The Australian Politics Thread

[Ali's Choice]

Lots of chat around today about a possible LNP de-merge in QLD after yet another state election loss. The LNP do struggle in the bush, hence why KAP, PHON and independents have done quite well in the bush over the past decade. Rightly or wrongly the LNP is considered a creature of the SE corner. You'd have to think that the National Party running in their own right would have more chance against KAP.

[Ellafan]

Some key takeaways from the QLD election;

- Rupert Murdoch's power to influence is waning. All the major newspapers in QLD are owned by News Ltd, they all waged war on Palaszcuk and despite this the ALP's vote increased.

Did you not read that paper from Michael Kirby about the reverse effect of media disparagement campaigns, that I gave you the link to?

[Ali's Choice]

Some key takeaways from the QLD election;

- Rupert Murdoch's power to influence is waning. All the major newspapers in QLD are owned by News Ltd, they all waged war on Palaszcuk and despite this the ALP's vote increased.

Did you not read that paper from Michael Kirby about the reverse effect of media disparagement campaigns, that I gave you the link to?

No I didn't. But Rupert Murdoch wouldn't be the most powerful person in Australia if the "reverse effect of media disparagement" was a thing, and Clive Palmer's $60m spend at the last Federal election wouldn't have had such a strong impact if advertising didn't work. Palmer attempted an almost identical campaign for this QLD election and it fell flat, but with more creativity and a new shtick (people are over his death tax lies) I expect he'll strongly influence the next Federal election again.

[Ali's Choice]

One of the big stories of the QLD election is the decline of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party. Their vote fell by 7%, and almost 5% of this went directly to the ALP.

Minor party vote dries up amid Palmer and One Nation decline
Matt Dennien
By Matt Dennien
November 1, 2020 — 7.17pm

Minor parties have failed to make a mark on the ongoing Queensland election vote count despite a record number of entrants into the contest, with senior Labor figures hailing the collapse of One Nation and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party.

And while the result could be seen as a pandemic-era shift in support behind the known quantities of incumbent governments, MPs and major parties, it also shows COVID-19 was far from the sole issue at play for voters, one academic says.

One Nation fielded candidates in all but three of the state's 93 seats - more than any other state election - but has seen its primary vote almost halve below 7 per cent and candidates disappear from the competitive position they held in a number of seats as recently as in 2017.

Federal Labor's shadow treasurer and most-senior Queensland member, Jim Chalmers, remained cautious the shift had not been permanent on Sunday but described the swing as "really satisfying".

He also described as "heartening" the fact Mr Palmer's his $4.7 million spoiler campaign - built around opening the border and death tax dis-information - had also "barely registered".

Mr Palmer's party, supported almost exclusively by his mining entity Mineralogy, had picked up just 0.57 per cent of the preliminary first preference count as of Sunday afternoon.

Labor had seen a statewide swing of 5 per cent on initial counting, with the LNP's primary vote also jumping 1.9 per cent. This represented a first preference share of 76 per cent among the two major parties, up from 69.12 at the 2017 poll.

University of Queensland political historian and researcher Chris Salisbury said Labor had been the larger beneficiary of the "quite extensive" One Nation collapse, picking up more of the preference share than the LNP.

"In just about every instance they've dropped to third [place] or worse," he said of One Nation's presence in all but its retained central Queensland seat of Mirani.

"[It] reinforces this impression that Hanson wasn't present or at least visible on the campaign."

Record number of parties square up amid a 'fracturing' political landscape
"It really leaves question marks about how the organisation is run and whether it can maintain the support that it has enjoyed in the past."

Dr Salisbury also pointed to the UAP as a twin example of voters returning to the major parties and incumbents.

"We have seen some of that turning back towards the majors in both those cases, it just seems in One Nation's case a lot of it has reverted back to Labor - or even switched to Labor - and underlines that these conditions have really influenced how this election has played out," he said.

"There might still be a future for parties like One Nation and this might just be a blip, but it will be interesting to see how the majors try to capitalise on this boost to their support."

On Saturday night, Senator Pauline Hanson's chief-of-staff, James Ashby, put the failure of the party in part down to a lack of media coverage in the regions.

The bump in support for Katter's Australian Party also played into the public falling in behind incumbent MPs - rather than simply parties of government - punctuated by the few exceptions where seats appear to have switched on the back of retiring MPs or long-running contests.

KAP has cemented its place as a major force in the state, shoring up the hold on its three northern seats with a small rise in its vote statewide to 2.6 per cent.

The Greens have also made a further incursion into South Brisbane - and emerged as highly competitive in two others - after seat-based swings occurring in the context of an overall drop in vote share of almost 1 per cent.

This result was also an example of the complexity of the vote and how it was playing out across the state, Dr Salisbury added.

"The [Greens] performance in Brisbane itself I think is indicative that the election wasn't in fact all about the pandemic - that there still were underlying currents and issues at play," he said.

[Ellafan]

Some key takeaways from the QLD election;

- Rupert Murdoch's power to influence is waning. All the major newspapers in QLD are owned by News Ltd, they all waged war on Palaszcuk and despite this the ALP's vote increased.

Did you not read that paper from Michael Kirby about the reverse effect of media disparagement campaigns, that I gave you the link to?

No I didn't. But Rupert Murdoch wouldn't be the most powerful person in Australia if the "reverse effect of media disparagement" was a thing, and Clive Palmer's $60m spend at the last Federal election wouldn't have had such a strong impact if advertising didn't work. Palmer attempted an almost identical campaign for this QLD election and it fell flat, but with more creativity and a new shtick (people are over his death tax lies) I expect he'll strongly influence the next Federal election again.

Obviously Rupert isn't that powerful - labour won in Qld. QED.

[Salient]

One of the big stories of the QLD election is the decline of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party. Their vote fell by 7%, and almost 5% of this went directly to the ALP.

I would read that with a grain of salt, generally in elections that are viewed as being close voters tend to return to the major parties. Much as I can hope One Nation will continue to implode, Pauline is making far too much money out of this.

Clive I think got viewed as a third tier Trump, and got hammered for it.

[shanky]

I’m happy that Palayuk won

I remember when I paid thousands in extra tax to help out Brisbane in the floods

I won’t have to pay that again anytime soon

Win/win

Back when you had flared slacks and ties as wide as bread plates, eh?

I bet you cut a mean rug to Donna Summer.

2011

[shanky]

I’m happy that Palayuk won

I remember when I paid thousands in extra tax to help out Brisbane in the floods

I won’t have to pay that again anytime soon

Win/win

Strange post. As a taxpayer I have no complaints that billions of tax payer's dollars are being spent rebuilding NSW after the Sydney bush-fires. I also have no problem with millions of tax payer's dollars being spent on worthwhile regional projects such as upgrading the North Sydney public pool

What about paying extra tax for those things.

For Wayne Swan’s electorate.

[MungoMan]

I’m happy that Palayuk won

I remember when I paid thousands in extra tax to help out Brisbane in the floods

I won’t have to pay that again anytime soon

Win/win

Strange post. As a taxpayer I have no complaints that billions of tax payer's dollars are being spent rebuilding NSW after the Sydney bush-fires. I also have no problem with millions of tax payer's dollars being spent on worthwhile regional projects such as upgrading the North Sydney public pool

What about paying extra tax for those things.

For Wayne Swan’s electorate.

shanky, I'm pretty sure the tax levee was convinced to your postcode. You must have upset someone powerful.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

As if Shanky pays that much tax

North shore welfare recipients

[Ellafan]

I’m happy that Palayuk won

I remember when I paid thousands in extra tax to help out Brisbane in the floods

I won’t have to pay that again anytime soon

Win/win

Back when you had flared slacks and ties as wide as bread plates, eh?

I bet you cut a mean rug to Donna Summer.

2011

You still followed disco in 2011?

[Salient]

So what does everything think of SlowMo's handling of the U.S Presidential race. Effectively has said Australia does not want to be involved in U.S shenanigans, which I think is the right stance to take ... unless our Cyber forces are up to the task

Believe SlowMo was caught out once before at a factory in Trumpland.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

So what does everything think of SlowMo's handling of the U.S Presidential race. Effectively has said Australia does not want to be involved in U.S shenanigans, which I think is the right stance to take ... unless our Cyber forces are up to the task

Believe SlowMo was caught out once before at a factory in Trumpland.

He's listening to his advisors - he's not normally shy about cozying up.

That usless pair of fat Cunts, Hockey and Christensen can't help themselves...

The former treasurer and ambassador to the US told Sydney’s 2GB radio on Thursday that there were “plenty of good reason” for Donald Trump and the Republican campaign team to challenge results – which are still being counted – through litigation.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... n-comeback

[Ellafan]

Does anyone else find it ironic that all the whining about postal votes comes from the Republicans in the US, and from labour in Oz?

[grievous]

Does anyone else find it ironic that all the whining about postal votes comes from the Republicans in the US, and from labour in Oz?

no

[6.Jones]

Does anyone else find it ironic that all the whining about postal votes comes from the Republicans in the US, and from labour in Oz?

Like rain, on your wedding day.

[Ellafan]

Does anyone else find it ironic that all the whining about postal votes comes from the Republicans in the US, and from labour in Oz?

Like rain, on your wedding day.

It seems to me to indicate which parties attract the stupid voters who can't organise themselves to put in a postal vote.

[Bindi]

4 Corners sounds rather interesting tonight. Government doing everything they can to stop it going ahead (so the content is clearly correct). Sexual harassment claims against ministers, apparently.

[grievous]

4 Corners sounds rather interesting tonight. Government doing everything they can to stop it going ahead (so the content is clearly correct). Sexual harassment claims against ministers, apparently.

Covers the bonking ban by Turnbull and it wasn't because of Barnaby.

[kiwigreg369]

4corners
@4corners
·
10m
#BREAKING. Turnbull warned Christian Porter over 'risk of compromise' after intimate behaviour with young female staffer: https://ab.co/3leCsps
@Milliganreports

@neighbour_s

Should be capable of defending himself.

[grievous]

That wasn't 4 corners best work

[6.Jones]

Does anyone else find it ironic that all the whining about postal votes comes from the Republicans in the US, and from labour in Oz?

Like rain, on your wedding day.

It seems to me to indicate which parties attract the stupid voters who can't organise themselves to put in a postal vote.

Ooh, interesting question. Is the ALP Australia's GOP?

[MungoMan]

Does anyone else find it ironic that all the whining about postal votes comes from the Republicans in the US, and from labour in Oz?

Like rain, on your wedding day.

It seems to me to indicate which parties attract the stupid voters who can't organise themselves to put in a postal vote.

Ooh, interesting question. Is the ALP Australia's GOP?

NT, pop. Hobart, had a recent election. Labor supposedly had concerns about the possibility of late postal voting (filling in the form after 6.00 pm election night).

Queensland, pop. 5.2 m, recently had a state election with more postal voting than usual because plague. Political party complaints re postal voting from Labor or any party at all = 3/5 of SFA.

[Ali's Choice]

I must have missed the ALP complaining about postal votes. Equating the ALP to Trump's efforts to deligitimise the US election is just crazy talk.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

4 Corners sounds rather interesting tonight. Government doing everything they can to stop it going ahead (so the content is clearly correct). Sexual harassment claims against ministers, apparently.

None of the Ministers will resign.

The Libs just refuse to follow the conventions.

Porter comes across as a nasty POS after his 10 years at University

[Farva]

So Joel Fitzgibbon has quit the shadow front bench over climate policy differences.

To be honest, Joel Fitzgibbon is a dinosaur with his views and in my mind its fairwell to the old brigade. I think he is quite disruptive and is holding back real climate action in this country. And I think his stepping down is evidence that he doesnt have the support within the party for his outdated views.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

He is typical of the Dynasty politicians in Oz - inherited his seat like a feudal lord.

There should be bans on that - one generation gap at least within a family.

<2% of the working population are miners and they have had ample heads up that Coal mining is on a countdown clock.

They are being used as pawns by the LNP and Fitzgibbon.

[Ellafan]

.

They are being used as pawns by the LNP and Fitzgibbon.

Strange bedfellows.

I see Farva labelled Fitzgibbon's views as 'outdated' - this is a good example of the sort of media/social- media personal disparagement & dismissal tactics, which backfired on the republicans 20 odd years ago.

Thanks Farva for the example of exactly what I have been trying to get AC to acknowledge.

[Ali's Choice]

.

They are being used as pawns by the LNP and Fitzgibbon.

Strange bedfellows.

I see Farva labelled Fitzgibbon's views as 'outdated' - this is a good example of the sort of media/social- media personal disparagement & dismissal tactics, which backfired on the republicans 20 odd years ago.

Thanks Farva for the example of exactly what I have been trying to get AC to acknowledge.

Strange comment. I acknowledge that lots of people who vote ALP or Green don't like fossil fuels and would prefer we transition to 100% renewable. Lots of people who vote for the Coalition fee the same way, including the Farmers Federation. I'm personally not in favour of immediately scrapping fossil fuels altogether. Having spent years living in regional QLD I know how much this would devastate many communities - they'll be destroyed. We will eventually transition to renewables, but this process will take time and happen over many years.

As an aside, I also think that the mining industry has a disproportionate amount of power given how few people it actually employs.

[kiwigreg369]

As an aside, I also think that the mining industry has a disproportionate amount of power given how few people it actually employs.

I assume it's proportionate to the amount of money they make / contribute to political parties - more that direct employees. And the fact they are very strong in WA and Q, and in Canberra.

This point does drive to the questions from the last election - what does ALP stand for and who does ALP represent? who could they represent in the future (to gather enough support to win an election).

[Ali's Choice]

As an aside, I also think that the mining industry has a disproportionate amount of power given how few people it actually employs.

I assume it's proportionate to the amount of money they make / contribute to political parties - more that direct employees. And the fact they are very strong in WA and Q, and in Canberra.

This point does drive to the questions from the last election - what does ALP stand for and who does ALP represent? who could they represent in the future (to gather enough support to win an election).

Ordinary workers who earn less than $180K who would have benefited from the ALP's tax cuts? Under 30's trying to buy their first home? Anyone who uses a public hospital, watches the ABC or who has a family member that attends a public school? Anyone who believes that Climate Change is a problem?

I appreciate that you wouldn't mix with many such people where you live in Mosman.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

I can picture Sluggy and Greg in their tophat and tails standing up for the Farriers and hostelry staff when Cars first arrived

How can you paint yourself capitalist and then want to artificially control the market forces....

[kiwigreg369]

AC - it's amazing given how many people they could appeal to that the ALP doesn't. It highlights just how shit they were at the last election. And given that list - which is a smorgasbord - they need to sort out what they really stand for (and obviously what would make them electable).

And my area is bluer, and older, than Mosman
Bradfield - 60% of votes to LIberal (down 0.8%)
In Mosman they're new age LIberals in comparison - as Tony found out...

[kiwigreg369]

I can picture Sluggy and Greg in their tophat and tails standing up for the Farriers and hostelry staff when Cars first arrived

How can you paint yourself capitalist and then want to artificially control the market forces....

You maintain this weird view of me - as discussed i've vote 6 times in my life - NZ '93 & '96, and UK '97, 01, 05, 10. I've voted Labour 5 times - albeit NuLabour - and i'm not sure about '10. I thought i'd voted Conservative / Cameron.

Anyway - off to beat a servant.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

I can picture Sluggy and Greg in their tophat and tails standing up for the Farriers and hostelry staff when Cars first arrived

How can you paint yourself capitalist and then want to artificially control the market forces....

You maintain this weird view of me - as discussed i've vote 6 times in my life - NZ '93 & '96, and UK '97, 01, 05, 10. I've voted Labour 5 times - albeit NuLabour - and i'm not sure about '10. I thought i'd voted Conservative / Cameron.

Anyway - off to beat a servant.

Really? I think you're like the Trump Voters who say they don't vote for him. Why else would you post Liberal/Conservative viewpoints constantly?

[kiwigreg369]

i think you read my posts with that bias.

I am economically conservative - by socially 'progressive' (whatever that means).

So fully support smaller government, less redistribution through tax and payouts (it's inefficient) - just reduce tax for those on less etc etc. But fully support maintaining core levels of support around health care, old age, education - e.g. im a big fan of provision of health care via the public sector (i used to work with the NHS in the UK).

But what also comes across is that I strongly dislike unions (for anything more than ensuring H&S). So i'm definitely not from the union side of labor...

[Pat the Ex Mat]

So you are against Unions who look after the lowest paid women in the workforce (The majority), or the CFMEU type - who are dying out. (Who would also be representing the Miners you support? )

I take it you don't take annual leave, sick pay, etc - things fought for and won by Unions....

In IT, there are no Unions, but I fully trust them over a corporate board any day.

[kiwigreg369]

So you are against Unions who look after the lowest paid women in the workforce (The majority), or the CFMEU type - who are dying out. (Who would also be representing the Miners you support? )
Yep - covered by minimum wage and employment legislation. I appreciate sometimes it's just easier to have things like collective bargaining etc but if you like your value determined by the lowest capable individual that's your choice
I don't necessarily support miners so not sure of reference - they can look after themselves and get paid for what they're worth. Guy's a chippy guy - i'm sure he can look after himself as he rakes in mining $$$

I take it you don't take annual leave, sick pay, etc - things fought for and won by Unions....
I'm a contractor - like you - so no, i don't. But i would/did because they're in place and were won a long time ago - we're past that.

In IT, there are no Unions, but I fully trust them over a corporate board any day.
Fully trust - really? I don't, but then i don't trust corporate boards either. each to their own.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

So who goes into bat for the minimum wage/conditions if not Unions?

Innes Willocks? Doubtful.

[kiwigreg369]

I’m not sure who that is ...

On min wage it’s then a political position - labour already pitches for more (but because they’re not good enough to get into power it’s decided by the liberals).

On conditions a variety of government organisations - like it is already.