Melbourne. About to be fvcked again. Fvck you Sydney!

All things Rugby
User avatar
Clogs
Posts: 4591
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Farva wrote:As I understand it you are advocating to allow those that are low risk to return to work and then protect the vulnerable.

I think our performance so far says we can’t do that.

I am advocating that with the appropriate preventative steps, like social distancing, like masks, like work from home, like more sophisticated track and trace and a range of other steps we can actually get this virus to a manageable transmission rate, and still protect those most at risk. It is possible. It is just that people aren't prepared to engage in meaningful discussion because of the shriek brigade.

To expand. South Korea have had some success in controlling the virus without lockdown. Taiwan too.
So you're actually advocating for the common sense, preventative measures that Australia, NZ and most Western countries are implementing? Except when there are breakouts of infection you are arguing that there should be no localised or general restrictions or lockdowns, and it should be survival of the fittest? Why would you block the use of temporary lockdowns given they have proven to be the most effective way to control outbreaks?

Hmm, not sure where the trap is. Most western countries including Australia have failed. We need to do something better than what we are doing. It hasnt worked. We should have gone hard and early and pursued elimination like New Zealand or after lockdown 1, realise we were achieving the flattening of the curve but this thing was going to return, and in the time we had bought ourselves come up with far better testing, tracking tracing isolating and technology solutions. We haven't so we are only left with stage 4 lockdown and a prayer that it will work. If we don't eliminate it, and we don't improve in the areas I have suggested then it won't work and by December we will be in stage 4 again. To be in stage 4 now is a failure. We have no choice but to get on with it, but we are not here because were have successfully controlled it.
User avatar
Clogs
Posts: 4591
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

6.Jones wrote:
Clogs wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Farva wrote:They are facing the worst downturn since 1980.

Granted however that they have outperformed other Nordic nations economically. But it cost them 6k dead.

And it’s a very sharp downturn still.
I think all the Nordic nations are about the same now economically.

The scary thing is that Norway is now averaging 45 new cases a day (7 day rolling average) up from 7 a month ago and Denmark is now averaging 93 cases a day up from 17 a month ago. Fvck Finland (joke) but they have had a 300% increase in the last month too from 6 to about 18 a day. From all appearances they are all about to go into a second wave and potentially another lock down...

Sweden FYI was 537 cases per day a month ago and it is now 241. After being demonised early, it may be possible that they can still come out of this with some shred of credibility intact?
Yes they could be right. This has a long way to play, absent a vaccine.
They could have also got it horribly wrong and it will ramp up again there too. Long way to go. For their sake I hopethey got it right.
User avatar
Ali's Choice
Posts: 29828
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Queensland

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Farva wrote:Why are we screaming and keyboard smashing?

Is that what you are doing? I thought it was pretty civil?
You have been very civil. Clogs is desperate to paint himself to be the adult in the room, and anyone who disagrees with his herd immunity stance to be a raging, screaming leftie. He's used that trolling schtick all day.
User avatar
6.Jones
Posts: 2972
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:59 pm

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by 6.Jones »

Clogs wrote:
6.Jones wrote:Yes they could be right. This has a long way to play, absent a vaccine.
They could have also got it horribly wrong and it will ramp up again there too. Long way to go. For their sake I hopethey got it right.
Let's be coldly factual here. Absent a vaccine [or better ways to treat it], this virus is likely to become endemic in societies until eventually, almost everyone gets it. So the total number of people to die will be about the same, provided the hospital system stands up. The whole point of all our lockdowns and other contortions has been to not overwhelm the hospital system and drive deaths up from other causes.

The idea that lockdowns save lives is an emotional response. They only help control when people will die. The virus isn't going away. Where Sweden loses is when a vaccine is found early, and some Swedes die who could've been vaccinated.
User avatar
Norman Harvey
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:55 pm

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Norman Harvey »

Lockdowns gave us an opportunity to size this thing up and develope best practice, therapeutic treatments and vaccines. Each of these things would present opportunities to prevent people dying from this virus. I'm sure there are also very many people who have taken the opportunity to adjust their lifestyle to give themselves the best opportunity to survive should they become infected.

I believe there were at least two vaccines scientists in the USA and UK had repurposed and were very confident about before either country went into lockdown. It's amazing what we can do when we throw the world's financial and academic resources at something. Like WW2 all over again.
User avatar
6.Jones
Posts: 2972
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:59 pm

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by 6.Jones »

The hope for a vaccine does look high. Perhaps it's also a pointer to how we approach medicines in the future. We've been cautious about their development, racking up generational costs in the process. Like NASA and space. Maybe now its just time to go at it harder.
Yer Man
Posts: 20767
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Yer Man »

Clogs wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Farva wrote:They are facing the worst downturn since 1980.

Granted however that they have outperformed other Nordic nations economically. But it cost them 6k dead.

And it’s a very sharp downturn still.
I think all the Nordic nations are about the same now economically.

The scary thing is that Norway is now averaging 45 new cases a day (7 day rolling average) up from 7 a month ago and Denmark is now averaging 93 cases a day up from 17 a month ago. Fvck Finland (joke) but they have had a 300% increase in the last month too from 6 to about 18 a day. From all appearances they are all about to go into a second wave and potentially another lock down...

Sweden FYI was 537 cases per day a month ago and it is now 241. After being demonised early, it may be possible that they can still come out of this with some shred of credibility intact?
Or maybe Sweden is just running behind the others since it's first wave went on much longer than it's neighbours.
I'd still be very sceptical about drawing any conclusions from isolated data points.
User avatar
UncleFB
Posts: 13231
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by UncleFB »

Clogs wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Farva wrote:They are facing the worst downturn since 1980.

Granted however that they have outperformed other Nordic nations economically. But it cost them 6k dead.

And it’s a very sharp downturn still.
I think all the Nordic nations are about the same now economically.

The scary thing is that Norway is now averaging 45 new cases a day (7 day rolling average) up from 7 a month ago and Denmark is now averaging 93 cases a day up from 17 a month ago. Fvck Finland (joke) but they have had a 300% increase in the last month too from 6 to about 18 a day. From all appearances they are all about to go into a second wave and potentially another lock down...

Sweden FYI was 537 cases per day a month ago and it is now 241. After being demonised early, it may be possible that they can still come out of this with some shred of credibility intact?
Why is the scary thing that Norway and Denmark are averaging 45 and 93 new cases a day but NOT that Sweden are still averaging 241 cases a day?
The idea that lockdowns save lives is an emotional response. They only help control when people will die. The virus isn't going away. Where Sweden loses is when a vaccine is found early, and some Swedes die who could've been vaccinated.
I don't know if I believe that to be true. Many of the lockdowns were to reduce the strain/impact on the health system and help ensure people who needed the medical care could access it.
User avatar
Ali's Choice
Posts: 29828
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Queensland

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

394 new cases in Victoria over the past 24 hours, 17 new deaths.
User avatar
Muttonbirds
Posts: 1800
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:22 am
Location: Aotearoa

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

Ali's Choice wrote:394 new cases in Victoria over the past 24 hours, 17 new deaths.
Tragic. By tomorrow Australia's Covid death toll will have tripled since they had a lid on it in May. At that point right through to July it was just 102.
User avatar
CrazyIslander
Posts: 20017
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:34 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by CrazyIslander »

Ali's Choice wrote:394 new cases in Victoria over the past 24 hours, 17 new deaths.
There were 29 on ventilators last night, I wonder if it's 17 from that number. Or some taken off ventilators and left to die. Sound worrying that there might not be enough ventilators
User avatar
Ellafan
Posts: 5102
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ellafan »

6.Jones wrote:
Now is the time for Australia to make a huge loan to itself at 0% interest and write down the debt, never to be repaid. There'll be no inflationary effect. All the QE since the GFC has had no inflationary effect.
That sounds like printing money. Deeper history tells us that would be a bad idea.
User avatar
CrazyIslander
Posts: 20017
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:34 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by CrazyIslander »

Ellafan wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Now is the time for Australia to make a huge loan to itself at 0% interest and write down the debt, never to be repaid. There'll be no inflationary effect. All the QE since the GFC has had no inflationary effect.
That sounds like printing money. Deeper history tells us that would be a bad idea.
What's the difference between that and borrowing from overseas?
User avatar
Enzedder
Posts: 20204
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: End of the road, turn right and first house on the left

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Enzedder »

Ali's Choice wrote:394 new cases in Victoria over the past 24 hours, 17 new deaths.
:(( :(( :((
User avatar
kiap
Posts: 20043
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by kiap »

CrazyIslander wrote:
Ellafan wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Now is the time for Australia to make a huge loan to itself at 0% interest and write down the debt, never to be repaid. There'll be no inflationary effect. All the QE since the GFC has had no inflationary effect.
That sounds like printing money. Deeper history tells us that would be a bad idea.
What's the difference between that and borrowing from overseas?
6.Jones has mentioned this plan before. It's an innovative concept known in circles that are really beyond the ken of a "bunyip" economist like me. However, it sorta makes sense. If there is a time for it, it's now.

Foreign debt comes with foreign control. Unlike (say) members of the EU, we have a sovereign currency. A sovereign government decides the terms and how (and if) it makes its own debt payments for such a loan.
User avatar
kiap
Posts: 20043
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by kiap »

Muttonbirds wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:394 new cases in Victoria over the past 24 hours, 17 new deaths.
Tragic. By tomorrow Australia's Covid death toll will have tripled since they had a lid on it in May. At that point right through to July it was just 102.
There's always going to be percentage of deaths. Cases go up and - with some weeks delay - so do deaths.

The upside on today's data is the shape of the daily cases curve. With a bit of luck, it may have hit the peak.

Image

A significant difference with the first wave, though, is the time span being wider. It's going to be most of the way through September at least before a significant easing of restrictions in Melbourne.
User avatar
Clogs
Posts: 4591
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

UncleFB wrote:
Clogs wrote:
The scary thing is that Norway is now averaging 45 new cases a day (7 day rolling average) up from 7 a month ago and Denmark is now averaging 93 cases a day up from 17 a month ago. Fvck Finland (joke) but they have had a 300% increase in the last month too from 6 to about 18 a day. From all appearances they are all about to go into a second wave and potentially another lock down...

Sweden FYI was 537 cases per day a month ago and it is now 241. After being demonised early, it may be possible that they can still come out of this with some shred of credibility intact?
Why is the scary thing that Norway and Denmark are averaging 45 and 93 new cases a day but NOT that Sweden are still averaging 241 cases a day?
The trend. Sweden is rapidly trending down. The other nations are on a similar trajectory to Israel, Australia, Spain etc.

If you use that data and fast forward 4-6 weeks where do you think things are headed?
User avatar
Clogs
Posts: 4591
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Yer Man wrote:
Clogs wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Farva wrote:They are facing the worst downturn since 1980.

Granted however that they have outperformed other Nordic nations economically. But it cost them 6k dead.

And it’s a very sharp downturn still.
I think all the Nordic nations are about the same now economically.

The scary thing is that Norway is now averaging 45 new cases a day (7 day rolling average) up from 7 a month ago and Denmark is now averaging 93 cases a day up from 17 a month ago. Fvck Finland (joke) but they have had a 300% increase in the last month too from 6 to about 18 a day. From all appearances they are all about to go into a second wave and potentially another lock down...

Sweden FYI was 537 cases per day a month ago and it is now 241. After being demonised early, it may be possible that they can still come out of this with some shred of credibility intact?
Or maybe Sweden is just running behind the others since it's first wave went on much longer than it's neighbours.
I'd still be very sceptical about drawing any conclusions from isolated data points.
Sweden may not even get a second wave. That appears to have been their strategy. For their sake lets hope so.
User avatar
Muttonbirds
Posts: 1800
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:22 am
Location: Aotearoa

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

Clogs wrote:
Yer Man wrote:
Clogs wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Farva wrote:They are facing the worst downturn since 1980.

Granted however that they have outperformed other Nordic nations economically. But it cost them 6k dead.

And it’s a very sharp downturn still.
I think all the Nordic nations are about the same now economically.

The scary thing is that Norway is now averaging 45 new cases a day (7 day rolling average) up from 7 a month ago and Denmark is now averaging 93 cases a day up from 17 a month ago. Fvck Finland (joke) but they have had a 300% increase in the last month too from 6 to about 18 a day. From all appearances they are all about to go into a second wave and potentially another lock down...

Sweden FYI was 537 cases per day a month ago and it is now 241. After being demonised early, it may be possible that they can still come out of this with some shred of credibility intact?
Or maybe Sweden is just running behind the others since it's first wave went on much longer than it's neighbours.
I'd still be very sceptical about drawing any conclusions from isolated data points.
Sweden may not even get a second wave. That appears to have been their strategy. For their sake lets hope so.
When counties like Sweden throw their elderly and vulnerable under the bus early on there are few people left for a 'second wave' of Covid-19 to kill.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Don’t talk about Sweden unless you’ve read more than the headlines.
They took an evidence-based approach considering the trade-offs to total shutdown. They made mistakes but it wasn’t political or cynical - it was the scientists calling the shots.

For countries that aren’t isolated islands, there isn’t an opportunity to ‘eradicate’ the virus. Sweden has hundreds of border crossings and a society and economy far more integrated with other nations than you’d understand. No country, that is not a little, tiny island has been able to eradicate the virus, which should tell you something about why NZ is so amazing compared to everywhere else. Meanwhile, most of the countries that condemned Sweden opened up as soon as it was time for summer holidays - no doubt they’ll follow Sweden’s lead next time their Covid cases spike. Shutting down isn’t really an option unless you can eradicate it. It is only a tool to buy time to ramp up your health system, but this seems to be forgotten now as we all look at the Covid scoreboard and decide who’s ‘won’. It will be interesting to see the numbers in 5 years when this shit might be over.

If they had their time again, the Swedish science bosses would make different calls, but they didn’t throw anyone under a bus. There is more to the costs than ‘economics’ and ‘death’. But the crisis is so sudden and confusing that we haven’t had an opportunity to discuss the total price being paid.
User avatar
EverReady
Posts: 34103
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by EverReady »

Sweden always said this was there plan. I personally thought they were talking absolute bollox as why was nobody else doing it. Stats had a bit more faith and said give it a year. BB always had their backs
User avatar
Ellafan
Posts: 5102
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ellafan »

kiap wrote:
CrazyIslander wrote:
Ellafan wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Now is the time for Australia to make a huge loan to itself at 0% interest and write down the debt, never to be repaid. There'll be no inflationary effect. All the QE since the GFC has had no inflationary effect.
That sounds like printing money. Deeper history tells us that would be a bad idea.
What's the difference between that and borrowing from overseas?
6.Jones has mentioned this plan before. It's an innovative concept known in circles that are really beyond the ken of a "bunyip" economist like me. However, it sorta makes sense. If there is a time for it, it's now.

Foreign debt comes with foreign control. Unlike (say) members of the EU, we have a sovereign currency. A sovereign government decides the terms and how (and if) it makes its own debt payments for such a loan.
Or it could just print as many $100 bills as it likes and hand them out on street corners. Same thing. And, history says "bad idea".
User avatar
Sensible Stephen
Posts: 3000
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:45 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

towny wrote:Don’t talk about Sweden unless you’ve read more than the headlines.
They took an evidence-based approach considering the trade-offs to total shutdown. They made mistakes but it wasn’t political or cynical - it was the scientists calling the shots.

For countries that aren’t isolated islands, there isn’t an opportunity to ‘eradicate’ the virus. Sweden has hundreds of border crossings and a society and economy far more integrated with other nations than you’d understand. No country, that is not a little, tiny island has been able to eradicate the virus, which should tell you something about why NZ is so amazing compared to everywhere else. Meanwhile, most of the countries that condemned Sweden opened up as soon as it was time for summer holidays - no doubt they’ll follow Sweden’s lead next time their Covid cases spike. Shutting down isn’t really an option unless you can eradicate it. It is only a tool to buy time to ramp up your health system, but this seems to be forgotten now as we all look at the Covid scoreboard and decide who’s ‘won’. It will be interesting to see the numbers in 5 years when this shit might be over.

If they had their time again, the Swedish science bosses would make different calls, but they didn’t throw anyone under a bus. There is more to the costs than ‘economics’ and ‘death’. But the crisis is so sudden and confusing that we haven’t had an opportunity to discuss the total price being paid.
Seems like they took one hell of a risk though. Its a novel virus.... and now it turns out immunity wanes after 2 or 3 months... so herd immunity is just as shaky as full eradication, probably much more so. Well way more so. I mean I don't think they have got anywhere close to 70% + infected in a 3 month period... and they are still open to second waves just as Australia is.

They took a flu pandemic approach to a virus with too many unknowns, in my opinion.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

You may be perfectly right. But no major country has gotten rid of it, so what’s the result of those shutdowns? Some people are still alive, for now, but will they stay locked down until there is a vaccine? And if there is no herd immunity, there will never be a vaccine, so..... we all stay locked down forever?

What are the trade-offs? What is the society willing to give up for this? That discussion hasn’t even started - the lunatic right-wing are allowed to have that conversation by themselves.
User avatar
Muttonbirds
Posts: 1800
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:22 am
Location: Aotearoa

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

towny wrote:Don’t talk about Sweden unless you’ve read more than the headlines.
They took an evidence-based approach considering the trade-offs to total shutdown. They made mistakes but it wasn’t political or cynical - it was the scientists calling the shots.

For countries that aren’t isolated islands, there isn’t an opportunity to ‘eradicate’ the virus. Sweden has hundreds of border crossings and a society and economy far more integrated with other nations than you’d understand. No country, that is not a little, tiny island has been able to eradicate the virus, which should tell you something about why NZ is so amazing compared to everywhere else. Meanwhile, most of the countries that condemned Sweden opened up as soon as it was time for summer holidays - no doubt they’ll follow Sweden’s lead next time their Covid cases spike. Shutting down isn’t really an option unless you can eradicate it. It is only a tool to buy time to ramp up your health system, but this seems to be forgotten now as we all look at the Covid scoreboard and decide who’s ‘won’. It will be interesting to see the numbers in 5 years when this shit might be over.

If they had their time again, the Swedish science bosses would make different calls, but they didn’t throw anyone under a bus. There is more to the costs than ‘economics’ and ‘death’. But the crisis is so sudden and confusing that we haven’t had an opportunity to discuss the total price being paid.
It's a failure of collectivism on a massive scale. If the entire globe did what New Zealand did for 5 weeks we'd all be talking about Covid-19 in the past as a painful but short blip and looking forward to full stadiums and full economies right now. :(
User avatar
Sensible Stephen
Posts: 3000
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:45 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

towny wrote:You may be perfectly right. But no major country has gotten rid of it, so what’s the result of those shutdowns? Some people are still alive, for now, but will they stay locked down until there is a vaccine? And if there is no herd immunity, there will never be a vaccine, so..... we all stay locked down forever?

What are the trade-offs? What is the society willing to give up for this? That discussion hasn’t even started - the lunatic right-wing are allowed to have that conversation by themselves.
Well, it wasn't to get rid of it, it was to prep and get ready to manage it, instead of it swamping the hospital system. Australia never set out to eradicate it - though it happened almost by accident in most states.

You can live with the virus, without lockdowns, if you have it chugging along with low numbers, like in Korea. If you let it blow up, shit hits the fan.

Based on what we know now, Sweden did the wrong thing. They don't have any advantage over other countries, like they though they would, herd immunity won't happen.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

If the entire 8 billion people took collective action they could do far more important things than cure corona:
- cure world hunger
- clean drinking water
- eradicate measles, yellow fever, malaria and typhoid

Dehydration kills 1000 Indian kids every day. Corona in comparison is a first world problem, so why would the world be able to collectively agree to a common action when they are not even close on so many way, way bigger issues?
User avatar
Muttonbirds
Posts: 1800
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:22 am
Location: Aotearoa

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Muttonbirds »

towny wrote:If the entire 8 billion people took collective action they could do far more important things than cure corona:
- cure world hunger
- clean drinking water
- eradicate measles, yellow fever, malaria and typhoid

Dehydration kills 1000 Indian kids every day. Corona in comparison is a first world problem, so why would the world be able to collectively agree to a common action when they are not even close on so many way, way bigger issues?
Perhaps if the first world took collective action. We are the ones who seems to have spread it.

NZ has the lowest rate of infections and deaths in the OECD. That's not luck, it's good pandemic management.
User avatar
Harveys
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:39 pm

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Harveys »

towny wrote:Don’t talk about Sweden unless you’ve read more than the headlines.
They took an evidence-based approach considering the trade-offs to total shutdown. They made mistakes but it wasn’t political or cynical - it was the scientists calling the shots.

For countries that aren’t isolated islands, there isn’t an opportunity to ‘eradicate’ the virus. Sweden has hundreds of border crossings and a society and economy far more integrated with other nations than you’d understand. No country, that is not a little, tiny island has been able to eradicate the virus, which should tell you something about why NZ is so amazing compared to everywhere else. Meanwhile, most of the countries that condemned Sweden opened up as soon as it was time for summer holidays - no doubt they’ll follow Sweden’s lead next time their Covid cases spike. Shutting down isn’t really an option unless you can eradicate it. It is only a tool to buy time to ramp up your health system, but this seems to be forgotten now as we all look at the Covid scoreboard and decide who’s ‘won’. It will be interesting to see the numbers in 5 years when this shit might be over.

If they had their time again, the Swedish science bosses would make different calls, but they didn’t throw anyone under a bus. There is more to the costs than ‘economics’ and ‘death’. But the crisis is so sudden and confusing that we haven’t had an opportunity to discuss the total price being paid.

Santa & MB both are pushing their political agendas, MB however is feigning concern for lives lost as he looks down his nose at the rest of the world, Australia in particular. Strange he didn’t seem to be able to muster the same empathy earlier in the year when lives were lost in the bush fires, in fact he openly posted his joy at watching Australia burn.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Muttonbirds wrote:
towny wrote:If the entire 8 billion people took collective action they could do far more important things than cure corona:
- cure world hunger
- clean drinking water
- eradicate measles, yellow fever, malaria and typhoid

Dehydration kills 1000 Indian kids every day. Corona in comparison is a first world problem, so why would the world be able to collectively agree to a common action when they are not even close on so many way, way bigger issues?
Perhaps if the first world took collective action. We are the ones who seems to have spread it.

NZ has the lowest rate of infections and deaths in the OECD. That's not luck, it's good pandemic management.
Now you’re just making stuff up. The first world cannot take collective action for the developing world and ‘we’ didn’t spread it. You’re useless as tits on a bull. Just a mouth looking to piss people off.
User avatar
Farva
Posts: 17417
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: STRAYA PLUM

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Farva »

Ellafan wrote:
kiap wrote:
CrazyIslander wrote:
Ellafan wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Now is the time for Australia to make a huge loan to itself at 0% interest and write down the debt, never to be repaid. There'll be no inflationary effect. All the QE since the GFC has had no inflationary effect.
That sounds like printing money. Deeper history tells us that would be a bad idea.
What's the difference between that and borrowing from overseas?
6.Jones has mentioned this plan before. It's an innovative concept known in circles that are really beyond the ken of a "bunyip" economist like me. However, it sorta makes sense. If there is a time for it, it's now.

Foreign debt comes with foreign control. Unlike (say) members of the EU, we have a sovereign currency. A sovereign government decides the terms and how (and if) it makes its own debt payments for such a loan.
Or it could just print as many $100 bills as it likes and hand them out on street corners. Same thing. And, history says "bad idea".
And yet right now, we have almost zero percent as our official cash rate and are witnessing an historic slowing in the velocity of money. We are in serious risk of deflation, unlike almost every other time in our history.

Printing money right now is a real option. We can’t stimulate the economy using monetary policy as rates are too low. We have stimulated it through fiscal policy but that comes with a cost. But given V is so low, let’s get M up to offset it. I can’t see velocity increasing any time soon.
Last edited by Farva on Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Farva
Posts: 17417
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: STRAYA PLUM

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Farva »

towny wrote:If the entire 8 billion people took collective action they could do far more important things than cure corona:
- cure world hunger
- clean drinking water
- eradicate measles, yellow fever, malaria and typhoid

Dehydration kills 1000 Indian kids every day. Corona in comparison is a first world problem, so why would the world be able to collectively agree to a common action when they are not even close on so many way, way bigger issues?
I’m not convinced the developing world has escaped Scott free. Tests are suggesting half of all people in India slums are infected. Speaking to friends in the Philippines who work in the aid industry (Red Cross, etc) suggest the country has been hammered.

Having said that, short of finding a vaccine, there isn’t much we can do.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Oh, I didn’t mean that Covid skipped the developing world - it’s going to smash it.
Our office in South Africa is terrified. The numbers there look disastrous. India..... we have no idea what the true numbers are, but the known numbers are bad enough.

My point was that Covid is just one more bad thing, and probably not as bad as the existing stuff. 1000 kids a day die in India from dirty water. That is heartbreaking but none of us spend much time thinking about it - me included. What’s Covid compared to that? Yet the western world lets these things happen because the challenges are somehow too much - how could we expect to collectively eradicate Covid, which is way more complicated? The world can’t eradicate chemical weapons or rugby league ffs.
User avatar
Farva
Posts: 17417
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: STRAYA PLUM

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Farva »

towny wrote:Oh, I didn’t mean that Covid skipped the developing world - it’s going to smash it.
Our office in South Africa is terrified. The numbers there look disastrous. India..... we have no idea what the true numbers are, but the known numbers are bad enough.

My point was that Covid is just one more bad thing, and probably not as bad as the existing stuff. 1000 kids a day die in India from dirty water. That is heartbreaking but none of us spend much time thinking about it - me included. What’s Covid compared to that? Yet the western world lets these things happen because the challenges are somehow too much - how could we expect to collectively eradicate Covid, which is way more complicated? The world can’t eradicate chemical weapons or rugby league ffs.
My worry is that should it take off in say India it could be 10x those water numbers. It has potential.
But you are very right. It’s a Western issue this pandemic. The actions being taken are because we aren’t used to dying from infection disease. It happens to other people. And that’s a risk to us because short of a vaccine there will always be somewhere that Covid lingers. India still has leprosy and polio FFS.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Farva wrote:
Ellafan wrote: Printing money right now is a real option. We can’t stimulate the economy using monetary policy as rates are too low. We have stimulated it through fiscal policy but that comes with a cost. But given V is so low, let’s get M up to offset it. I can’t see velocity increasing any time soon.
House prices around here are through the roof. Big layoffs in all industries as the economy is getting smashed, but the prices of assets continues to soar.

That money they’re printing is going to the rich to stop them dumping them and causing a rout. You hand out more cash you’ll have loaves of bread worth $100. Hyperinflation has been a thing for thousands of years - I would have hoped we’d learned our lesson from the previous time we had too much cash in the society. Do we really have to try this experiment again?

This is Pauline Hanson’s kind of economic policy.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Farva wrote:
towny wrote:Oh, I didn’t mean that Covid skipped the developing world - it’s going to smash it.
Our office in South Africa is terrified. The numbers there look disastrous. India..... we have no idea what the true numbers are, but the known numbers are bad enough.

My point was that Covid is just one more bad thing, and probably not as bad as the existing stuff. 1000 kids a day die in India from dirty water. That is heartbreaking but none of us spend much time thinking about it - me included. What’s Covid compared to that? Yet the western world lets these things happen because the challenges are somehow too much - how could we expect to collectively eradicate Covid, which is way more complicated? The world can’t eradicate chemical weapons or rugby league ffs.
My worry is that should it take off in say India it could be 10x those water numbers. It has potential.
But you are very right. It’s a Western issue this pandemic. The actions being taken are because we aren’t used to dying from infection disease. It happens to other people. And that’s a risk to us because short of a vaccine there will always be somewhere that Covid lingers. India still has leprosy and polio FFS.
I think we might have to ‘live with it’ the same way that India lives with polio et al.
User avatar
Blackrock Bullet
Posts: 14575
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: #68

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

EverReady wrote:Sweden always said this was there plan. I personally thought they were talking absolute bollox as why was nobody else doing it. Stats had a bit more faith and said give it a year. BB always had their backs
Nah I thought the initial decision was the wrong one and still do on a risk mitigation perspective. I also did not agree with their lack of contact tracing and testing efforts.

I admire the Danes and Norwegians more, and particularly the Danes. They locked down, assessed the landscape and started reopening several weeks later once they had a clear sight on hospitalisations going down and seeing what interventions worked. There hasn’t been grandstanding. The Norwegians have come out and said that they made lots of mistakes, they’ve also admitted where decisions were political in nature rather than science led. There’s been a bit more honesty with citizens in terms of the trade offs.

What I don’t like is the inability to debate Sweden rationally.

“Sweden has loads of deaths”

1. Vs the grave forecasts, they don’t
2. A lot of the deaths were in care homes, a balls up that many lockdown countries made

“We can’t all do a Sweden”

Actual evidence throughout the world shows that non lockdown measures have driven R below 1 in most countries. I find the lack of faith in the citizenry as a whole in places to be nauseating. That doesn’t mean people or groups get it right all of the time, but move on with it.

“Ha Sweden’s economy is just as trashed”

Well no, that hasn’t been the case.

“Sweden’a strategy was to get to herd immunity, look at the antibody results, what a failure!”

Firstly, we don’t know what the threshold is. Secondly that wasn’t their strategy. What they said was that they believed it would be more helpful to keep continued control of the disease with a level of immunity in the population. The reaction to their statement on Stockholm and believing they were reaching a critical mass of cases for the threshold was the most bizarre. People sneered when the antibody results came out, but they missed why the Swedes were suggesting it. They based it on what they saw in front of them, decreasing infections in Stockholm and decreasing hospitalisations. All the while, less dense areas were ticking up and becoming a greater proportion of cases. People just wanted the answer to be, “they’ve 60% antibodies, they’ve done it”, rather than look at what is happening in front of their eyes.

It goes for all countries, why do we just avoid the evidence in front of us. You can hate the Swedish decision, but that’s been done already, it’s a sunk cost. The other weird thing was the idea that it was apparently some alt right thing to mention them. Maybe Fox News mentioned them a couple of times, but so did Donald Trump in lashing out at them.
towny
Posts: 19181
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Good post!!

To add, there is likely more to immunity than evidence of antibodies.

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19 ... have-shown
User avatar
Blackrock Bullet
Posts: 14575
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: #68

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

towny wrote:Good post!!

To add, there is likely more to immunity than evidence of antibodies.

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19 ... have-shown
Yup
User avatar
terryfinch
Posts: 5150
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by terryfinch »

Muttonbirds wrote:
towny wrote:Don’t talk about Sweden unless you’ve read more than the headlines.
They took an evidence-based approach considering the trade-offs to total shutdown. They made mistakes but it wasn’t political or cynical - it was the scientists calling the shots.

For countries that aren’t isolated islands, there isn’t an opportunity to ‘eradicate’ the virus. Sweden has hundreds of border crossings and a society and economy far more integrated with other nations than you’d understand. No country, that is not a little, tiny island has been able to eradicate the virus, which should tell you something about why NZ is so amazing compared to everywhere else. Meanwhile, most of the countries that condemned Sweden opened up as soon as it was time for summer holidays - no doubt they’ll follow Sweden’s lead next time their Covid cases spike. Shutting down isn’t really an option unless you can eradicate it. It is only a tool to buy time to ramp up your health system, but this seems to be forgotten now as we all look at the Covid scoreboard and decide who’s ‘won’. It will be interesting to see the numbers in 5 years when this shit might be over.

If they had their time again, the Swedish science bosses would make different calls, but they didn’t throw anyone under a bus. There is more to the costs than ‘economics’ and ‘death’. But the crisis is so sudden and confusing that we haven’t had an opportunity to discuss the total price being paid.
It's a failure of collectivism on a massive scale. If the entire globe did what New Zealand did for 5 weeks we'd all be talking about Covid-19 in the past as a painful but short blip and looking forward to full stadiums and full economies right now. :(

Utter bollocks
Post Reply