industry just so she can flex her political muscles.
Shirley there is absolutely no way she can do that? A roadblock on the M6?
Gangs of SNP supporters armed with bagpipes and armoured sporrans to check every hotel, holiday home and campsite for people eating food that hasn't been fried.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Yeah I can't see how that will be enforced. There's not enough polis to deal with the normal shite, poor fuckers were run more daft than us last night.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

It’s an absolute gift though, get the numbers right down, say they want restrictions, get laughed out if town then make a huge noise when the numbers inevitably go up after the 15th
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Birdy »

Sturgeon has aleady stated that she does not have the power to close the border between Scotland and England - See Andrew Marr interview back in April when Marr explicitly asked that question.

Reading both the Times & Telegraph - the Times buried way in the inside pages on both paper, and it wasn'r even mentioned in the Sunday Telegraphh , but they picked it up on their website - both quote 'unnamed' sources , and the response that The Times printed from the Scottish Government actual source - did not even mention the possibility of closing borders

It looks like a total non story - if this was a starter , it would have been splashed on the Front pages, - you might even thought they had an agenda.

And it is so unlike people to propagate false information - but what ever makes you happy I suppose
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

Birdy wrote:Sturgeon has aleady stated that she does not have the power to close the border between Scotland and England - See Andrew Marr interview back in April when Marr explicitly asked that question.

Reading both the Times & Telegraph - the Times buried way in the inside pages on both paper, and it wasn'r even mentioned in the Sunday Telegraphh , but they picked it up on their website - both quote 'unnamed' sources , and the response that The Times printed from the Scottish Government actual source - did not even mention the possibility of closing borders

It looks like a total non story - if this was a starter , it would have been splashed on the Front pages, - you might even thought they had an agenda.

And it is so unlike people to propagate false information - but what ever makes you happy I suppose
Yeah, if that was being considered the Mail and the telegraph would be howling about it.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by HKCJ »

Birdy wrote:Sturgeon has aleady stated that she does not have the power to close the border between Scotland and England - See Andrew Marr interview back in April when Marr explicitly asked that question.

Reading both the Times & Telegraph - the Times buried way in the inside pages on both paper, and it wasn'r even mentioned in the Sunday Telegraphh , but they picked it up on their website - both quote 'unnamed' sources , and the response that The Times printed from the Scottish Government actual source - did not even mention the possibility of closing borders

It looks like a total non story - if this was a starter , it would have been splashed on the Front pages, - you might even thought they had an agenda.

And it is so unlike people to propagate false information - but what ever makes you happy I suppose
Looks like people were interpreting comments by Prof Sridar who sits on the advisory board. Definitely jumping the gun and total non story. I do like to gossip though.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

HKCJ wrote:
Birdy wrote:Sturgeon has aleady stated that she does not have the power to close the border between Scotland and England - See Andrew Marr interview back in April when Marr explicitly asked that question.

Reading both the Times & Telegraph - the Times buried way in the inside pages on both paper, and it wasn'r even mentioned in the Sunday Telegraphh , but they picked it up on their website - both quote 'unnamed' sources , and the response that The Times printed from the Scottish Government actual source - did not even mention the possibility of closing borders

It looks like a total non story - if this was a starter , it would have been splashed on the Front pages, - you might even thought they had an agenda.

And it is so unlike people to propagate false information - but what ever makes you happy I suppose
Looks like people were interpreting comments by Prof Sridar who sits on the advisory board. Definitely jumping the gun and total non story. I do like to gossip though.
That's pretty much the point of this place.


Speaking to a nurse in the covid ward in ninewells last night, there was/is 3 patients in the whole of the hospital (not including the patient I took in) who were positive for covid and they'd been there for weeks.

In pish news there was a rave in dundee last night and loads of folk cutting about of their nut. In worse ness there's another tonight and I never got an invite.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

OptimisticJock wrote:
HKCJ wrote:
Birdy wrote:Sturgeon has aleady stated that she does not have the power to close the border between Scotland and England - See Andrew Marr interview back in April when Marr explicitly asked that question.

Reading both the Times & Telegraph - the Times buried way in the inside pages on both paper, and it wasn'r even mentioned in the Sunday Telegraphh , but they picked it up on their website - both quote 'unnamed' sources , and the response that The Times printed from the Scottish Government actual source - did not even mention the possibility of closing borders

It looks like a total non story - if this was a starter , it would have been splashed on the Front pages, - you might even thought they had an agenda.

And it is so unlike people to propagate false information - but what ever makes you happy I suppose
Looks like people were interpreting comments by Prof Sridar who sits on the advisory board. Definitely jumping the gun and total non story. I do like to gossip though.
That's pretty much the point of this place.


Speaking to a nurse in the covid ward in ninewells last night, there was/is 3 patients in the whole of the hospital (not including the patient I took in) who were positive for covid and they'd been there for weeks.

In pish news there was a rave in dundee last night and loads of folk cutting about of their nut. In worse ness there's another tonight and I never got an invite.
Yeah, 452 confirmed cases in hospital, 313 in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Nine health boards with fewer than 5 in hospital, Highland has 6.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

I think the numbers might be even lower than that? Or the numbers must all be concentrated in Glasgow and Lanarkshire?
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

dpedin wrote:I think the numbers might be even lower than that? Or the numbers must all be concentrated in Glasgow and Lanarkshire?
Glasgow and Edinburgh, plus Fife, Grampian and Lanarkshire.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/

The Wikipedia page is pretty good for tracking numbers as well
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

Biffer29 wrote:
dpedin wrote:I think the numbers might be even lower than that? Or the numbers must all be concentrated in Glasgow and Lanarkshire?
Glasgow and Edinburgh, plus Fife, Grampian and Lanarkshire.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/

The Wikipedia page is pretty good for tracking numbers as well
Cheers I was comparing different numbers so my mistake!
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