Bellicose Boris bonkers Brexit bonanza....

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tazman77
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tazman77 »

Wowsers
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fishfoodie
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by fishfoodie »

Petej wrote:
SamShark wrote:
sorCrer wrote:As protestors marched through biting winds along the River Tees, one organiser, Mandy Childs, said the rally summoned the spirit of Theodore Roosevelt in his 1910 speech, the Man in the Arena, about victory belonging to those who take action. “For every person here,” she said, “we’ve got a million people marching with us. I can feel that presence.” Another, an army veteran, beamed at the Union Jacks overhead: “It’s like walking in the Falklands, following the flag again.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... out-farage

:lol:
This is the mass movement - the millions of people who will riot instantly if Brexit isnt delivered to the specification of Jacob Rees Mogg.

Sadly the bots who Retweet Farage can;t march.
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/11 ... 39712?s=09
March to leave update. Down to 60 now. Any of the board leavers on it?
Rumor has it*, that the rest of the marchers couldn't proceed; as their ankle tags went off, & their POs told them they had to go back home.



* This rumor may have just been started by me.
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Petej
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

sewa wrote:
etherman wrote:Bercow about ton drop a bombshell?
Certainly looks that way
Good. Stops May pissing about endlessly trying to bribe people.
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Petej
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

fishfoodie wrote:
Petej wrote:
SamShark wrote:
sorCrer wrote:As protestors marched through biting winds along the River Tees, one organiser, Mandy Childs, said the rally summoned the spirit of Theodore Roosevelt in his 1910 speech, the Man in the Arena, about victory belonging to those who take action. “For every person here,” she said, “we’ve got a million people marching with us. I can feel that presence.” Another, an army veteran, beamed at the Union Jacks overhead: “It’s like walking in the Falklands, following the flag again.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... out-farage

:lol:
This is the mass movement - the millions of people who will riot instantly if Brexit isnt delivered to the specification of Jacob Rees Mogg.

Sadly the bots who Retweet Farage can;t march.
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/11 ... 39712?s=09
March to leave update. Down to 60 now. Any of the board leavers on it?
Rumor has it*, that the rest of the marchers couldn't proceed; as their ankle tags went off, & their POs told them they had to go back home.



* This rumor may have just been started by me.
I know that isn't true as thanks to grayling the POs wouldn't know.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
etherman wrote:Bercow about ton drop a bombshell?
Certainly looks that way
Good. Stops May pissing about endlessly trying to bribe people.
Well, it's aimed at that, but she will connive to try again with cosmetic changes, guaranteed.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by C69 »

So what exactly does this mean to the Brexit process?
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Chuckles1188
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

c69 wrote:So what exactly does this mean to the Brexit process?
It's forcing the issue - May can't just wind the clock down and hope (without much reason) that enough MPs flip to save her deal. It's No Deal, a new government, or No Brexit
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sewa
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sewa »

c69 wrote:So what exactly does this mean to the Brexit process?
She can't just resubmit the same deal as was rejected last week. That is her only remaining card to play gone
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

c69 wrote:So what exactly does this mean to the Brexit process?
I'm guessing May's options as below, but others can feel free to add more:

(i) Ask for extension
(ii) Soften deal to Labour's position
(iii) Cosmetic changes to deal, hope speaker allows.
(iv) No-deal
(v) Revoke A50
(vi) Resign
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
c69 wrote:So what exactly does this mean to the Brexit process?
I'm guessing May's options as below, but others can feel free to add more:

(i) Ask for extension
(ii) Soften deal to Labour's position
(iii) No-deal
(iv) Revoke A50
(v) Resign
i - Had to do that anyway tbf
ii - Impossible as Labour don't have a position, if she moves to where they are they'll move again
iii - Quite, Parliament have technically voted to say they don't want it but refused to do anything to actually stop it
iv - Yup, though she'll hack Philips' head off with a fountain pen before doing this
v - See above

Re your edit, Bercow has said context and circumstance matter, so in theory she could just wait it out and see if he blinks. Trouble is that the timeframe at this stage doesn't really make that viable. Yet another reason why triggering Article 50 with no plan and then calling a general election was a terrible decision which the government (and also, y'know, the country) is now paying for
Last edited by Chuckles1188 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mahoney
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Mahoney »

I think Bercow's on pretty dodgy constitutional ground here... yes, letter of the conventions and all that, but in the circumstances this is a highly political intervention. There has clearly been movement that offered some hope of it passing this time.
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sewa
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sewa »

Makes a no deal Brexit very likely although a long extension has to be favourite imo

''Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, says he is delighted to see Bercow following precedent. There is more joy in heaven over one sinner who has repented, he says, alluding to a ruling from Bercow a few weeks ago that ignored precedent and infuriated Brexiters.

Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, says what Bercow has said makes an enormous amount of sense.''
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Mahoney wrote:I think Bercow's on pretty dodgy constitutional ground here... yes, letter of the conventions and all that, but in the circumstances this is a highly political intervention. There has clearly been movement that offered some hope of it passing this time.
Really? What movement would that be? The first one went down by over 200 votes, the second by over 150, and the law of diminishing returns applies - the easiest MPs to move will have been the first ones, the later into the process you get the more you're trying to shift immovable objects.
Last edited by Chuckles1188 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
C69
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by C69 »

As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
I hope this totally fcwks up Brexit, if so then good on Bercow.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

Well Bercow has killed MV 3 or 4 or whatever...perhaps rightfully.


Long long extension here we come.

Remain is still in play - the ERG blew it.
Last edited by tc27 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Chuckles1188
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
That you think they have a position don't make it so. They want the same unicorn Brexit the Tories do - all the benefits, none of the downsides. It's as ephemeral and impossible as anything the Tories have ever advocated
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

tc27 wrote:Well Bercow has killed MV 3 or 4 or whatever...perhaps rightfully.

Long long extension here we come.

Remain is still in play - the ERG blew it.
Tories will bottom out at the local elections, party chiefs reckons they could lose 1,000 councillors.
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Mahoney
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Mahoney »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
Mahoney wrote:I think Bercow's on pretty dodgy constitutional ground here... yes, letter of the conventions and all that, but in the circumstances this is a highly political intervention. There has clearly been movement that offered some hope of it passing this time.
Really? What movement would that be? The first one went down by over 200 votes, the second by over 150, and the law of diminishing returns applies - the easiest MPs to move will have been the first ones, the later into the process you get the more you're trying to shift immovable objects.
The DUP have been muttering about perhaps changing, JRM has flirted with changing ("a bad deal is better than no Brexit") and would take some of the ERG with him. That's movement. May not be enough movement, but that's why I said some hope.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

Rugby2023 wrote:
Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
etherman wrote:Bercow about ton drop a bombshell?
Certainly looks that way
Good. Stops May pissing about endlessly trying to bribe people.
Well, it's aimed at that, but she will connive to try again with cosmetic changes, guaranteed.
Undoubtedly. Was interested in an article by brexiteer Olivier norgrove
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssion=true
On his Twitter account he also wrote about how frustrating it was that only the hardliners were asked for their opinions by the media.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Sandstorm »

tc27 wrote: the ERG blew it.
No shit. They're a shower of idiots
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by SaintK »

c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
I hope this totally fcwks up Brexit, if so then good on Bercow.
Not just different by wording, he says; different by substance.
Bercow implies he will not allow a new vote on the Brexit deal unless the EU agrees to further changes to it.
This takes Bercow’s ruling much further than his original words implied.

Given that the EU has said it will not make any further changes to the withdrawal agreement, Bercow’s answer to Benn may have killed off all prospect of a MV3 vote.
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sewa
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sewa »

Mahoney wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
Mahoney wrote:I think Bercow's on pretty dodgy constitutional ground here... yes, letter of the conventions and all that, but in the circumstances this is a highly political intervention. There has clearly been movement that offered some hope of it passing this time.
Really? What movement would that be? The first one went down by over 200 votes, the second by over 150, and the law of diminishing returns applies - the easiest MPs to move will have been the first ones, the later into the process you get the more you're trying to shift immovable objects.
The DUP have been muttering about perhaps changing, JRM has flirted with changing ("a bad deal is better than no Brexit") and would take some of the ERG with him. That's movement. May not be enough movement, but that's why I said some hope.
I am sure Bercow looked at precedent long and hard and discussed with other legal types first to make sure he was being constitutional. That bit you can be sure of

Oh and no 10 are now losing the plot :lol:
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Mahoney wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
Mahoney wrote:I think Bercow's on pretty dodgy constitutional ground here... yes, letter of the conventions and all that, but in the circumstances this is a highly political intervention. There has clearly been movement that offered some hope of it passing this time.
Really? What movement would that be? The first one went down by over 200 votes, the second by over 150, and the law of diminishing returns applies - the easiest MPs to move will have been the first ones, the later into the process you get the more you're trying to shift immovable objects.
The DUP have been muttering about perhaps changing, JRM has flirted with changing ("a bad deal is better than no Brexit") and would take some of the ERG with him. That's movement. May not be enough movement, but that's why I said some hope.
The DUP talked about being willing to change position if the government brought them into the negotiating room with the EU and some other ridiculous nonsense I can't be bothered to remember. But the EU have said negotiations are closed, so that's not movement. JRM has flirted with changing but a) the ERG themselves are splitting on this one and b) even if they all came across the government would still be over 100 votes short
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Sandstorm »

SaintK wrote:
Bercow implies he will not allow a new vote on the Brexit deal unless the EU agrees to further changes to it.
See? It's the evil EU scuppering the plans again!! :x
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
If it's looking like no-deal, Bercow will accept cosmetic changes.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by C69 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
That you think they have a position don't make it so. They want the same unicorn Brexit the Tories do - all the benefits, none of the downsides. It's as ephemeral and impossible as anything the Tories have ever advocated
They clearly have a position, I have never said it is a workable plausibke position. It is however a position, and just because you don't deem it to have any merit does not mean it is not their position.
Now stick that supercilious attitude up your arse.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Margin_Walker »

tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
Yep, the proper Tory loons seem fairly pleased about this turn of events.

Something for remainders there, but no deal probably more likely than it was this morning.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by fishfoodie »

tc27 wrote:Well Bercow has killed MV 3 or 4 or whatever...perhaps rightfully.

Long long extension here we come.

Remain is still in play - the ERG blew it.
The next move on the WA is on May. It was the EU27 that conceded ground the last time, & gave her more time & suffered her codpiece.

So before she gets anything for MV3, I think she has to weaken the red lines; & the obvious one if for the Irish Sea border, to enable the GB unilateral withdrawal; if the trade deal isn't agreed.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by message #2527204 »

c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
I hope this totally fcwks up Brexit, if so then good on Bercow.
They have a position at odds with a deal that the EU say will not be reopened or renegotiated.
Any of us can have that, and it's a f**king indefensible position to take if they wanted a deal. But it will fulfil the objective and otally suck up Brexit, as you say.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

c69 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
That you think they have a position don't make it so. They want the same unicorn Brexit the Tories do - all the benefits, none of the downsides. It's as ephemeral and impossible as anything the Tories have ever advocated
They clearly have a position, I have never said it is a workable plausibke position. It is however a position, and just because you don't deem it to have any merit does not mean it is not their position.
Now stick that supercilious attitude up your arse.
Okay.

You are wrong.

Is that better?
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

fishfoodie wrote:The next move on the WA is on May. It was the EU27 that conceded ground the last time, & gave her more time & suffered her codpiece.

So before she gets anything for MV3, I think she has to weaken the red lines; & the obvious one if for the Irish Sea border, to enable the GB unilateral withdrawal; if the trade deal isn't agreed.
Won't get past her own Party, the DUP and as Chuckles pointed out, Labour will move the goal-posts.
Last edited by Rugby2023 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tc27
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

fishfoodie wrote:
tc27 wrote:Well Bercow has killed MV 3 or 4 or whatever...perhaps rightfully.

Long long extension here we come.

Remain is still in play - the ERG blew it.
The next move on the WA is on May. It was the EU27 that conceded ground the last time, & gave her more time & suffered her codpiece.

So before she gets anything for MV3, I think she has to weaken the red lines; & the obvious one if for the Irish Sea border, to enable the GB unilateral withdrawal; if the trade deal isn't agreed.
Maybe a change to the political declaration rather than the WA will suffice to allow the motion to be bought again? In that case it may be possible IMO.

Bercow is effectively the most powerful person in the UK at the moment.....
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by C69 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
c69 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
That you think they have a position don't make it so. They want the same unicorn Brexit the Tories do - all the benefits, none of the downsides. It's as ephemeral and impossible as anything the Tories have ever advocated
They clearly have a position, I have never said it is a workable plausibke position. It is however a position, and just because you don't deem it to have any merit does not mean it is not their position.
Now stick that supercilious attitude up your arse.
Okay.

You are wrong.

Is that better?
It would have been better for you to have stated you disagreed with my position on Labour's position tbh.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
If it's looking like no-deal, Bercow will accept cosmetic changes.
In his statement he did mention the fact that the second vote came with a promise to move a vote on no-deal and a vote on an extension. So I wonder if MV3 came with a promise to hold a second referendum, whether that would pass Bercow's test
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

tc27 wrote:Maybe a change to the political declaration rather than the WA will suffice to allow the motion to be bought again? In that case it may be possible IMO.

Bercow is effectively the most powerful person in the UK at the moment.....
So is she asking for extension on Thursday or changes to P/D? Can she do both?
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

tc27 wrote:
fishfoodie wrote:
tc27 wrote:Well Bercow has killed MV 3 or 4 or whatever...perhaps rightfully.

Long long extension here we come.

Remain is still in play - the ERG blew it.
The next move on the WA is on May. It was the EU27 that conceded ground the last time, & gave her more time & suffered her codpiece.

So before she gets anything for MV3, I think she has to weaken the red lines; & the obvious one if for the Irish Sea border, to enable the GB unilateral withdrawal; if the trade deal isn't agreed.
Maybe a change to the political declaration rather than the WA will suffice to allow the motion to be bought again? In that case it may be possible IMO.
He hasn't explicitly ruled it out, but the quote
On test for another meaningful vote: "Demonstrable change to the proposition would be required. Simply a change about an opinion about something wouldn't constitute a change in the offer."
suggests it's unlikely. Government's best option probably trying to overrule by passing a motion to suspend Erskine May. Question will be if there's a majority for that. If there isn't, that's proof positive that the WA was never going to pass and Bercow's call was the right one.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

sturginho wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
If it's looking like no-deal, Bercow will accept cosmetic changes.
In his statement he did mention the fact that the second vote came with a promise to move a vote on no-deal and a vote on an extension. So I wonder if MV3 came with a promise to hold a second referendum, whether that would pass Bercow's test

Yes and I would be shocked...shocked I tell you if this happened.
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Mahoney
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Mahoney »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
Mahoney wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
Mahoney wrote:I think Bercow's on pretty dodgy constitutional ground here... yes, letter of the conventions and all that, but in the circumstances this is a highly political intervention. There has clearly been movement that offered some hope of it passing this time.
Really? What movement would that be? The first one went down by over 200 votes, the second by over 150, and the law of diminishing returns applies - the easiest MPs to move will have been the first ones, the later into the process you get the more you're trying to shift immovable objects.
The DUP have been muttering about perhaps changing, JRM has flirted with changing ("a bad deal is better than no Brexit") and would take some of the ERG with him. That's movement. May not be enough movement, but that's why I said some hope.
The DUP talked about being willing to change position if the government brought them into the negotiating room with the EU and some other ridiculous nonsense I can't be bothered to remember. But the EU have said negotiations are closed, so that's not movement. JRM has flirted with changing but a) the ERG themselves are splitting on this one and b) even if they all came across the government would still be over 100 votes short
Still movement - remember, you're the one implying there has been no movement.

For what it's worth I think that until now Parliament have not really believed that they were making the final decision, since May has given the impression that she would keep bringing it back until the last minute. With the votes last week, and May's declaration she'd look for a long extension if her deal was not accepted this week, the vote this week was looking like the first time that parliament were faced with a serious decision between the WA and perhaps not leaving at all, or not for a long time.

In those circumstances it would not have surprised me (or several substantially more knowledgeable commentators than me) if they'd lost their nerve at that point and passed it. Wouldn't have surprised me if they hadn't, either, mind.
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Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

I hate Tories:

James Cleverly, a Conservative, says if Bercow had made this ruling earlier, MPs might have realised that last week was their last chance to vote for the Brexit deal. They might have voted differently, he says.
Locked