Melbourne. Fvcked again. And again. And again.

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usermame
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by usermame »

towny wrote:
6.Jones wrote:It has to be said though that the majority of expert opinion is that the track we're on now is the right one.
Imo, Australia is, NZ is, Sweden is.

Not sure about the rest.
I'm not sure how those can all be on the same right track. The Swedish penchant for eugenics seems to have come to the fore.
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shanky
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

Farva wrote:
guy smiley wrote:In hat appears to be an awkward development for Muttonbirds in particular, NZ has announced stage three lockdown in Auckland and stage two nationwide. Apparently a household in Auckland has returned positive test results.


That’s a bit shit.
Should have gone to stage 4. Perhaps for the next 6 months. Need to go hard and early.
I’m only trying to save lives.
You’re just asking questions.
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jdogscoop
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by jdogscoop »

Some pretty average form from some Aucklanders packing supermarkets and jostling en masse tonight.

Stay at home world champs indeed.

In all seriousness, that's some average news Auckland (and NZ generally) and I sincerely hope cases don't blow up the way they did here.
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usermame
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by usermame »

Yeah, I've lost a bit of respect for my fellow citizens at both lockdowns. Sad.
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usermame
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by usermame »

Farva wrote:
guy smiley wrote:In hat appears to be an awkward development for Muttonbirds in particular, NZ has announced stage three lockdown in Auckland and stage two nationwide. Apparently a household in Auckland has returned positive test results.

That’s a bit shit.
Should have gone to stage 4. Perhaps for the next 6 months. Need to go hard and early. I’m only trying to save lives.
Well as long as you don't think it's an overreaction and will sink the economy...
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shanky
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

usermame wrote:
Farva wrote:
guy smiley wrote:In hat appears to be an awkward development for Muttonbirds in particular, NZ has announced stage three lockdown in Auckland and stage two nationwide. Apparently a household in Auckland has returned positive test results.

That’s a bit shit.
Should have gone to stage 4. Perhaps for the next 6 months. Need to go hard and early. I’m only trying to save lives.
Well as long as you don't think it's an overreaction and will sink the economy...
We all appreciate the motivations behind your rearguard action

We probably shouldn’t question why you think you need to mount it.
towny
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

usermame wrote:
towny wrote:
6.Jones wrote:It has to be said though that the majority of expert opinion is that the track we're on now is the right one.
Imo, Australia is, NZ is, Sweden is.

Not sure about the rest.
I'm not sure how those can all be on the same right track. The Swedish penchant for eugenics seems to have come to the fore.
It’s obvious you don’t understand what Sweden is doing, nor the meaning of the word ‘eugenics’. But keep reading those shitty tabloids and getting the latest news from Shannon, the hairdresser.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by JPNZ »

jdogscoop wrote:Some pretty average form from some Aucklanders packing supermarkets and jostling en masse tonight.

Stay at home world champs indeed.

In all seriousness, that's some average news Auckland (and NZ generally) and I sincerely hope cases don't blow up the way they did here.
A good reality check for one imbecile poster ranting on at how good NZ response was.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by towny »

Muttonbird’s face when he saw that on tv.... :lol:
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by jambanja »

towny wrote:Muttonbird’s face when he saw that on tv.... :lol:
Has he been banned because ever since the announcement that we're changing levels again he's been absent?
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JPNZ
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by JPNZ »

jambanja wrote:
towny wrote:Muttonbird’s face when he saw that on tv.... :lol:
Has he been banned because ever since the announcement that we're changing levels again he's been absent?
God I hope so.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by eldanielfire »

Bindi wrote:There's 3 extremely promising vaccine candidates in phase III trials now (Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer) and one about to start (Novovax - this one is looking particularly good). Vaccines that make it to Phase III have a very high chance of succeeding.

Suppressing the virus until a vaccine is available is absolutely the right approach. Hurd immunity is insane in comparison (lots of dead people which also leads to massive mental health impacts in friends and family, lower antibody titre, so may not provide great resistance, unknown impacts of the disease for those who do overcome it - the list goes on).
Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people. And saying on just suppress until a vaccine is discovered is a double edged sword. It assumes the vaccine will work perfectly or won't have serious side effects. That ignores both the short term and long term economic impacts. Short to medium term the negatives of a damaged economy and fewer people in work or work of quality can have serious health and death implications themselves. Vaccines should be a goal, but how deaths overall are minimalised is and was very open to debate.

Then there is the long or very long term implications which possibly can't be measured. A more limited economy means less investment a more successful economy can have, anything from poorer maintenance of various public infrastructure to delays in scientific breakthroughs. It can get very vague here, as i said unmeasurable, but the true impacts can never be truely quantified.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Bindi »

eldanielfire wrote:
Bindi wrote:There's 3 extremely promising vaccine candidates in phase III trials now (Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer) and one about to start (Novovax - this one is looking particularly good). Vaccines that make it to Phase III have a very high chance of succeeding.

Suppressing the virus until a vaccine is available is absolutely the right approach. Hurd immunity is insane in comparison (lots of dead people which also leads to massive mental health impacts in friends and family, lower antibody titre, so may not provide great resistance, unknown impacts of the disease for those who do overcome it - the list goes on).
Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people. And saying on just suppress until a vaccine is discovered is a double edged sword. It assumes the vaccine will work perfectly or won't have serious side effects. That ignores both the short term and long term economic impacts. Short to medium term the negatives of a damaged economy and fewer people in work or work of quality can have serious health and death implications themselves. Vaccines should be a goal, but how deaths overall are minimalised is and was very open to debate.

Then there is the long or very long term implications which possibly can't be measured. A more limited economy means less investment a more successful economy can have, anything from poorer maintenance of various public infrastructure to delays in scientific breakthroughs. It can get very vague here, as i said unmeasurable, but the true impacts can never be truely quantified.
We already know the major vaccine contenders don’t have common serious side effects. Rarer ones will come out on phase 3. The big one is antibody-dependent enhancement, and there’s no evidence of that to date (and it would likely have been identified by now). Also, vaccines don’t work ‘perfectly’; for a lot of vaccines, vaccinated people can still get the disease. The vaccines are still successful as they reduce the rate of transmission to the point where the disease becomes a background threat. The cholera vaccine is an excellent example of this - 85% effectiveness in the 1st year and dropping below 50% after the second year. Cholera is however rare in the developed world.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Flockwitt »

Aye. But it is never simple. There is a bunch of other developments that could help. Quick tests. Understanding why some people are hammered by the virus while others don’t even know they’ve got it. Better techniques for intensive care. The longer community spread is limited the better the odds of effectively dealing with outbreaks/being able to do activities are.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Enzedder »

JPNZ wrote:
jambanja wrote:
towny wrote:Muttonbird’s face when he saw that on tv.... :lol:
Has he been banned because ever since the announcement that we're changing levels again he's been absent?
God I hope so.

Nope - he's hiding in his bedroom sobbing his heart out. Eug has gone a bit quiet too.
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jdogscoop
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by jdogscoop »

Enzedder wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
jambanja wrote:
towny wrote:Muttonbird’s face when he saw that on tv.... :lol:
Has he been banned because ever since the announcement that we're changing levels again he's been absent?
God I hope so.

Nope - he's hiding in his bedroom sobbing his heart out. Eug has gone a bit quiet too.
In an ironic twist, the South Auckland family of 4 with COVID-19 is in fact the Muttonbirds tribe.

He's a bit preoccupied at the moment.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

He may well be a commie and bogan, cane-toad fvckwit to boot

But I, for one, am very glad to have Bindi sharing his specialist knowledge with us

Thanks mate :thumbup:
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Bindi »

shanky wrote:He may well be a commie and bogan, cane-toad fvckwit to boot

But I, for one, am very glad to have Bindi sharing his specialist knowledge with us

Thanks mate :thumbup:
:thumbup:

Here’s a good take on Putin’s vaccine:


https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... an-vaccine

Also worth noting plenty of people have antibodies against adenoviruses, so the vaccine may not be that effective (for this reason Oxford used a chimp adenovirus)
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by JPNZ »

Not good news today
Victoria has recorded 21 deaths, a new high in the state's daily death toll, and 410 new cases. The state's coronavirus count would have to drop to fewer than 20 cases a day before experts say it could be safe to start easing restrictions, but this milestone may not be too far away.
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shanky
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

Bindi wrote:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... an-vaccine

Also worth noting plenty of people have antibodies against adenoviruses, so the vaccine may not be that effective (for this reason Oxford used a chimp adenovirus)
Wow! That's pretty damning.

Can't imagine Trump ever declaring 'victory' like that, or because of that...

:uhoh:
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

eldanielfire wrote:
Bindi wrote:There's 3 extremely promising vaccine candidates in phase III trials now (Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer) and one about to start (Novovax - this one is looking particularly good). Vaccines that make it to Phase III have a very high chance of succeeding.

Suppressing the virus until a vaccine is available is absolutely the right approach. Hurd immunity is insane in comparison (lots of dead people which also leads to massive mental health impacts in friends and family, lower antibody titre, so may not provide great resistance, unknown impacts of the disease for those who do overcome it - the list goes on).
Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people. And saying on just suppress until a vaccine is discovered is a double edged sword. It assumes the vaccine will work perfectly or won't have serious side effects. That ignores both the short term and long term economic impacts. Short to medium term the negatives of a damaged economy and fewer people in work or work of quality can have serious health and death implications themselves. Vaccines should be a goal, but how deaths overall are minimalised is and was very open to debate.

Then there is the long or very long term implications which possibly can't be measured. A more limited economy means less investment a more successful economy can have, anything from poorer maintenance of various public infrastructure to delays in scientific breakthroughs. It can get very vague here, as i said unmeasurable, but the true impacts can never be truely quantified.

I think there is one person on here that would violently disagree with you. He has the facts to prove you wrong.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by UncleFB »

Ali's Choice wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.
Yep, I'm always bemused when I see this approach suggested yet it hasn't been implemented anywhere.

I'm actually interested to her eldaniel's response as I'm sure there are some theories on how to do it out there amonst certain communities - but I haven't actually seen this filter through to the places I frequent (just rugby forums basically :lol: ).
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Except you can't with covid. Immunity lasts 2 to 3 months. You can't achieve herd immunity in a practical sense by just letting the virus go through the population.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

Sensible Stephen wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Except you can't with covid. Immunity lasts 2 to 3 months. You can't achieve herd immunity in a practical sense by just letting the virus go through the population.
Well, actually you can, because the virus strains naturally evolve to less-lethal variants.

But it’s a pretty big price to pay to get there.
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Sensible Stephen
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

shanky wrote:
Sensible Stephen wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Except you can't with covid. Immunity lasts 2 to 3 months. You can't achieve herd immunity in a practical sense by just letting the virus go through the population.
Well, actually you can, because the virus strains naturally evolve to less-lethal variants.

But it’s a pretty big price to pay to get there.
From what I have read that is not true. It undergoes about two genome changes a month. There's nothing showing that it will nesscarily become less lethal each time.

Regardless, it's not herd immunity as you are still catching the virus each time. If your lucky it's a less lethal version.
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shanky
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

I’ll defer to superior knowledge.

My understanding is that a virus that kills its host before the host can pass it on, isn’t a very successful virus - so therefore, those strains get selected out and the more moderate ones survive. As that process continues, and the host takes preventative or curative measures, then more of the innocuous variants tend to get the upper hand.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

shanky wrote:I’ll defer to superior knowledge.

My understanding is that a virus that kills its host before the host can pass it on, isn’t a very successful virus - so therefore, those strains get selected out and the more moderate ones survive. As that process continues, and the host takes preventative or curative measures, then more of the innocuous variants tend to get the upper hand.
That's my understanding too, but mutations are random. No reason a localised breakout of a 10% death rate version couldn't happen.
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shanky
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

OK
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Sensible Stephen
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Sensible Stephen »

shanky wrote:OK
I might be talking shit. Just what I have read. If Bindi disagrees then I have got it wrong.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by shanky »

Sensible Stephen wrote:
shanky wrote:OK
I might be talking shit. Just what I have read. If Bindi disagrees then I have got it wrong.
All hail Bindi! Our beloved virologist overlord!

:)
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by guy smiley »

shanky wrote:
Sensible Stephen wrote:
shanky wrote:OK
I might be talking shit. Just what I have read. If Bindi disagrees then I have got it wrong.
All hail Bindi! Our beloved virologist overlord!

:)
Casting an intellectual shadow to rival that of Clive Palmer.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.


This is right up there with a request to show where there has been a successful Covid-19 vaccine program. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed.


Typical binary thinking. Either on or off. No ability to have a nuanced dialogue to explore ideas further. Simply try and shut it down.


And by the way, I don't think he is boasting.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.


This is right up there with a request to show where there has been a successful Covid-19 vaccine program. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed.


Typical binary thinking. Either on or off. No ability to have a nuanced dialogue to explore ideas further. Simply try and shut it down.


And by the way, I don't think he is boasting.
So using this rationale why don't we chat about successfully eradicating covid-19 without having any impact on the economy? Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed. Let's chat about full eradication without having any impact on jobs or the economy.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by 6.Jones »

Sensible Stephen wrote:
shanky wrote:
Sensible Stephen wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Except you can't with covid. Immunity lasts 2 to 3 months. You can't achieve herd immunity in a practical sense by just letting the virus go through the population.
Well, actually you can, because the virus strains naturally evolve to less-lethal variants.

But it’s a pretty big price to pay to get there.
From what I have read that is not true. It undergoes about two genome changes a month. There's nothing showing that it will nesscarily become less lethal each time.

Regardless, it's not herd immunity as you are still catching the virus each time. If your lucky it's a less lethal version.
Entropy suggest it should become less lethal, since virulence is an undesirable trait. There are always exceptions. Myxomatosis.

Edit: I just looked up myxomatosis. It actually evolved to become *less* lethal, thus killing more rabbits.
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6.Jones
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by 6.Jones »

Ali's Choice wrote:So using this rationale why don't we chat about successfully eradicating covid-19 without having any impact on the economy? Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed. Let's chat about full eradication without having any impact on jobs or the economy.
It's possible the economy will emerge stronger. Not least because businesses learn to use the network more efficiently. That could be a step change in how we do business over the coming decades.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.


This is right up there with a request to show where there has been a successful Covid-19 vaccine program. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed.


Typical binary thinking. Either on or off. No ability to have a nuanced dialogue to explore ideas further. Simply try and shut it down.


And by the way, I don't think he is boasting.
So using this rationale why don't we chat about successfully eradicating covid-19 without having any impact on the economy? Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed. Let's chat about full eradication without having any impact on jobs or the economy.

So a simple black or white proposition then? Full eradication without any impact on jobs or the economy.

I am happy to start there if you are prepared to engage in meaningful dialogue? Just warning you that what might happen is we may end up exploring other meaningful ideas as part of our journey. Some of those ideas may have merit, some may not.
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Ellafan »

Watching the news this evening, it was sad, but not unpredictable, that the Victorian pollies are ducking and weaving in their efforts to not answer questions that might see them bearing some responsibility for the hotel cock-up.

Here's a prediction - the emergency response commissioner will be left to take one for the team, while those really responsible smugly distance themselves from him.

In other news, the Tangara school outbreak is the result of the girls being sent on an opus dei religious retreat.

Image
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by UncleFB »

Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.


This is right up there with a request to show where there has been a successful Covid-19 vaccine program. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed.


Typical binary thinking. Either on or off. No ability to have a nuanced dialogue to explore ideas further. Simply try and shut it down.


And by the way, I don't think he is boasting.
You sound like a Youtube/Facebook free speech, sovereign citizen, conspiracy theory etc nut with sentences like these.
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Clogs
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Re: Melbourne. Fvcked.

Post by Clogs »

UncleFB wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Actually you can aim for herd immunity and have a policy that excludes the elderly from that to ensure minimal dead people.
Where has this been done successfully? Since you're boasting about such a policy I just thought it would be nice to know which country or jurisdiction you are talking up.


This is right up there with a request to show where there has been a successful Covid-19 vaccine program. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean the idea should be discounted or discussed.


Typical binary thinking. Either on or off. No ability to have a nuanced dialogue to explore ideas further. Simply try and shut it down.


And by the way, I don't think he is boasting.
You sound like a Youtube/Facebook free speech, sovereign citizen, conspiracy theory etc nut with sentences like these.
Yes and you sound like a snowflake, cancel culture shrieking ultra left Marxist with a claim like that.

Fortunately we are both wise enough to know how baseless and unintelligent those labels are.
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