Melbourne. Fvcked again. And again. And again.

[Clogs]

Btw South Korea and Taiwan (a nation with remarkably similar population size to Australia - given you seem to be so keen on comparisons on other threads) disagree with you. In fact don't just disagree with you, but highlight just how sick your absolute view of lockdown is the only way to manage this virus in fact is.

You just need to calm down Clogs.

We have recorded just 106 deaths so far. That's tragic for those individuals and their families, but very low by global standards. 7 of our 8 states and territories are easing restrictions and re-opening their economies in a controlled, composed and organised way. We have done brilliantly, and our strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19 has played a huge role in this. And you're here demanding for a complete change in what we're doing. Why would we change things up now, when we have done better than just about anywhere in the world?

106 so far. And now after that brilliant manangement almost a quarter of Australia's population has to go back into lockdown again.

But we have nailed it. We have managed it so well. There is no other way to manage it. We have done it the best way. So great. The greatest management of it. So great. [/ac mode]


You can hear yourself can't you?

[Ellafan]

The media would crucify any suggestion of such an approach. I do not think the media have any empathy with people invested in, and working in the small and medium enterprises that are about to be crushed by renewed lockdowns.

80% of Australia's news media in this couuntry is owned by News Ltd and has been consistently opposed to any form of lockdown or restrictions. Have you seen how the Couriermail has savagely attacked Palaszczuk on a daily basis about the closed borders? Similarly, all the highest rating radio commentators are conservative shock jocks and are universally anti-lockdown. I was watching Sky News after Dan Andrews' announcement today and it was non-stop trolling of him and the lockdowns.

Sorry mate, but as a rosé sipping intellectual, I only watch the ABC.

I once knew this lady who worked as a "producer" at Channel 9. She told me that their research indicated the maximum attention span of the average punter was 42 seconds.

[Clogs]

The media would crucify any suggestion of such an approach. I do not think the media have any empathy with people invested in, and working in the small and medium enterprises that are about to be crushed by renewed lockdowns.

80% of Australia's news media in this couuntry is owned by News Ltd and has been consistently opposed to any form of lockdown or restrictions. Have you seen how the Couriermail has savagely attacked Palaszczuk on a daily basis about the closed borders? Similarly, all the highest rating radio commentators are conservative shock jocks and are universally anti-lockdown. I was watching Sky News after Dan Andrews' announcement today and it was non-stop trolling of him and the lockdowns.

The timeline of the Herald Sun coverage has been priceless...

They started off with fuk u Dan Andrews we can't play golf... to fuk u Dan Andrews everything is fine and the restrictions were an overreaction... to fuk u Chinese Dictator Dan we suddenly compare about migrants and the poor... and now fuk u Dan Andrews COVID is all your fault because... of tough restrictions?

Meejuh have been a pack of cvnts. I recall all media ramping things up to 11 as the global infection rate hit 1 million. Now. Meh. Football is taKing up more column space. Fickle fvcking industry.

[Anonymous 1]

To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.

We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV

Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article

Imperial College predictions/modelling?

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.

There was a prediction based on what they thought would happen if we didn't lockdown and then afterwards based on information from different countries on what actually happened based on that. Your saying don't bother with them what do they know doesn't really fill me with confidence.

Just imagine all the people who live with older parents or have partners or children who need to be shielded so they can't go to work. What about the people in their 50's who face the choice in Clogs world of going to work and facing a high risk of catching covid or not going to work and losing their home. Then there is the unknown of what long term effects there will be from having had it and recovered. Clogs world sounds shit

Just to be clear. Are you advocating lockdown until this virus is eliminated?

R value less than 1 seems good. No doubt the general population will have a much higher uptake of decent hygiene by then. Plus hopefully better knowledge of how to treat people and better drugs to treat them with.

One thing I've noticed is a lot of fatties have taken up exercise and got into posting their exercise stats on Facebook. Nothing like the prospect of imminent death to motivate people

[kiwigreg369]

Anyone point to an article articulating why this happened in Melbourne (something more scientific than the guards lighter shared around and the Eid celebration).

[Slim 293]

Anyone point to an article articulating why this happened in Melbourne (something more scientific than the guards lighter shared around and the Eid celebration).

It's essentially a range of factors, and some bad luck...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53259356

[kiap]

I can't link an article, but contact tracing did seem to link outbreaks back to security personnel and overseas returnees at some of these quarantine hotels.

A bit of a fvck up in the system there.

[Sensible Stephen]

Yes, Korea has managed it very well.

I have my doubts we could replicate it here though. The number of CovidSafe app downloads says it all.

That and the efficacy of the CovidSafe app too. I don't think it picked up 1 Victorian case...

I think that has a lot to do with the number of downloads right? It needs a decent percentage of people to have it for it to be of any use. And there was some bluetooth issue with Apple phones?

I agree the Korean model is the best, no lockdowns, low infection rate, low death rate. But I don't think we have the culture here in Australia to do it. We are individuals, whereas thanks to the Confucianism culture still running deep, Koreans buy much more into the group.

For it to work here, I think you'd have to go draconian, ie not allowed out of your house unless you are wearing a Covid tracking bracelet or something.

[eldanielfire]

Gotta love a Labour government

Agreed, the QLD Labor govt has done the best job fighting COVID in Australia

[LandOTurk]

I think thats the worry. They won't be. People are exhausted. A second lockdown will be much harder to do than the first.

I think we need to keep things in perspective, we've still only had 106 deaths in total nationally. That's how many deaths the England is recording per day, and they have opened up their economy and are encouraging people to rush to the pubs and to the beach.

Ficsed

[LandOTurk]

Yes, Korea has managed it very well.

I have my doubts we could replicate it here though. The number of CovidSafe app downloads says it all.

That and the efficacy of the CovidSafe app too. I don't think it picked up 1 Victorian case...

I think that has a lot to do with the number of downloads right? It needs a decent percentage of people to have it for it to be of any use. And there was some bluetooth issue with Apple phones?

I agree the Korean model is the best, no lockdowns, low infection rate, low death rate. But I don't think we have the culture here in Australia to do it. We are individuals, whereas thanks to the Confucianism culture still running deep, Koreans buy much more into the group.

For it to work here, I think you'd have to go draconian, ie not allowed out of your house unless you are wearing a Covid tracking bracelet or something.

Lived there for 6 months and 100% agree. Immensely patriotic.

[eldanielfire]

Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?

To hope no one remembers his position and rip him on it?

[eldanielfire]

To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.

We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV

Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article

Imperial College predictions/modelling?

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.

Nope!

[LandOTurk]

To put the 40,000 UK deaths into context, in Winter of 2018/9 we had 45,000 excess deaths from a nasty bout of seasonal flu. Not saying these CV deaths aren’t tragic and that the actions taken haven’t been essential to stop it being much worse but let’s not think we can stop old, frail people from dying from something. CV is now with us, like AIDS, like flu, like cancer and we need to get used to it. After 35 years we still don’t have an Aids vaccine. I hope we get a CV vaccine but don’t rely on it.

We have treatments for Covid and we will get more. Just as has happened with HIV

Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers

Lockdown measures have had a ‘large effect’ in controlling the Covid-19 outbreak, leading to 470,000 deaths being avoided in the UK, according to new research.

It comes as the UK death toll from the virus has exceeded 40,000 – more than double the 20,000 deaths that the UK’s chief scientific advisor said in mid-March would be a ‘good outcome’.

Researchers from Imperial College London looking at the impact of lockdown and other interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, said ‘continued intervention should be considered’ to manage the coronavirus outbreak.

The team of academics assessed 11 European countries – including the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and France - up until 4 May when restrictions started to be lifted.

They estimated around 5.1% of people in the UK had been infected by that point. This compares with 0.85% in Germany, representing one of the lowest rates, and 8% in Belgium, the highest estimate.
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article

Imperial College predictions/modelling?

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.

Nope!

I'd be interested in seeing that info Clogs. Can you provide a source? Thanks

[LandOTurk]

Just chatting with my colleague in Melbourne last night/his morning. His mother just passed this week and now he gets the joys of covid lockdown again. He's not even enjoying the job. Poor bastard.

[kiap]

That and the efficacy of the CovidSafe app too. I don't think it picked up 1 Victorian case...

Not quite true. But, yeah, the app is not the best.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-20/ ... us/1226528

I think that has a lot to do with the number of downloads right? It needs a decent percentage of people to have it for it to be of any use. And there was some bluetooth issue with Apple phones?

The latter definitely an issue. And downloads at 6 million a bit low. Target was probably 10 million.

I agree the Korean model is the best, no lockdowns, low infection rate, low death rate. But I don't think we have the culture here in Australia to do it. We are individuals, whereas thanks to the Confucianism culture still running deep, Koreans buy much more into the group.

I suspect confucian culture, while possibly an influence, is not the main factor.

Would not be surprised if there has been more widespread recent historical exposure to similar coronaviruses.

For it to work here, I think you'd have to go draconian, ie not allowed out of your house unless you are wearing a Covid tracking bracelet or something.

Yep, hard to see that happening here (not sure this would fly universally in Korea either).

[eldanielfire]

Remember when Apple forced that awful U2 album upon us by automatic download? Genuinely can't governments get software companies to do the same for any COVID-19 track and trace app?

[kiap]

An upgrade to the Apple/Google version could still happen.

Worth a shot anyway...

[Anonymous 1]

Imperial College predictions/modelling?

Didn't they predict 100 million people in the UK were going to be infected in 8 weeks and that 200 million were going to die in 7 weeks. Anyone trusting them or quoting them as a source has invalidated their argument. Period.

Nope!

I'd be interested in seeing that info Clogs. Can you provide a source? Thanks

Give him a few minutes he is just typing it up now

[Pat the Ex Mat]

Use the data to guide you. What % of those that have been infected have now got/had complications. Get that data and let's start dissecting and discussing.

That be anti-vaxxer rhetoric 101

[jdogscoop]

Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?

To hope no one remembers his position and rip him on it?

Perhaps, if Muttonmong was anywhere near accurate.

I never said NZ "had it wrong". In fact, I think they've been far and away the best pandemic managers as their record would attest.

I simply stated that based on my experience, and the numbers at the time, Victoria and indeed Australia was doing much better than punters in NZ were giving it credit for. Which for most of Australia, still rings true.

Unfortunately I wasn't to know that my experience of the city and city-fringe wasn't being replicated in the outer north and west, or indeed the quarantine hotel corridors.

Which brings us to today and the fact millions of Melburnians like me have to suffer due to the actions of a minority of morons.

[eldanielfire]

Fair enough, it's typical Muttongarbage

[jambanja]

So what everyone is saying is that until they find a vaccine, our countries are shut, how long is this sustainable for?

[Ali's Choice]

Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?

To hope no one remembers his position and rip him on it?

Perhaps, if Muttonmong was anywhere near accurate.

I never said NZ "had it wrong". In fact, I think they've been far and away the best pandemic managers as their record would attest.

I simply stated that based on my experience, and the numbers at the time, Victoria and indeed Australia was doing much better than punters in NZ were giving it credit for. Which for most of Australia, still rings true.

Unfortunately I wasn't to know that my experience of the city and city-fringe wasn't being replicated in the outer north and west, or indeed the quarantine hotel corridors.

Which brings us to today and the fact millions of Melburnians like me have to suffer due to the actions of a minority of morons.

Feeling for you and the other Melbourne based boredies right now. I even feel sorry for Clogs, who I disagree with on this thread. I can't imagine what you guys are feeling right now. As a country we all went through the initial lockdowns together, and they were bad enough, but now you guys are forced to walk down that road again on your own. But only this time it will be worse as all the other states will be enjoying relatively normal lifestyles, holidaying, playing sports etc.

One the positive side, I don't think panic buying will be as much of an issue. Supply lines are national, and even if people in Melbourne start to get a bit edgy, the fact that the rest of Australia will be in 'business as usual' mode should mean that any short-term deficits will be quickly recified.

Another positive is that you will have plenty of sports to watch. SR Aoetearoa, SR AU, NRL and AFL not to mention A League and Netball. One of the things that sucked most about the initial lockdowns was the lack of sports to watch on TV.

Moving forward, I think it is inevitable that we have COVID-19 spikes and 2nd waves in Sydney. With the border between NSW and QLD opening on July 10th, this will mean that a 2nd wave will also inevitably happen in SE QLD. I think this is certain, and then Melbourne potentially won't be alone, as we'll all be in this together again.

[Ali's Choice]

So what everyone is saying is that until they find a vaccine, our countries are shut, how long is this sustainable for?

Pretty much. There is an out of control plague happening in most countries right now, and the only way to protect our society is to keep people out. No reason why we can't open up to Pacific Island nations who have never recorded any Covid-19. Although if I was Samoa, I would be cautious about allowing unrestricted travel with anywhere until there is a vaccine as they have no ability to treat COVID-19 and high rates of obesity, diabetes etc which as we know don't mix well with this virus.

[jambanja]

So what everyone is saying is that until they find a vaccine, our countries are shut, how long is this sustainable for?

Pretty much. There is an out of control plague happening in most countries right now, and the only way to protect our society is to keep people out. No reason why we can't open up to Pacific Island nations who have never recorded any Covid-19. Although if I was Samoa, I would be cautious about allowing unrestricted travel with anywhere until there is a vaccine as they have no ability to treat COVID-19 and high rates of obesity, diabetes etc which as we know don't mix well with this virus.

These trans tasman/pacific bubbles would be highly risky, considering some of the mistakes that have been made in maintaining control in our own backyards.
Let's hope they produce a vaccine quickly then

[Sensible Stephen]

So what everyone is saying is that until they find a vaccine, our countries are shut, how long is this sustainable for?

I don't think so.

They are still talking about the trans-tasman bubble, just delayed because of Victoria.

And then after that bubbles with Singapore, Korea and Japan.

We don't need to get rid of the virus totally, we just need to keep its numbers down so we can easily trace it. Melbourne has lost control over it at the moment, but hopefully this lockdown sets us back on the bubble path.

[jambanja]

So what everyone is saying is that until they find a vaccine, our countries are shut, how long is this sustainable for?

I don't think so.

They are still talking about the trans-tasman bubble, just delayed because of Victoria.

And then after that bubbles with Singapore, Korea and Japan.

We don't need to get rid of the virus totally, we just need to keep its numbers down so we can easily trace it. Melbourne has lost control over it at the moment, but hopefully this lockdown sets us back on the bubble path.

My faith in people is at an all time low right now and when you see what's happening in Victoria and NZ and how easily it can get bad, these bubbles look more and more risky, here in NZ some fuckwitt who had just been diagnosed with Covid escaped isolation and went down the road to a supermarket for an hour, these bubbles are going to be very hard to control

[jdogscoop]

Anyone heard from Jdog? He was very insistent that VIC had it right and NZ had it wrong a few months ago. What are his thoughts now?

To hope no one remembers his position and rip him on it?

Perhaps, if Muttonmong was anywhere near accurate.

I never said NZ "had it wrong". In fact, I think they've been far and away the best pandemic managers as their record would attest.

I simply stated that based on my experience, and the numbers at the time, Victoria and indeed Australia was doing much better than punters in NZ were giving it credit for. Which for most of Australia, still rings true.

Unfortunately I wasn't to know that my experience of the city and city-fringe wasn't being replicated in the outer north and west, or indeed the quarantine hotel corridors.

Which brings us to today and the fact millions of Melburnians like me have to suffer due to the actions of a minority of morons.

Feeling for you and the other Melbourne based boredies right now. I even feel sorry for Clogs, who I disagree with on this thread. I can't imagine what you guys are feeling right now. As a country we all went through the initial lockdowns together, and they were bad enough, but now you guys are forced to walk down that road again on your own. But only this time it will be worse as all the other states will be enjoying relatively normal lifestyles, holidaying, playing sports etc.

One the positive side, I don't think panic buying will be as much of an issue. Supply lines are national, and even if people in Melbourne start to get a bit edgy, the fact that the rest of Australia will be in 'business as usual' mode should mean that any short-term deficits will be quickly recified.

Another positive is that you will have plenty of sports to watch. SR Aoetearoa, SR AU, NRL and AFL not to mention A League and Netball. One of the things that sucked most about the initial lockdowns was the lack of sports to watch on TV.

Moving forward, I think it is inevitable that we have COVID-19 spikes and 2nd waves in Sydney. With the border between NSW and QLD opening on July 10th, this will mean that a 2nd wave will also inevitably happen in SE QLD. I think this is certain, and then Melbourne potentially won't be alone, as we'll all be in this together again.

Cheers, AC. I won't pretend I'm thrilled at returning to stage 3 restrictions for six weeks but I'm also aware others have it tougher than me. I'm not sure how working parents can home school their kids while trying to eke out a living, and we should also spare a thought for those who live alone. I'm pretty fortunate in having an office job that allows me to draw my full salary and stash a fair bit of it away.

It's also not lost on me that footy's back and as far as I'm aware the liquor store under my building remains an essential service, so I will continue to stock up on cold ones while I enjoy Super Rugby AU and Aotearoa. I'll also be watching AFL and a bevy of recorded TV programs.

Melbourne is doing a pretty good impression of South Island winter weather at the moment, so timing wise it's not the worst time to have only a few reasons to leave the house.

[Ali's Choice]

Cheers, AC. I won't pretend I'm thrilled at returning to stage 3 restrictions for six weeks but I'm also aware others have it tougher than me. I'm not sure how working parents can home school their kids while trying to eke out a living, and we should also spare a thought for those who live alone. I'm pretty fortunate in having an office job that allows me to draw my full salary and stash a fair bit of it away.

It's also not lost on me that footy's back and as far as I'm aware the liquor store under my building remains an essential service, so I will continue to stock up on cold ones while I enjoy Super Rugby AU and Aotearoa. I'll also be watching AFL and a bevy of recorded TV programs.

Melbourne is doing a pretty good impression of South Island winter weather at the moment, so timing wise it's not the worst time to have only a few reasons to leave the house.

save some money, spend quality time with your Mrs and catch up on tasting some of that expensive IPA beer that you seem to enjoy. Love the positive attitude mate, it will take you far in life.

[terryfinch]

Remember when Apple forced that awful U2 album upon us by automatic download? Genuinely can't governments get software companies to do the same for any COVID-19 track and trace app?

I remember that U2 stunt being described as like ‘someone leaving a turd in your sock drawer’.

[Ellafan]

On another angle... watching Dan the Man.

Would it be too much to ask for the premier of one of our states to WEAR A FUCKING TIE and suit coat?

[MungoMan]

On another angle... watching Dan the Man.

Would it be too much to ask for the premier of one of our states to WEAR A FUCKING TIE and suit coat?

Problem is, he doesn't manage to look casually elegant. He looks like a fella who reefed off his tie at the lights after his car's aircon failed.

[Ali's Choice]

On another angle... watching Dan the Man.

Would it be too much to ask for the premier of one of our states to WEAR A FUCKING TIE and suit coat?

I think he looks tidy and professional. He's got more to worry about right now than whether or not you want to jack off to him during press conferences.

[Ellafan]

On another angle... watching Dan the Man.

Would it be too much to ask for the premier of one of our states to WEAR A FUCKING TIE and suit coat?

I think he looks tidy and professional. He's got more to worry about right now than whether or not you want to jack off to him during press conferences.

He looks like a hobo in a cast off business shirt and pre-loved overcoat.

[Ellafan]

On another angle... watching Dan the Man.

Would it be too much to ask for the premier of one of our states to WEAR A FUCKING TIE and suit coat?

Problem is, he doesn't manage to look casually elegant. He looks like a fella who reefed off his tie at the lights after his car's aircon failed.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

Ties are gorn in business. Politicians need to catch up

[Ellafan]

Ties are gorn in business. Politicians need to catch up

Ties are still required in the other arms of government - the judiciary/courts, and the executive (at least the higher level of the civil service).

No need to lower our standards.

[Ali's Choice]

Ties are gorn in business. Politicians need to catch up

Ties are still required in the other arms of government - the judiciary/courts, and the executive (at least the higher level of the civil service).

No need to lower our standards.

No-one would wear a tie to a press conference during a bush-fire or a flood, and this is much more serious and potentially dangerous.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

Ties are gorn in business. Politicians need to catch up

Ties are still required in the other arms of government - the judiciary/courts, and the executive (at least the higher level of the civil service).

No need to lower our standards.

CEO's don't where them nowadays.

Not surprisingly, an industry of sex pests maintains "standards"