CrazyIslander wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:05 pm
I wonder if China or Russia can handle being a superpower..ie military interference in conflicts around the world. Russia has yet to do anything of substance in Armenia Azerbaijan conflict. Have yet to see China go it alone anywhere. I'm thinking they're more inclined to back the strong than any moral stance.
The situation in the Armenian-Azeri conflict is a complicated one for Russia. Both countries are ex Soviet Union Republics and as such, from Putin's perspective, part of what should be Russia's sphere of influence, not to say vassal countries. As such, they don't want to side openly with one country rather than with the other. Azerbaijan has Baku and all the gas too, so they do matter dearly to Russia.
Now, Russia's obvious concern is Turkey's involvement, as Erdogan, emboldened by Trump's passivity (not to say quiet consent) is pushing for the new Ottoman Empire or at least to re-establish Turkey dominance in that world, starting obviously with their Turkomen brothers. Beside the obvious power struggle between the two countries, there is also the concern about djihad with Turkey an active sponsor of Islamist djihad in Syria and Iraq and using now that weapon (though you could also call them mercenaries) in Azerbadjian. Russia has had to deal with radicalisation of Islam, first in Afghanistan (where American support allowed the Taliban to defeat the Soviet army) and then in Chechnya for example where the traditional mystic and more tolerant Sufi Islam was overrun by Salfism extremism as part of the struggle against the Russian central power. For sure Putin doesn't want this to happen in Azerbadjian so he will have to act.
He has already acted preventively by helping upgrading Armenian armament but Armenia started from so far that they haven't caught up with Azerbadjian who now use sophisticated Turk weapons including drones.
Here comes Iran who are also keen to prevent Turkish influence spreading in what they consider as their influence zone. Iran have always had strong ties with the Armenian and they are getting involved to support the country. Russia, obviously, is currently aligned with Iran in the Middle East, so they may tolerate that interference as way of check and balances.
Enters France who have traditionally strong ties with Christian Armenia (a lot of the Armenian diaspora has moved to France and they have a lot of influence with prominent artists, intellectuals and politicians). Right now, France are in open conflict with Turkey (not militarily yet), with clashes in Lybia where France is trying to prevent Turkish influence to spread too far), in the Cyprus and Greek waters where France is trying to get the European Union to react collectively and protect the EU borders against Turkey's ambition and now in Armenia.
This is to say that Putin may have asserted that what will put Russia in the strongest position here is not to get openly involved but act as the peace makers in the region. France has actually already called for EU cooperation with Putin on the matter.
France is part of the Minsk group, together with Russia and the US, who have been assigned a long time ago with finding a solution for this region. Absent the USA, this leaves France and Russia to work out something.
This is a very interesting- and worrying - development as you have two NATO allies in open conflict (confirming Macron's diagnosis that NATO is in a state of cerebral death). One of these NATO ally is openly sponsoring terrorism and djihadism, the other one is having to work closely with Russia. This is all bonus for Putin as American influence is disappearing slowly from the region and a time of reckoning for Europe who will have to agree on common foreign and defense policy or risk being at the mercy of two rising powers, waking up from the ashes of their previous empires. One shouldn't forget in particular that Turkey is the second most powerful military power in NATO (in terms of conventional weapons).
This is actually quite relevant to this thread as what is happening in the Middle East, Asia and Europe is a direct consequence of Trump's foreign policies and his friendship with Erdogan in particular (let's not forget the sacrifice of the Kurds here, as an horrible example of Trump's cynism and lack of consideration for other people).
