Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

[my 2 cents]

America is f**ked

Economy/money comes first, that's what he's saying and he has 60% approval rating. Bonkers.

Do you think it is perfect storm of
- not understanding threat early enough
- healthcare system based on ability of patient to pay
- too much consideration of the economic impact of lockdown?

It seems like an ominous situation over there, that's for sure. But I guess it is here too. I can understand not understanding threat. It was so sudden

[backrow]

The press have obviously been bried that that may be 50% of the UK may have been infected atm.
BBC NEWS NOW

There is a suggestion this was a deliberate policy reagrding herd immunity.
If it works ...
Stay safe guys

Hey c69, just to let you know our PPE orders don’t seem to have gone up this week, and in fact we’ve been cutting them. This scared me at first , but then I found out 2 things
1. Our first waves of masks had gone out and been much appreciated, but being dental it’s obvious not the full hazmat PPe range
2. The full range is coming in bulk from other suppliers , so our stopgaps aren’t now needed.

It’s just weird being a small new cog in the machine and seeing conflicting stories of too much / too little.

Good luck anyways with it all

[fishfoodie]

America is f**ked

Economy/money comes first, that's what he's saying and he has 60% approval rating. Bonkers.

Do you think it is perfect storm of
- not understanding threat early enough
- healthcare system based on ability of patient to pay
- too much consideration of the economic impact of lockdown?

It seems like an ominous situation over there, that's for sure. But I guess it is here too. I can understand not understanding threat. It was so sudden

and because a significant portion of the population can't afford to, not work, & the same section, can't afford proper health care, or is scared to even try & access it, because they are undocumented; every time the lockdown is relaxed; there will be a flair up, as these invisible people come out of lockdown, & start new phases of the outbreak.

[Uncle Fester]

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/stat ... 46050?s=20

Tucker Carlson with a change of heart on the severity of this thing. The split in americans is pretty worrying. FWIW I think if he handles this seriously I think he's a shoe in to get re-elected.

Must have been so tempting to interrupt that diatribe but he held out and let him hang himself. Impressive stuff.

[Nolanator]

C69, have you heard anything about issues with oxygen production? A medic mate of mine told me that its a big problem in Italy, with hospital requirements massively exceeding Italy's production capacity.

Anecdotally, we couldn't get any gas deliveries in the last week or so before we shut down. Hospitals being prioritised. Couldn't get any gloves either.

[goeagles]

America is f**ked

Economy/money comes first, that's what he's saying and he has 60% approval rating. Bonkers.

Do you think it is perfect storm of
- not understanding threat early enough
- healthcare system based on ability of patient to pay
- too much consideration of the economic impact of lockdown?

It seems like an ominous situation over there, that's for sure. But I guess it is here too. I can understand not understanding threat. It was so sudden

1 and 3, yes. 2, no. No one is being denied care here for the inability to pay.

[Uncle Fester]

C69, have you heard anything about issues with oxygen production? A medic mate of mine told me that its a big problem in Italy, with hospital requirements massively exceeding Italy's production capacity.

Anecdotally, we couldn't get any gas deliveries in the last week or so before we shut down. Hospitals being prioritised. Couldn't get any gloves either.

The plants that make it are capital intensive and you can't ramp up production at the drop off a hat. Demands are increasing by factors of 10-20. You can't have that much spare capacity in the system in "peacetime" and still make ends meet.

[Nolanator]

C69, have you heard anything about issues with oxygen production? A medic mate of mine told me that its a big problem in Italy, with hospital requirements massively exceeding Italy's production capacity.

Anecdotally, we couldn't get any gas deliveries in the last week or so before we shut down. Hospitals being prioritised. Couldn't get any gloves either.

The plants that make it are capital intensive and you can't ramp up production at the drop off a hat. Demands are increasing by factors of 10-20. You can't have that much spare capacity in the system in "peacetime" and still make ends meet.

Hopefully the demand can be met.

[my 2 cents]

America is f**ked

Economy/money comes first, that's what he's saying and he has 60% approval rating. Bonkers.

Do you think it is perfect storm of
- not understanding threat early enough
- healthcare system based on ability of patient to pay
- too much consideration of the economic impact of lockdown?

It seems like an ominous situation over there, that's for sure. But I guess it is here too. I can understand not understanding threat. It was so sudden

1 and 3, yes. 2, no. No one is being denied care here for the inability to pay.

Thats good to hear on 2. Best of luck over there btw

[Uncle Fester]

C69, have you heard anything about issues with oxygen production? A medic mate of mine told me that its a big problem in Italy, with hospital requirements massively exceeding Italy's production capacity.

Anecdotally, we couldn't get any gas deliveries in the last week or so before we shut down. Hospitals being prioritised. Couldn't get any gloves either.

The plants that make it are capital intensive and you can't ramp up production at the drop off a hat. Demands are increasing by factors of 10-20. You can't have that much spare capacity in the system in "peacetime" and still make ends meet.

Hopefully the demand can be met.

Yes, I'm hoping that too.

[massive_field_goal]

Lockdown enforcement in India:

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1 ... 4525003779

[goeagles]

Thats good to hear on 2. Best of luck over there btw

Cheers. I'm preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. Colorado seems to be one of the better places to be here but it still could get rough. Glad I don't live in NYC.

[camroc1]

C69, have you heard anything about issues with oxygen production? A medic mate of mine told me that its a big problem in Italy, with hospital requirements massively exceeding Italy's production capacity.

Anecdotally, we couldn't get any gas deliveries in the last week or so before we shut down. Hospitals being prioritised. Couldn't get any gloves either.

The plants that make it are capital intensive and you can't ramp up production at the drop off a hat. Demands are increasing by factors of 10-20. You can't have that much spare capacity in the system in "peacetime" and still make ends meet.

Will there be a problem in Ireland, Fester ?

[New guy]

The press have obviously been bried that that may be 50% of the UK may have been infected atm.
BBC NEWS NOW

There is a suggestion this was a deliberate policy reagrding herd immunity.
If it works ...
Stay safe guys

50% sounds way too high, there aren't enough people showing symptoms? Unless the virus isn't that dangerous after all which I very much doubt.

[MrJonno]

The press have obviously been bried that that may be 50% of the UK may have been infected atm.
BBC NEWS NOW

There is a suggestion this was a deliberate policy reagrding herd immunity.
If it works ...
Stay safe guys

50% sounds way too high, there aren't enough people showing symptoms? Unless the virus isn't that dangerous after all which I very much doubt.

My niece is a medical student and went home a couple of weeks ago for the weekend then started displaying symptoms and called the hospital she had been training in, turns out a patient tested positive and they tested 10 of my nieces classmates none of whom showed symptoms. 9 were positive. Who knows what the real numbers are. My brothers family nearly went nuts but I think self quarantine ends in 2 days.... for what that's worth

[tafano]

I’m no math expert, nor a virologist, so I won’t draw conclusions or theories.

I’ve taken data from the Italian institute of statistics: flu and pneumonia death toll for the year 2014 was 9413.

One month since the first death and we are already near 7000 Covid related casualties, in 3/4 days
2014 will be surpassed.

So in 35 days here in Italy this single virus killed as many as all the
respiratory sistem’s viruses and bacteriae have in 365.

[Bindi]

Our research lab has been asked to step up by doing COVID-19 qPCR tests if needed. Everyone immediately volunteered. Hopefully that’s a pointer to massively expanded testing.

[Brian9848]

Well, here in Manhattan, I'm pretty sure that I've already had it. Had a dry cough, no fever, and also a perisitent sneeze but without any nasal congestion at all. Of course, no way I could get a test, but was informed by doctor I probably just had a common cold, as sneezing and no fever suggested that I likely hadn't Covid-19. Then one evening was slammed..fatigue, a little bleary as if in the very early stages of the onset of a migraine. Slept for 14 hrs.. and then was fine. Sneeze disappeared, still a slight cough. But what convinced me was that I actually had it was reading a NY Times article on Anosmia revealing that such a loss of smell was indicatve of Covid-19. I had lost all sense of smell. I couldn't smell indian spices, vinegar, bleach, or anything I had been using in my apt. Still can't smell anything.

Am now awaiting release and availability of antibody test that will show I have immunity, so I can actually do some good for a change. Nobody here was practising social distancing with any real consistency until last weekend.

[eldanielfire]

Rita Panahi
@RitaPanahi
·
3h
56% of all U.S. coronavirus cases are coming from NYC metro area & around 60% of all new cases in the US are from NYC metro area. Yikes.

[Anonymous 1]

America is f**ked

Economy/money comes first, that's what he's saying and he has 60% approval rating. Bonkers.

Do you think it is perfect storm of
- not understanding threat early enough
- healthcare system based on ability of patient to pay
- too much consideration of the economic impact of lockdown?

It seems like an ominous situation over there, that's for sure. But I guess it is here too. I can understand not understanding threat. It was so sudden

1 and 3, yes. 2, no. No one is being denied care here for the inability to pay.

Maybe not being denied care but are they being given the care and still saddled with a bill they can't pay. If so that would put even more people off seeking care.

On The Frontlines Of COVID-19 With No Health Insurance

Even before the appearance of the coronavirus, a study by the Federal Reserve found that one-fourth of American adults skipped necessary medical care in 2018 because they were unable to afford the cost. The Federal Reserve said 40% of Americans in 2018 couldn’t cover a $400 emergency with cash, savings or a credit-card charge that they could quickly pay off.

It makes little sense from an economic or public health standpoint for society to create conditions that discourage workers from seeking treatment for COVID-19 due to lack of ability to pay.

Time reported Friday that a Massachusetts woman, Danni Askini, was charged $34,927.43 by a Massachusetts hospital for treatment for COVID-19. She was in-between jobs and has applied for Medicaid to retroactively cover her medical bills.

The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates the average cost of COVID-19 treatment for someone with employer insurance ranges from $9,763 to $20,292. Workers with insurance generally pay a deductible ranging from $1,000 to $6,000
https://www.forbes.com/sites/patriciagb ... 0e00e92570

[massive_field_goal]

This is why the US is f*cked. Despite all illusions, the country is running on fumes and religious hope.

[goeagles]

That might apply to many scenarios, but I think it's at worst neutral here in terms of combating the virus and potentially a positive. Given the serious overload of the health care system from the serious cases of COVID-19, people should not be seeking treatment for COVID-19 unless they are suffering the more serious symptoms like significant shortness of breath. People seek over-treatment all the time and even more so when it's free at the point of service. Just look at how many people ask for antibiotics, and sometimes get them prescribed (!), for viral infections. Having a deterrent to seeking treatment might be quite bad in some scenarios but good in certain scenarios. This is one of the good times as it reduces the burden on our health care system at a time it is being overloaded. No one, or very few people, will not seek treatment due to cost after the fact when they can't breathe. They're going to seek treatment at that point basically no matter what. If you want to talk about the ethics of that, it's another discussion but it's not something that is going to radically burden our health care system and make things much worse here.

[goeagles]

Also, we have a lot of problems, but you guys make it out like our health care system is 3rd world, which is decidedly not the case. It's horrendously expensive, but it's also one of the best in the world. Most studies you see ranking us low in the OECD are due to cost, not due to the level of care. Take, for example, this graphic:

[sonic_attack]

Trump is going to chuck his population under the bus isn't he.

[DragsterDriver]

Also, we have a lot of problems, but you guys make it out like our health care system is 3rd world, which is decidedly not the case. It's horrendously expensive, but it's also one of the best in the world. Most studies you see ranking us low in the OECD are due to cost, not due to the level of care. Take, for example, this graphic:

With all due respect Ferrari make a great car but not all Italians get to drive one.

[DragsterDriver]

I reckon in 3 weeks time we're going to start getting the antibody tests back in the UK and realise that everyone here got coronavirus back in late December/early January, that the disease is 10 times more virulent and 10 times less deadly than we expected, and that this lockdown was a giant waste of everyone's time.

Then what explains what we've seen in northern Italy?

That we have some corona immunity by always having colds? And yes I know this may well be complete bollox.

If you can get it with no fever then I may well have had it, who knows.

[marcus1]

Here's a couple of reader's comments about a Washington Post article about how the virus will alter the US - (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ts-wrapper

"I fear America is too collectively undisciplined to undergo several rounds of social distancing. If the South Beach revelers* are any indication, we are truly doomed."........

and one of the replies:

"And where, pray tell, do you think they inherited that lack of discipline from?
Couldn't have been the last 40 years of me first, cut-my-taxes, every-man-for-himself, bootstrap-pulling-up-by, winners-and-losers, divisive rhetoric coming from our "leaders" - political, corporate, social, and familial? Nah, no way.

Anyone pointing a generational finger needs to have a good, hard look in the mirror. "

Unfortunately, sums it up nicely.

* - https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/18/get-coro ... -12421192/

[AnkleTap]

#YOLO

[AND-y]

HH this moronic post, ffs people who link together working in the field don't tell the media obviously

Yes, overwhelmed they may be, but if hospital staff in London were 'dropping like flies' I'm sure we'd be hearing about it from numerous sources. That day may well come, but it hasn't arrived yet.

I am not being party political and have no agenda and have been impressed at times by the govt.
I just want to give a view from the front line as I work in Ventilation and Critical care

Thanks man, all the best.

[Double]

I reckon in 3 weeks time we're going to start getting the antibody tests back in the UK and realise that everyone here got coronavirus back in late December/early January, that the disease is 10 times more virulent and 10 times less deadly than we expected, and that this lockdown was a giant waste of everyone's time.

Why did nobody die of it in December then?

Lots of people died in December. Pneumonia complications of underlying conditions is one of the most common killers of elderly and inform people.

[Double]

I reckon in 3 weeks time we're going to start getting the antibody tests back in the UK and realise that everyone here got coronavirus back in late December/early January, that the disease is 10 times more virulent and 10 times less deadly than we expected, and that this lockdown was a giant waste of everyone's time.

Then what explains what we've seen in northern Italy?

That we have some corona immunity by always having colds? And yes I know this may well be complete bollox.

If you can get it with no fever then I may well have had it, who knows.

This is obviously complete speculation, but my thinking is that perhaps the patient load of dealing with someone presumed having coronavirus is much greater than for an elderly person with pneumonia. If every Covid patient needs isolation conditions, PPE for carers, further measures than usual - what would look like a middling flu season to people in December, unaware of the virus, suddenly becomes a healthcare nightmare.

It's also looking like exposure to pollution could be a massive contributor to severe reaction, and Northern Italy is one of the most polluted places in Europe. Most other polluted places in Europe are cities where the elderly population is much lower.

For the record, I'm not saying that the lockdown should be ended, just that I think this is how it will turn out.

[Lobby]

I reckon in 3 weeks time we're going to start getting the antibody tests back in the UK and realise that everyone here got coronavirus back in late December/early January, that the disease is 10 times more virulent and 10 times less deadly than we expected, and that this lockdown was a giant waste of everyone's time.

Why did nobody die of it in December then?

Lots of people died in December. Pneumonia complications of underlying conditions is one of the most common killers of elderly and inform people.

A comment from another site:

The estimated deaths for infected cases (as distinct from confirmed cases) is estimated as 0.5% to 1.0% in the recently released SAGE document dated 2nd March.

For 50% of the population to have been infected one would expect at least 150,000 additional deaths for the UK as a whole to show up over a couple of months in the statistics, if the SAGE estimates are correct. This would be very obvious. The January 2020 deaths for England and Wales were 56,706 whereas those for Jan 2019 were 53,910 so the additional deaths don't seem to show up in January (even though the numbers don't include Scotland and N. Ireland). The figures for February haven't yet been published but if, say, the number of deaths for the month had, say, doubled someone would probably have noticed.

So either the theory is wrong, or the number of cases circulating was very low indeed, or the SAGE estimate of 0.5% to 1.0% is out by a significant order of magnitude.

If the virus has been in circulation for months, why are seeing lots of additional deaths now, and none or very few before March?

[Double]

And I'll join the hordes of people with anecdotes about having it before it was reportedly here. For me back in late December, had awful muscle aches, constant headache. Symptoms receded for a day or two, long enough for me to return home from my parents. Then was just sat on my sofa and absolutely floored by a sudden fever and difficulty breathing. Spent a week in bed, spent another two weeks feeling a bit short of breath. Had to sleep on a towel because of the night sweats.

I'd convinced myself at the time that it was a normal flu followed by some viral pneumonia - which it may yet have been - but the weirdest thing was the lack of flu symptoms. I've had proper flu more than once before and every time I've shit myself blind This time, no gastro symptoms to speak of.

[Double]

I reckon in 3 weeks time we're going to start getting the antibody tests back in the UK and realise that everyone here got coronavirus back in late December/early January, that the disease is 10 times more virulent and 10 times less deadly than we expected, and that this lockdown was a giant waste of everyone's time.

Why did nobody die of it in December then?

Lots of people died in December. Pneumonia complications of underlying conditions is one of the most common killers of elderly and inform people.

A comment from another site:

The estimated deaths for infected cases (as distinct from confirmed cases) is estimated as 0.5% to 1.0% in the recently released SAGE document dated 2nd March.

For 50% of the population to have been infected one would expect at least 150,000 additional deaths for the UK as a whole to show up over a couple of months in the statistics, if the SAGE estimates are correct. This would be very obvious. The January 2020 deaths for England and Wales were 56,706 whereas those for Jan 2019 were 53,910 so the additional deaths don't seem to show up in January (even though the numbers don't include Scotland and N. Ireland). The figures for February haven't yet been published but if, say, the number of deaths for the month had, say, doubled someone would probably have noticed.

So either the theory is wrong, or the number of cases circulating was very low indeed, or the SAGE estimate of 0.5% to 1.0% is out by a significant order of magnitude.

If the virus has been in circulation for months, why are seeing lots of additional deaths now, and none or very few before March?

In that case the estimated lethality/rate of serious cases would be wrong, because it's based on our presumption of who has the illness. Instead, the mortality rate would be 10 or more times lower than we've expected.

We're strictly not seeing excess deaths now - the UK's overall mortality rate has remained constant since about November, and actually fairly low for winter months.

[robmatic]

Great, now everybody who had a cold/flu during the regular winter flu season has now had 'corona'.

But even now when symptomatic people are presenting to hospitals and getting tested only a minority actually have it.

[Double]

Worth bearing in mind that the usual hospital test will only show whether you're in the midst of it, it won't show if you've already been exposed to it in the past.

[message #2527204]

I wonder how they conduct the antibody tests?
It would be nice if everyone had one, but what would be the psychological effect?
Those with antibody can come out of lockdown - those without? What would they do? Panic? Try and get infected? Sit at home forever?

[ScarfaceClaw]

I wonder how they conduct the antibody tests?
It would be nice if everyone had one, but what would be the psychological effect?
Those with antibody can come out of lockdown - those without? What would they do? Panic? Try and get infected? Sit at home forever?

That’ll be very tough on those who can’t come out of lockdown but have no jobs or money or food. The haves and have nots is going to be the biggest factor when this starts to wind down.

[Mick Mannock]

Are there figures to show which London boroughs populations have most cases.?

Actually, forget that as they are likely skewed by the presence of large hospitals in some boroughs

[message #2527204]

That might apply to many scenarios, but I think it's at worst neutral here in terms of combating the virus and potentially a positive. Given the serious overload of the health care system from the serious cases of COVID-19, people should not be seeking treatment for COVID-19 unless they are suffering the more serious symptoms like significant shortness of breath. People seek over-treatment all the time and even more so when it's free at the point of service. Just look at how many people ask for antibiotics, and sometimes get them prescribed (!), for viral infections. Having a deterrent to seeking treatment might be quite bad in some scenarios but good in certain scenarios. This is one of the good times as it reduces the burden on our health care system at a time it is being overloaded. No one, or very few people, will not seek treatment due to cost after the fact when they can't breathe. They're going to seek treatment at that point basically no matter what. If you want to talk about the ethics of that, it's another discussion but it's not something that is going to radically burden our health care system and make things much worse here.

There is no treatment.
People should stay away from doctors and hospitals unless they have severe symptoms, as they may transmit the virus even though they could get overt it with a week in bed..... Even if they can afford it. Hundreds of thousands of people turning up because they have a runny nose isn't what is needed at the moment.