NZ Politics Thread

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Wilderbeast
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

It was worse for key to do it as his words carried more weight. He was pm, popular and trusted by the public. He was in a far better position to discredit the public sector.

Not an argument I want to have though. As I said, hate it when anyone does it.

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Enzedder
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Enzedder »

deadduck wrote:A 3rd term Prime Minister can get away with that kind of nonsense. Twyford has been in the job 6 months . Everything I've seen of him oozes of smarminess



But fucking Key was the biggest, smarmiest cunt in Parliament from Day 1. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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JB1981
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by JB1981 »

That's poor from Twyford. I will have to ask our baby-faced Treasury Vote Analyst what they made of it when I next see them. It would be pretty funny down the line if the Treasury figures turn out to be correct though.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

JB1981 wrote:That's poor from Twyford. I will have to ask our baby-faced Treasury Vote Analyst what they made of it when I next see them. It would be pretty funny down the line if the Treasury figures turn out to be correct though.


All the vote analysts are babies aren’t they? I noticed that.

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JB1981
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by JB1981 »

Wilderbeast wrote:
JB1981 wrote:That's poor from Twyford. I will have to ask our baby-faced Treasury Vote Analyst what they made of it when I next see them. It would be pretty funny down the line if the Treasury figures turn out to be correct though.


All the vote analysts are babies aren’t they? I noticed that.

They seem to be. Our last one moved on when he became old enough to shave and they rolled another wee fella out.

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Thai guy
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Thai guy »

JB1981 wrote:That's poor from Twyford. I will have to ask our baby-faced Treasury Vote Analyst what they made of it when I next see them. It would be pretty funny down the line if the Treasury figures turn out to be correct though.
They'd halved their numbers since December. Not sure what's changed since then but they don't help their credibility by publishing such a huge variance in figures within months.

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JB1981
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by JB1981 »


Wilderbeast
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

Thai guy wrote:
JB1981 wrote:That's poor from Twyford. I will have to ask our baby-faced Treasury Vote Analyst what they made of it when I next see them. It would be pretty funny down the line if the Treasury figures turn out to be correct though.
They'd halved their numbers since December. Not sure what's changed since then but they don't help their credibility by publishing such a huge variance in figures within months.


If you're going to have a go at the forecast, at least have the decency to find out why they think the numbers have halved. It's a big difference, I'm sure they've listed a reason (or three).

Twyford would do well to remember that their entire spending plan is based on the Treasury's forecasts. Not a good look to imply you don't rate them. What idiot spends money based on a data they don't trust?

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Thai guy »

I have no idea why the Treasury forecast has halved in 5 months. It's not my game. As a layman though it seems weird they can change their mind on something so quickly.

eugenius

Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by eugenius »

Dark wrote:
Flockwitt wrote:
eugenius wrote:
It's all well and good for Robertson to crow about surpluses but that's basically admitting that the tax take is too high. Give it back Grant



I’ve got a startling new idea, how about spend it on social services and society ?

I realise that it might not excite as a few more bucks in your pocket DD , but I’m sure you’ll survive the trauma.

🙄

I think there is a middle ground here. DD does have a point that the tax brackets could move up. Conversely, yep, let's see what needs fixing, and more importantly how well the fixes work, before happily declaring the government's so rich it doesn't need as much income. It won't hurt that the tax brackets stay in place for a couple more years and the government looks to make ground in areas that they felt were neglected under National... after all that's what they are in for.

Curiously though there was a key fund manager thinking Labour might run a deficit. Not sure how this working in terms of expectations of the NZ$ which has been steadily dropping again.


Lol

Um no

They are in because Winston decided he wanted them in

The same as if he had picked National

Trying to make out it was some sort of call from the people for a tide of change is pushing it.



Just a little thinking reveals that -


Few that voted for NZfirst did so out of a love for the status quo .

Indeed Winston was rabidly critical of the National government ideologically and often very personally .

Certainly even less of a fraction of Labour and Green voters didn’t vote for change.

There’s your vote .

Cry me a river .
Last edited by eugenius on Fri May 18, 2018 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kiweez
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by kiweez »

deadduck wrote:I see Phil Twyford is out making friends and influencing people again... erm

Image
Twyford slams 'kids at Treasury'


He must be the most unlikeable of the current Cabinet surely, and Cabinet has Shane Jones in it!


No.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

Thai guy wrote:I have no idea why the Treasury forecast has halved in 5 months. It's not my game. As a layman though it seems weird they can change their mind on something so quickly.


Look it up ffs

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Dark
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

eugenius wrote:
Dark wrote:
Flockwitt wrote:
eugenius wrote:
It's all well and good for Robertson to crow about surpluses but that's basically admitting that the tax take is too high. Give it back Grant



I’ve got a startling new idea, how about spend it on social services and society ?

I realise that it might not excite as a few more bucks in your pocket DD , but I’m sure you’ll survive the trauma.

🙄

I think there is a middle ground here. DD does have a point that the tax brackets could move up. Conversely, yep, let's see what needs fixing, and more importantly how well the fixes work, before happily declaring the government's so rich it doesn't need as much income. It won't hurt that the tax brackets stay in place for a couple more years and the government looks to make ground in areas that they felt were neglected under National... after all that's what they are in for.

Curiously though there was a key fund manager thinking Labour might run a deficit. Not sure how this working in terms of expectations of the NZ$ which has been steadily dropping again.


Lol

Um no

They are in because Winston decided he wanted them in

The same as if he had picked National

Trying to make out it was some sort of call from the people for a tide of change is pushing it.



Just a little thinking reveals that -


Few that voted for NZfirst did so out of a love for the status quo .

Indeed Winston was rabidly critical of the National government ideologically and often very personally .

Certainly even less of a fraction of Labour and Green voters didn’t vote for change.

There’s your vote .

Cry me a river .


If you are so insecure about the current govt someone simply stating fact gets you all defensive I suggest you should harden tfu

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Tehui
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Tehui »

Dark wrote:
If you are so insecure about the current govt someone simply stating fact gets you all defensive I suggest you should harden tfu


It comes down to interpretation. The two key facts are this:

1. National won more votes than any other single party
2. More people did not vote for National, than people who did vote for National.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

More importantly I think, more people voted for opposition parties than those that had formed the previous government.

It was hardly overwhelming though, and it rarely is. Does anyone know the largest majority in government since MMP began? I expect its tiny.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by guy smiley »

Wilderbeast wrote:More importantly I think, more people voted for opposition parties than those that had formed the previous government.

It was hardly overwhelming though, and it rarely is. Does anyone know the largest majority in government since MMP began? I expect its tiny.


More importantly, how long will the combined bleating from people like Dark go on for and how can we harness that energy for the national grid?

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Enzedder »

Here's a brief history of MMP governments since 1996:

1996: The first MMP government was formed by National and NZ First. It took six weeks to negotiate and was a full coalition, with cabinet ministers from both parties. Winston Peters was Treasurer, a contrived position, and deputy prime minister. It fell apart after Jim Bolger was ousted as prime minister and replaced by Jenny Shipley, who lost the next election.

1999: Labour, under Helen Clark, formed a coalition with the Alliance but the two parties didn't command a majority in parliament. Clark needed the Greens, who had won seven seats. They agreed to a support arrangement which gave the government sufficient votes on confidence and supply to hold office. The Greens were not part of the government.

2002: National was trounced and Labour went into coalition with the Progressives, a splinter of the Alliance, which held two seats. But they were still short of a majority and Clark had the choice of three support partners - NZ First, the Greens and United Future. She negotiated a support agreement with United Future.

2005: National came back strongly but Labour again won more seats than its rival, 50 to National's 48. By now Clark was accustomed to running a minority government with the support of the smaller parties, and she negotiated agreements with NZ First, United Future and the Greens. Peters became Foreign Minister outside cabinet, and Peter Dunne Minister of Revenue, also outside cabinet. The Greens had no positions.

2008: National, now under John Key, won 58 seats against Labour's 43. Key decided to run a minority government with support agreements from ACT, United Future and later the Maori Party. It was more than he needed and broadened his government. Ministerial positions were given to minor parties but they were not in cabinet.

2011: Key was by now a popular prime minister and brought National back with an increased share of the party vote - 47.3 per cent which gave the party 59 seats. It was a simple matter for Key to again sign up the minor parties in support roles and the minority government was able to maintain its stability.

2014: Labour's turn to be trounced and on election night National held 61 seats, the first outright majority by a single party since MMP was introduced. But it lost a seat on special votes and Key was again running a minority government with support from his old allies ACT, United Future and the Maori Party. In November 2016 Key resigned and left parliament. Bill English was chosen by National's caucus to take over as prime minister.

2017: National, under English, won the most seats - 56 to Labour's 46. But Labour, with the Greens and NZ First, had enough seats for a majority. National could also hold a majority and stay in power, but not without NZ First. Winston Peters was again the kingmaker.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by guy smiley »

:lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

guy smiley wrote:
Wilderbeast wrote:More importantly I think, more people voted for opposition parties than those that had formed the previous government.

It was hardly overwhelming though, and it rarely is. Does anyone know the largest majority in government since MMP began? I expect its tiny.


More importantly, how long will the combined bleating from people like Dark go on for and how can we harness that energy for the national grid?


We’ve got wind and gas already. It won’t be long now :nod:

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


There hasn’t been a majority yet, though Key came super close.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

Enzedder wrote:Here's a brief history of MMP governments since 1996:

1996: The first MMP government was formed by National and NZ First. It took six weeks to negotiate and was a full coalition, with cabinet ministers from both parties. Winston Peters was Treasurer, a contrived position, and deputy prime minister. It fell apart after Jim Bolger was ousted as prime minister and replaced by Jenny Shipley, who lost the next election.

1999: Labour, under Helen Clark, formed a coalition with the Alliance but the two parties didn't command a majority in parliament. Clark needed the Greens, who had won seven seats. They agreed to a support arrangement which gave the government sufficient votes on confidence and supply to hold office. The Greens were not part of the government.

2002: National was trounced and Labour went into coalition with the Progressives, a splinter of the Alliance, which held two seats. But they were still short of a majority and Clark had the choice of three support partners - NZ First, the Greens and United Future. She negotiated a support agreement with United Future.

2005: National came back strongly but Labour again won more seats than its rival, 50 to National's 48. By now Clark was accustomed to running a minority government with the support of the smaller parties, and she negotiated agreements with NZ First, United Future and the Greens. Peters became Foreign Minister outside cabinet, and Peter Dunne Minister of Revenue, also outside cabinet. The Greens had no positions.

2008: National, now under John Key, won 58 seats against Labour's 43. Key decided to run a minority government with support agreements from ACT, United Future and later the Maori Party. It was more than he needed and broadened his government. Ministerial positions were given to minor parties but they were not in cabinet.

2011: Key was by now a popular prime minister and brought National back with an increased share of the party vote - 47.3 per cent which gave the party 59 seats. It was a simple matter for Key to again sign up the minor parties in support roles and the minority government was able to maintain its stability.

2014: Labour's turn to be trounced and on election night National held 61 seats, the first outright majority by a single party since MMP was introduced. But it lost a seat on special votes and Key was again running a minority government with support from his old allies ACT, United Future and the Maori Party. In November 2016 Key resigned and left parliament. Bill English was chosen by National's caucus to take over as prime minister.

2017: National, under English, won the most seats - 56 to Labour's 46. But Labour, with the Greens and NZ First, had enough seats for a majority. National could also hold a majority and stay in power, but not without NZ First. Winston Peters was again the kingmaker.


Should probably be also pointed out that at the time of each of Keys elections national didn't need the Maori Party party for numbers and invited them in

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Tehui »

Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way


The same thing happened 22 years ago in 1996. Where you have you been?

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Dark
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

Tehui wrote:
Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way


The same thing happened 22 years ago in 1996. Where you have you been?


Not being old enough to care about politics 22 years ago

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dam0
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by dam0 »

Dark wrote:
Enzedder wrote:Here's a brief history of MMP governments since 1996:

1996: The first MMP government was formed by National and NZ First. It took six weeks to negotiate and was a full coalition, with cabinet ministers from both parties. Winston Peters was Treasurer, a contrived position, and deputy prime minister. It fell apart after Jim Bolger was ousted as prime minister and replaced by Jenny Shipley, who lost the next election.

1999: Labour, under Helen Clark, formed a coalition with the Alliance but the two parties didn't command a majority in parliament. Clark needed the Greens, who had won seven seats. They agreed to a support arrangement which gave the government sufficient votes on confidence and supply to hold office. The Greens were not part of the government.

2002: National was trounced and Labour went into coalition with the Progressives, a splinter of the Alliance, which held two seats. But they were still short of a majority and Clark had the choice of three support partners - NZ First, the Greens and United Future. She negotiated a support agreement with United Future.

2005: National came back strongly but Labour again won more seats than its rival, 50 to National's 48. By now Clark was accustomed to running a minority government with the support of the smaller parties, and she negotiated agreements with NZ First, United Future and the Greens. Peters became Foreign Minister outside cabinet, and Peter Dunne Minister of Revenue, also outside cabinet. The Greens had no positions.

2008: National, now under John Key, won 58 seats against Labour's 43. Key decided to run a minority government with support agreements from ACT, United Future and later the Maori Party. It was more than he needed and broadened his government. Ministerial positions were given to minor parties but they were not in cabinet.

2011: Key was by now a popular prime minister and brought National back with an increased share of the party vote - 47.3 per cent which gave the party 59 seats. It was a simple matter for Key to again sign up the minor parties in support roles and the minority government was able to maintain its stability.

2014: Labour's turn to be trounced and on election night National held 61 seats, the first outright majority by a single party since MMP was introduced. But it lost a seat on special votes and Key was again running a minority government with support from his old allies ACT, United Future and the Maori Party. In November 2016 Key resigned and left parliament. Bill English was chosen by National's caucus to take over as prime minister.

2017: National, under English, won the most seats - 56 to Labour's 46. But Labour, with the Greens and NZ First, had enough seats for a majority. National could also hold a majority and stay in power, but not without NZ First. Winston Peters was again the kingmaker.


Should probably be also pointed out that at the time of each of Keys elections national didn't need the Maori Party party for numbers and invited them in

Yes I think they did that so that they could counterbalance the extreme views of ACT where required. National (and I suspect Key in particular) did not want to need ACT to pass legislation.

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Tehui
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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Tehui »

dam0 wrote:
Dark wrote:Should probably be also pointed out that at the time of each of Keys elections national didn't need the Maori Party party for numbers and invited them in

Yes I think they did that so that they could counterbalance the extreme views of ACT where required. National (and I suspect Key in particular) did not want to need ACT to pass legislation.


I thought it was a smart move by National. They acquired the Maori Party's support when the Nats did not need them, in order to acquire the Maori Party's support in the future when / if National did need them. Unfortunately for the Nats, the Maori vote took the Maori Party out of the equation, and threw their votes back at Labour. When 2017 came around, the Nats were alienated and had no allies. They only have themselves to blame for undermining NZF.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Wilderbeast »

Yeah it was smart for National but debatable for the Maori party. They got a few wins out of it, but at the cost of their existence.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by UncleFB »

Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way

You wouldn’t be bleating on about it page after page though - so that’s one positive if Winny went with the Nats.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by deadduck »

I actually think with the way our MMP is structured at the moment we'll see National be the largest most popular party and be in Opposition for many years to come. In the absence of a genuine centrist party to form a coalition with, they can't really get enough seats.

So until Winston retires or dies National will have to be content with what they've got.
The next leader of NZ First won't have anywhere near as much anti-National baggage

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

UncleFB wrote:
Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way

You wouldn’t be bleating on about it page after page though - so that’s one positive if Winny went with the Nats.


I probably wouldn't

Mainly because if Winston had decided to make national our govt they wouldn't have tried to pretend it was some sort of huge move for change, which is utter pants.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Fat Old Git »

guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


Yep. Although this is the first time the party with the most votes hasn't ended up in the driving seat so you can see why it might feel wrong to many. But that is MMP for you and it was bound to happen eventually.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by UncleFB »

Dark wrote:
UncleFB wrote:
Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way

You wouldn’t be bleating on about it page after page though - so that’s one positive if Winny went with the Nats.


I probably wouldn't

Mainly because my team won.

Fixed

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

UncleFB wrote:
Dark wrote:
UncleFB wrote:
Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I never said the result isnt fair or is wrong

I've just stated facts as they are with the current MMP system

One bloke who hardly anyone voted for picked our govt.

Would be the same if he went the other way

You wouldn’t be bleating on about it page after page though - so that’s one positive if Winny went with the Nats.


I probably wouldn't

Mainly because my team won.

Fixed


If it makes you feel better

But then I don't support national

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by guy smiley »

Dark wrote:
If it makes you feel better

But then I don't support national



Yeah you do, you just don't know it.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by booji boy »

guy smiley wrote::lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I think the key difference is that the party with the largest share of the vote formed the govt in those previous elections. This is the first time the party with clearly the largest share of the vote is not in govt.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by guy smiley »

booji boy wrote:
guy smiley wrote: :lol: :lol:

So it's nearly always delivered a minority government but this time around Dark doesn't like it?


I think the key difference is that the party with the largest share of the vote formed the govt in those previous elections. This is the first time the party with clearly the largest share of the vote is not in govt.


I understand the distinction but that's just being salty over the same underlying constant... that being we almost always end up with some form of minority government.

I think that's actually a good thing. it means they have to work at being a government, not just a ruling party.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Dark »

guy smiley wrote:
Dark wrote:
If it makes you feel better

But then I don't support national



Yeah you do, you just don't know it.


Not really

I just have never nailed myself to one party. Never actually understood people who do

Depends on the situation at the time and the policys

I've voted in the past for both Labour and National and others.

And locally it's different again

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by UncleFB »

Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
Dark wrote:
If it makes you feel better

But then I don't support national



Yeah you do, you just don't know it.


Not really

I just have never nailed myself to one party. Never actually understood people who do

Depends on the situation at the time and the policys

I've voted in the past for both Labour and National and others.

And locally it's different again

:lol: Next Mike Hoskings is going to claim he doesn't support National.

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by Auckman »

UncleFB wrote:
Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
Dark wrote:
If it makes you feel better

But then I don't support national



Yeah you do, you just don't know it.


Not really

I just have never nailed myself to one party. Never actually understood people who do

Depends on the situation at the time and the policys

I've voted in the past for both Labour and National and others.

And locally it's different again

:lol: Next Mike Hoskings is going to claim he doesn't support National.


:lol:

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Re: NZ Politics Thread

Post by guy smiley »

UncleFB wrote:
Dark wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
Dark wrote:
If it makes you feel better

But then I don't support national



Yeah you do, you just don't know it.


Not really

I just have never nailed myself to one party. Never actually understood people who do

Depends on the situation at the time and the policys

I've voted in the past for both Labour and National and others.

And locally it's different again

:lol: Next Mike Hoskings is going to claim he doesn't support National.


:lol: :thumbup:

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