Melbourne. Fvcked again. And again. And again.

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Anonymous 1
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Anonymous 1 »

Clogs wrote:If that same demographic impact plays out in Australia, surely it would make more sense to let anyone under 50 continue on as per normal and anyone from 50 to 60 decide on whether to self isolate or not, then anyone over 60 should look to go into quarantine.
Would the government pay their salary ?
Would their employers be forced to keep their jobs open?
Would their employers be compensated for losing so many senior staff members?
I guess finding temp staff with the skills to step in would be a bit difficult ?
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Anonymous 1
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Anonymous 1 »

terryfinch wrote: To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.
We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV
Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article
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Sensible Stephen
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
terryfinch wrote:
Clogs wrote:We go into another lockdown from midnight tomorrow. 6 more weeks. Fvck!

In my opinion the wrong approach. This virus is now a fact of life. It doesn’t go away. Lockdown is too blunt an instrument. Track, trace and localised lockdowns (places of work, tower blocks, ....) seems the most practical way to go, keeping a lid on it that way. Wide scale lockdowns cause too much damage.
Can you please show us an example of a country or jurisdiction that has successfully slowed the spread COVID 19 using only localised lock-downs, rather than a more general approach?

South Korea appear to have been very successful with their approach similar to what terryfinch is suggesting?
Yes, Korea has managed it very well.

I have my doubts we could replicate it here though. The number of CovidSafe app downloads says it all.
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kiap
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by kiap »

What's with all this UK guff?

Poms totally infested the main Coronovirus thread and complained when non-Poms posted there.

Now the Boris-Brexit-Botulism is being transferred by brit super spreaders? :)
Mullet 2

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Mullet 2 »

terryfinch wrote:
Mullet 2 wrote:
terryfinch wrote:
Clogs wrote:We go into another lockdown from midnight tomorrow. 6 more weeks. Fvck!

In my opinion the wrong approach. This virus is now a fact of life. It doesn’t go away. Lockdown is too blunt an instrument. Track, trace and localised lockdowns (places of work, tower blocks, ....) seems the most practical way to go, keeping a lid on it that way. Wide scale lockdowns cause too much damage.

And what are your qualifications which inform your opinions?
Being, by some margin, the most intelligent poster that PR has ever had. :P
So not very high then
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:

South Korea appear to have been very successful with their approach similar to what terryfinch is suggesting?
Isn't Victoria doing exactly what Terryfinch is demanding? Localised lock-downs rather than the whole state going back to stage 3? Geographically speaking, only a tiny party section of Victoria is now under increased restrictions. Or were you two suggesting house by house, or street by street lockdowns? Whilst till letting young people wander about freely and letting 50-60 year olds choose their level or restriction, as per your proposal?
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

kiap wrote:What's with all this UK guff?

Poms totally infested the main Coronovirus thread and complained when non-Poms posted there.

Now the Boris-Brexit-Botulism is being transferred by brit super spreaders? :)
Yup, they're still recording more deaths per day than we have recorded altogether (106 as of today) and yet they are on here, preaching to us about how we should manage this outbreak.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Anonymous. wrote:
Clogs wrote:If that same demographic impact plays out in Australia, surely it would make more sense to let anyone under 50 continue on as per normal and anyone from 50 to 60 decide on whether to self isolate or not, then anyone over 60 should look to go into quarantine.
Would the government pay their salary ?
Would their employers be forced to keep their jobs open?
Would their employers be compensated for losing so many senior staff members?
I guess finding temp staff with the skills to step in would be a bit difficult ?

Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
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Muttonbirds
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:

South Korea appear to have been very successful with their approach similar to what terryfinch is suggesting?
Isn't Victoria doing exactly what Terryfinch is demanding? Localised lock-downs rather than the whole state going back to stage 3? Geographically speaking, only a tiny party section of Victoria is now under increased restrictions. Or were you two suggesting house by house, or street by street lockdowns? Whilst till letting young people wander about freely and letting 50-60 year olds choose their level or restriction, as per your proposal?

Not quite. Almost the entire area of Greater Melbourne is going into lockdown. Millions of people locked down. But yeah, geographically speaking...

This from Dan Andrews today:"The mildness of the virus is the real devil, Mr Andrews said.

“The fact that so many people can have it and not even feel unwell or if they do, the symptoms are so mild they’re not a prompt to go and get tested,” he said.

“This is binary. It is life and death … And I don’t want to hear any more of this stuff from younger people or healthy people regardless of their age, that ‘it won’t affect me’.”


But also I want all year 11 and 12 children returning to school next week. Like WTF?
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Sensible Stephen wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
terryfinch wrote:
Clogs wrote:We go into another lockdown from midnight tomorrow. 6 more weeks. Fvck!

In my opinion the wrong approach. This virus is now a fact of life. It doesn’t go away. Lockdown is too blunt an instrument. Track, trace and localised lockdowns (places of work, tower blocks, ....) seems the most practical way to go, keeping a lid on it that way. Wide scale lockdowns cause too much damage.
Can you please show us an example of a country or jurisdiction that has successfully slowed the spread COVID 19 using only localised lock-downs, rather than a more general approach?

South Korea appear to have been very successful with their approach similar to what terryfinch is suggesting?
Yes, Korea has managed it very well.

I have my doubts we could replicate it here though. The number of CovidSafe app downloads says it all.

That and the efficacy of the CovidSafe app too. I don't think it picked up 1 Victorian case...
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Muttonbirds wrote:Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?
Careful mate, or I'll channel my inner eldanielfire and start tearfully accusing you of trolling dead Australians!
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Enzedder »

Clogs wrote:
So you don't think my idea has merit. Even with the data? You believe the 100% lockdown is the only way to go?
I could run with it if the age group were happy to put social distancing, hand-washing protocols etc into place. But they're too bloody self-centred to worry about it because of the stats you mentioned.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?

Sorry you say sounds terrible? For whom?
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?

Sorry you say sounds terrible? For whom?
For;
- the people of all ages who will die
- their friends and family
- the Dr's and medical staff in ICU
- the people tasked to contact trace the entire population during your herd immunity experiment
- the elderly people who you seem to be suggesting should be quarantined permanently until we have a vaccine
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Anonymous. wrote:
terryfinch wrote: To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.
We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV
Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article
Imperial College predictions/modelling? :roll:

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?

Sorry you say sounds terrible? For whom?
For;
- the people of all ages who will die
- their friends and family
- the Dr's and medical staff in ICU
- the people tasked to contact trace the entire population during your herd immunity experiment
- the elderly people who you seem to be suggesting should be quarantined permanently until we have a vaccine

So how many people will die if we isolate the elderly and those at most at risk? We cannot prevent people from dying. But if we understand how this thing works and use the data we can manage it.

We have been dealing with this for months now. We should have significantly built up our capability to test hundreds of thousands of people in a short space of time by now. test, trace isolate. In other words gear up for the South Korea approach. Have we? Nope, most people must have thought lockdown has worked and we are in the clear because we have eased restrictions. Nek minute...

Australia is not out of the woods. New Zealand is not out of the woods. Nowhere is out of the woods. This virus is now permanently amongst us. We need better methods to manage this than "lockdown is the only way". Melbourne cannot go into a 3rd lockdown. Cannot.

I am asking, knowing what we know now from the data we now have, is there a better way of managing this than (purely emotive strawman arguments) and blunt force lockdown?
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?
Clogs demonises older people here. What the hell was his mother thinking when she brought him up?
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Muttonbirds wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?
Clogs demonises older people here. What the hell was his mother thinking when she brought him up?
I liken old people to seal pups. They all truly deserve to be clubbed to death with a blunt instrument. I don't know why we are wanting to protect them because they are all going to die anyway. And even thought they have paid their taxes and worked hard, they are now taking up space. And they drive slowly on the roads. Ok perhaps I was being a bit harsh about clubbing them to death.







That takes effort. Perhaps we can burn them all?
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by jambanja »

Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:Most people over 60 are retired. So no need to worry about wages. Those between 50 and 60 can work from home (as per what everyone else is doing right now). Not difficult and not too disruptive.
Clogs, the regime you are advocating, with restrictions only for the elderly and with everyone else free to live however they choose, sounds terrible. Like a herd immunity experiment. Has it been tried successfully anywhere?

Sorry you say sounds terrible? For whom?
For;
- the people of all ages who will die
- their friends and family
- the Dr's and medical staff in ICU
- the people tasked to contact trace the entire population during your herd immunity experiment
- the elderly people who you seem to be suggesting should be quarantined permanently until we have a vaccine

So how many people will die if we isolate the elderly and those at most at risk? We cannot prevent people from dying. But if we understand how this thing works and use the data we can manage it.

We have been dealing with this for months now. We should have significantly built up our capability to test hundreds of thousands of people in a short space of time by now. test, trace isolate. In other words gear up for the South Korea approach. Have we? Nope, most people must have thought lockdown has worked and we are in the clear because we have eased restrictions. Nek minute...

Australia is not out of the woods. New Zealand is not out of the woods. Nowhere is out of the woods. This virus is now permanently amongst us. We need better methods to manage this than "lockdown is the only way". Melbourne cannot go into a 3rd lockdown. Cannot.

I am asking, knowing what we know now from the data we now have, is there a better way of managing this than (purely emotive strawman arguments) and blunt force lockdown?
This, so much this, unless NZ and those Aus states that are Covid free think they can live in isolation without the rest of the world, which I doubt is possible, then all we have done is delayed the inevitable.
The only other option is to do as Mr Mike suggested and stay locked down and sell “safety visas” to the highest bidder, which could end up being incredibly lucrative

But but vaccines I hear you say, yep that’s best case scenario, we need to plan for worst cast and only hope for best case
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:So how many people will die if we isolate the elderly and those at most at risk? We cannot prevent people from dying. But if we understand how this thing works and use the data we can manage it.

We have been dealing with this for months now. We should have significantly built up our capability to test hundreds of thousands of people in a short space of time by now. test, trace isolate. In other words gear up for the South Korea approach. Have we? Nope, most people must have thought lockdown has worked and we are in the clear because we have eased restrictions. Nek minute...

Australia is not out of the woods. New Zealand is not out of the woods. Nowhere is out of the woods. This virus is now permanently amongst us. We need better methods to manage this than "lockdown is the only way". Melbourne cannot go into a 3rd lockdown. Cannot.

I am asking, knowing what we know now from the data we now have, is there a better way of managing this than (purely emotive strawman arguments) and blunt force lockdown?
I think here in Australia we are managing this plague sensibly. Thankfully, all the top medical officers and politicians favour the sensible lockdowns that I support and that have characterised our approach. And thankfully no-one apart from conservative radio shock jocks and the Sky after dark commentators support your untested herd-immunity experiment where the unwell and elderly are sacrificed for the greater economic good.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ellafan »

Farva wrote:
Ellafan wrote:
Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
You keep beating this drum - it has happened now, it's not punishment, the Lockdown happened under the best advice, which was consistent with Medical Advice.
Actually it was the best medical advice. The best economic advice would be different.
Yeah, I just dont agree with that.
We dont really know what the true extent of this pandemic might have been had we let it run its course. We still dont. The US had some lockdown and have recorded 130k deaths. That is recorded. Its quite possibly 200k or more given the level of under reporting. With a mortality rate of 0.5% to 1%, that means 20m to 40m people have had the virus. And its accellerating there. What happens when 150m people have had it and the deaths are no longer 200k, but closer to 2m? Sure they are older people. But dont forget that many of those that dont die end up with a life long disability.

If that happens in Australia (and it still might) then we would be looking at somewhere between 50k and 100k deaths. Plus a huge number of disabled people with significant lung damage or other issues that are being noted.

I am of the opinion that the economy will be hammered if we allow that to happen. I think it would be hammered more than by going into lockdown. The economy has taken a hit and we are in recession now. But its one we can come out in a reasonable shape. Lets not forget the economy was shakey leading in to this.
But the Force are back. ;)
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sewa
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by sewa »

Ali's Choice wrote:
For;
- the people of all ages who will die
- their friends and family
- the Dr's and medical staff in ICU
- the people tasked to contact trace the entire population during your herd immunity experiment
- the elderly people who you seem to be suggesting should be quarantined permanently until we have a vaccine
The high risk category people that I know are generally (there are exceptions) doing exactly that, staying in complete lockdown until a vaccine is available.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Anonymous 1 »

Clogs wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
terryfinch wrote: To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.
We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV
Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article
Imperial College predictions/modelling? :roll:

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.
There was a prediction based on what they thought would happen if we didn't lockdown and then afterwards based on information from different countries on what actually happened based on that. Your saying don't bother with them what do they know doesn't really fill me with confidence.

Just imagine all the people who live with older parents or have partners or children who need to be shielded so they can't go to work. What about the people in their 50's who face the choice in Clogs world of going to work and facing a high risk of catching covid or not going to work and losing their home. Then there is the unknown of what long term effects there will be from having had it and recovered. Clogs world sounds shit
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:So how many people will die if we isolate the elderly and those at most at risk? We cannot prevent people from dying. But if we understand how this thing works and use the data we can manage it.

We have been dealing with this for months now. We should have significantly built up our capability to test hundreds of thousands of people in a short space of time by now. test, trace isolate. In other words gear up for the South Korea approach. Have we? Nope, most people must have thought lockdown has worked and we are in the clear because we have eased restrictions. Nek minute...

Australia is not out of the woods. New Zealand is not out of the woods. Nowhere is out of the woods. This virus is now permanently amongst us. We need better methods to manage this than "lockdown is the only way". Melbourne cannot go into a 3rd lockdown. Cannot.

I am asking, knowing what we know now from the data we now have, is there a better way of managing this than (purely emotive strawman arguments) and blunt force lockdown?
I think here in Australia we are managing this plague sensibly. Thankfully, all the top medical officers and politicians favour the sensible lockdowns that I support and that have characterised our approach. And thankfully no-one apart from conservative radio shock jocks and the Sky after dark commentators support your untested herd-immunity experiment where the unwell and elderly are sacrificed for the greater economic good.
And this is why sensible discourse cannot take place. You think you are having an adult conversation but someone always has to try and score cheap political shots in an attempt to discredit the other equally valid viewpoint.

If we were managing this plague sensibly in Australia we would have multiplied our testing regime by 10 000 and very quickly identified everyone that has the virus or has been exposed to it and isolated those individuals. But we haven't done that because 'lockdowns' work. And are the only way to deal with this. Because if we aren't advocating for lockdown's then we are supporting shock jocks and supposedly willingly sacrificing our elderly.

In the time of our most significant crisis that is just the most deliberate manipulation, misinformation and tenuous links made to try and score some sort of political points. For nothing meaningful.

I was hoping for something better, but you revert back to type.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Anonymous. wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
terryfinch wrote: To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.
We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV
Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article
Imperial College predictions/modelling? :roll:

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.
There was a prediction based on what they thought would happen if we didn't lockdown and then afterwards based on information from different countries on what actually happened based on that. Your saying don't bother with them what do they know doesn't really fill me with confidence.

Just imagine all the people who live with older parents or have partners or children who need to be shielded so they can't go to work. What about the people in their 50's who face the choice in Clogs world of going to work and facing a high risk of catching covid or not going to work and losing their home. Then there is the unknown of what long term effects there will be from having had it and recovered. Clogs world sounds shit

Just to be clear. Are you advocating lockdown until this virus is eliminated?
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Muttonbirds
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

Clogs wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
terryfinch wrote: To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.
We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV
Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article
Imperial College predictions/modelling? :roll:

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.
There was a prediction based on what they thought would happen if we didn't lockdown and then afterwards based on information from different countries on what actually happened based on that. Your saying don't bother with them what do they know doesn't really fill me with confidence.

Just imagine all the people who live with older parents or have partners or children who need to be shielded so they can't go to work. What about the people in their 50's who face the choice in Clogs world of going to work and facing a high risk of catching covid or not going to work and losing their home. Then there is the unknown of what long term effects there will be from having had it and recovered. Clogs world sounds shit

Just to be clear. Are you advocating lockdown until this virus is eliminated?
Your way of doing things seems shit.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:And this is why sensible discourse cannot take place. You think you are having an adult conversation but someone always has to try and score cheap political shots in an attempt to discredit the other equally valid viewpoint.
Your viewpoint isn't valid. It hasn't worked anywhere, it's a death sentence for swathes of people and it's not supported by any medical experts.
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Ellafan
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ellafan »

Ali's Choice wrote:
terryfinch wrote:
Clogs wrote:We go into another lockdown from midnight tomorrow. 6 more weeks. Fvck!

In my opinion the wrong approach. This virus is now a fact of life. It doesn’t go away. Lockdown is too blunt an instrument. Track, trace and localised lockdowns (places of work, tower blocks, ....) seems the most practical way to go, keeping a lid on it that way. Wide scale lockdowns cause too much damage.
Can you please show us an example of a country or jurisdiction that has successfully slowed the spread COVID 19 using only localised lock-downs, rather than a more general approach?
I doubt there is one, because this is a simple (although not binary) proposition.

In Oz, the gov'ts (plural) acted on the medical advice and got good results. The measures taken have trashed the economy. You are probably no worse off if you are a public servant, work for the ABC, or you work for a large corporation with high capitalisation. However, if you are a small-medium business proprietor, or an employee of one, or you work as a subbie in your own business (as I do), you are bleeding at the moment. Nonetheless, that is the way governments went - they took the medical advice route, to minimize the infection/death toll.

Dan Andrews said on the news tonight "This is going to cause economic damage, but there is no choice"... without risking more infections and deaths. That is not absolutely correct. If you put a military dictator in charge of this, in the style of the Roman Republic in time of crisis, that dictator would likely come up with an approach which was willing to accept some low level of casualties now, to get a better outcome (economically) in the short-medium term.

The media would crucify any suggestion of such an approach. I do not think the media have any empathy with people invested in, and working in the small and medium enterprises that are about to be crushed by renewed lockdowns.
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Ellafan
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ellafan »

Muttonbirds wrote:Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?
"Muttonmong should just fudge off"
Yer Man
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Yer Man »

kiap wrote:Now the Boris-Brexit-Botulism is being transferred by brit super spreaders? :)
:lol: :lol: :lol: :thumbup:
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Ellafan wrote:The media would crucify any suggestion of such an approach. I do not think the media have any empathy with people invested in, and working in the small and medium enterprises that are about to be crushed by renewed lockdowns.
:? 80% of Australia's news media in this couuntry is owned by News Ltd and has been consistently opposed to any form of lockdown or restrictions. Have you seen how the Couriermail has savagely attacked Palaszczuk on a daily basis about the closed borders? Similarly, all the highest rating radio commentators are conservative shock jocks and are universally anti-lockdown. I was watching Sky News after Dan Andrews' announcement today and it was non-stop trolling of him and the lockdowns.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:And this is why sensible discourse cannot take place. You think you are having an adult conversation but someone always has to try and score cheap political shots in an attempt to discredit the other equally valid viewpoint.
Your viewpoint isn't valid. It hasn't worked anywhere, it's a death sentence for swathes of people and it's not supported by any medical experts.

My viewpoint isn't valid but yours is the only one that counts? Narcissist much? :lol:

Btw South Korea and Taiwan (a nation with remarkably similar population size to Australia - given you seem to be so keen on comparisons on other threads) disagree with you. In fact don't just disagree with you, but highlight just how sick your absolute view of lockdown is the only way to manage this virus in fact is.

Test test test trace and isolate is actually a rather effective method. As proven. And given Australia (who you claim have done such a superb job of managing this) have now had months to build up capability to test trace and isolate, but haven't quite managed to get there. And we are now in the midst of a second wave with lockdown as our only method (even though there is clear evidence to support that there are other equally, if not more effective methods) I say I don't think this has been managed as well as it could have been. First lockdown should have been to buy us time to build up the capacity to significantly ramp up testing and tracing. With us having to go into a second lockdown I would say we are now failing. 5 Million people in Melbourne are now in lockdown.

There are other ways of managing this thing but you appear incapable of grasping that logic. It is your way and if anyone disagrees you resort to insults in order to try and discredit. But yeh, win internet pointzzz...
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Muttonbirds
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

Ellafan wrote:
Muttonbirds wrote:Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?
"Muttonmong should just fudge off"
To where? I actually live in the country I was born in...
Yer Man
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Yer Man »

Anonymous. wrote:
terryfinch wrote: To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.
We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV
Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article
Excess deaths in England and Wales has topped out at about 60,000 so maybe somewhere in the 65,000 to 70,000 range for the whole country.
Despite a three month lockdown vs business as usual every other year.
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terryfinch
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by terryfinch »

Australia was fortunate that Covid started whilst it was summer there. The virus does seem to thrive in colder, damp conditions. This has given Australia time to get good test and trace systems in pace. Now you are in winter, cases will probably start to appear more frequently (more time spent indoors, more humid conditions, more people in cramped spaces) but you have the tools to keep it under control. A localised lockdown approach where there are spikes in infection plus these tools should see you through it fairly well, you would think, especially given the low levels of infection you have.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:Btw South Korea and Taiwan (a nation with remarkably similar population size to Australia - given you seem to be so keen on comparisons on other threads) disagree with you. In fact don't just disagree with you, but highlight just how sick your absolute view of lockdown is the only way to manage this virus in fact is.
You just need to calm down Clogs.

We have recorded just 106 deaths so far. That's tragic for those individuals and their families, but very low by global standards. 7 of our 8 states and territories are easing restrictions and re-opening their economies in a controlled, composed and organised way. We have done brilliantly, and our strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19 has played a huge role in this. And you're here demanding for a complete change in what we're doing. Why would we change things up now, when we have done better than just about anywhere in the world?
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Slim 293
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Slim 293 »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Ellafan wrote:The media would crucify any suggestion of such an approach. I do not think the media have any empathy with people invested in, and working in the small and medium enterprises that are about to be crushed by renewed lockdowns.
:? 80% of Australia's news media in this couuntry is owned by News Ltd and has been consistently opposed to any form of lockdown or restrictions. Have you seen how the Couriermail has savagely attacked Palaszczuk on a daily basis about the closed borders? Similarly, all the highest rating radio commentators are conservative shock jocks and are universally anti-lockdown. I was watching Sky News after Dan Andrews' announcement today and it was non-stop trolling of him and the lockdowns.

The timeline of the Herald Sun coverage has been priceless...

They started off with fuk u Dan Andrews we can't play golf... to fuk u Dan Andrews everything is fine and the restrictions were an overreaction... to fuk u Chinese Dictator Dan we suddenly compare about migrants and the poor... and now fuk u Dan Andrews COVID is all your fault because... of tough restrictions?
grievous
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by grievous »

terryfinch wrote:Australia was fortunate that Covid started whilst it was summer there. The virus does seem to thrive in colder, damp conditions. This has given Australia time to get good test and trace systems in pace. Now you are in winter, cases will probably start to appear more frequently (more time spent indoors, more humid conditions, more people in cramped spaces) but you have the tools to keep it under control. A localised lockdown approach where there are spikes in infection plus these tools should see you through it fairly well, you would think, especially given the low levels of infection you have.
No wrong. South of the country where it is cooler Covid has only increased in Melbourne. Tasmania has none because its locked its borders.
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