Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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guy smiley
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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grievous wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:37 am Who are you idiots trying to upset with your circle jerking?
:lol: :thumbup:
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JB1981
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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guy smiley wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:18 am
grievous wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:37 am Who are you idiots trying to upset with your circle jerking?
:lol: :thumbup:
A pertinent question.

They are at it with a cult-like fervour.

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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2iom1b

Massive Prawns - never gets old
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Increasing number of Australians are seeking to leave their country (Report)

The Australian Border Force (ABF) received almost 40,000 applications in August from individuals hoping to leave the country – of which 14,900 of those were looking to be overseas for 3 months or more.

A large portion of the applications, 12,347, were rejected. Australia is one of the few countries in the world that require residents to apply for permission before leaving the country.

Australia has enjoyed some of the lowest infection and death rates from COVID-19 but it has seen state governments apply stringent health restrictions and domestic border closures at any sign of an outbreak – sometimes over 1 case.

The president of a conservative think tank told the Daily Telegraph: “There are literally tens of thousands of people out there on social media and elsewhere saying we’re done; we don’t need this anymore.”


Massive Prawns just not enough
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Dozy is going off like a prawn in the sun.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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grievous wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:18 am Dozy is going off like a prawn in the sun.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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jdogscoop wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:22 pm
message #2527204 wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:04 pm
jdogscoop wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:02 pm
message #2527204 wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:00 pm
jdogscoop wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:58 pm

If you are interested in what practically happens here, police offer you a mask if you aren't wearing one. If you refuse, then you risk a fine in the order of $A250.

In practice, you would be unlucky to be stopped let alone fined here of late, unfortunately.

That is of course, if you are interested in knowing what is actually going on.
You're talking about mask use - itself flawed - and outdoors, where virus will be blown away and destroyed by UV if not caught in a f**king piece of rag.
Take it up with the Victorian CHO then. I'm sure the Professor will be thrilled to hear your online reckons.
You'd have thought Australians themselves would have a word. Especially when people are ending up in hospital for attempting to walk down the street.
Having listened in to a few press conferences I can confirm there has been outdoor transmission here. Including, topically, at the France v Wallabies rugby international here earlier in winter.

The mask requirement outdoors was reintroduced shortly afterwards.

Love the arrogance though, classic UK poster style. :thumbup:

Any more advice, Prof Message?
Outdoor mask mandates are completely disproportionate when your strategy is to have months and months of lockdowns. Melbourne is going to end up as the city that has had the longest and hardest lockdown of probably any city on earth. Outdoor mask mandates create unnecessary hardship when you are trying to navigate months and months of lockdown. Given that you've given up on Zero Covid, it really should be thrown out.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Oh God, I see you have your own version of ISAG and iSAGE now. They are going to try and take over your airwaves with fear.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/new- ... 58r3x.html
Modelling by a new scientific lobby group projects that NSW’s road map to reopening may lead to all the state’s intensive care unit beds being full for five weeks over Christmas and almost 1000 people dying from COVID-19.

The modelling is the first release from OzSAGE, a group of high-profile scientists who have come together to call for Australia to change course on reopening.

OzSAGE’s membership includes some of Australia’s best-known scientists including leading epidemiologist Tony Blakely, Burnet Institute head Brendan Crabb, the Grattan Institute’s Stephen Duckett, the Kirby Institute’s biosecurity program head Raina MacIntyre and ANU vice-chancellor and Nobel-prize winning astronomer Brian Schmidt.

It strongly advocates for Australia to achieve COVID-19 “elimination”, similar to polio or measles, in which there is no sustained community transmission and outbreaks are rare.

This is very different to Australia’s national reopening plan, which calls for a lifting of restrictions and a shift of focus from preventing transmission to preventing death as the vaccination rate rises.
The likes of Indy SAGE in the UK have been a dreadful influence on the media.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:35 am Outdoor mask mandates are completely disproportionate when your strategy is to have months and months of lockdowns. Melbourne is going to end up as the city that has had the longest and hardest lockdown of probably any city on earth. Outdoor mask mandates create unnecessary hardship when you are trying to navigate months and months of lockdown. Given that you've given up on Zero Covid, it really should be thrown out.
I know you're just trolling, and taking immense delight in the suffering of Aussies in lockdown, but I'll bite just once. How the f**k could wearing a mask be considered an "unnecessary hardship"?
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:53 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:35 am Outdoor mask mandates are completely disproportionate when your strategy is to have months and months of lockdowns. Melbourne is going to end up as the city that has had the longest and hardest lockdown of probably any city on earth. Outdoor mask mandates create unnecessary hardship when you are trying to navigate months and months of lockdown. Given that you've given up on Zero Covid, it really should be thrown out.
I know you're just trolling, and taking immense delight in the suffering of Aussies in lockdown, but I'll bite just once. How the f**k could wearing a mask be considered an "unnecessary hardship"?

Let me guess, you aren't wearing one up in Queensland are you?
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Clogs wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:56 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:53 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:35 am Outdoor mask mandates are completely disproportionate when your strategy is to have months and months of lockdowns. Melbourne is going to end up as the city that has had the longest and hardest lockdown of probably any city on earth. Outdoor mask mandates create unnecessary hardship when you are trying to navigate months and months of lockdown. Given that you've given up on Zero Covid, it really should be thrown out.
I know you're just trolling, and taking immense delight in the suffering of Aussies in lockdown, but I'll bite just once. How the f**k could wearing a mask be considered an "unnecessary hardship"?

Let me guess, you aren't wearing one up in Queensland are you?
Why would I? Masks aren't currently mandated where I live and only have been for three days in total. I have almost complete freedom and have done for the entirety of this pandemic. According to the Prime Minister of Australia we are cavemen.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:53 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:35 am Outdoor mask mandates are completely disproportionate when your strategy is to have months and months of lockdowns. Melbourne is going to end up as the city that has had the longest and hardest lockdown of probably any city on earth. Outdoor mask mandates create unnecessary hardship when you are trying to navigate months and months of lockdown. Given that you've given up on Zero Covid, it really should be thrown out.
I know you're just trolling, and taking immense delight in the suffering of Aussies in lockdown, but I'll bite just once. How the f**k could wearing a mask be considered an "unnecessary hardship"?
Outdoor mask mandates have been in place in several places in the US (and arguably were useless given their performance), it isn't unique to you precious.

I think this article neatly sums up the tradeoffs involved.

https://slate.com/technology/2021/04/ma ... k-low.html
When it comes to coronavirus spread, evidence shows that being outdoors is very, very safe. A paper published in Indoor Air looked at 1,245 cases in China and found just one instance of outdoor transmission, which involved people having a conversation, which means they had to be close to one another for some period of time and face to face. According to data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, shared earlier this month with the Irish Times, of 232,164 cases in Ireland, just 262 were associated with “locations which are primarily associated with outdoor activities.” That is, about 0.1 percent. A meta-analysis published online in November in the Journal of Infectious Diseases suggests it’s possible the upper bound of cases potentially contracted outdoors is higher; it estimates that the total is less than 10 percent.
Masking can be exhausting. It makes recreation really annoying, especially as the weather warms. It makes it difficult to escape, even temporarily, from the pandemic. It deprives us of seeing one another’s smiles! I’m aware that these are also arguments deployed by those who decry all masking, even indoors. But the point is that masking shouldn’t be about signaling what side you’re on—it should be about using a tool in response to risk. Being overly vigilant about masks when they are not important makes it more difficult to keep wearing them when they are.
If we could all wear a mask for a couple of weeks and Covid would actually go away, then fine, as it is the likes of Melbourne are stuck in a long lockdown and really should be looking to make life as liveable as possible in the interim.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:58 am
Clogs wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:56 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:53 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:35 am Outdoor mask mandates are completely disproportionate when your strategy is to have months and months of lockdowns. Melbourne is going to end up as the city that has had the longest and hardest lockdown of probably any city on earth. Outdoor mask mandates create unnecessary hardship when you are trying to navigate months and months of lockdown. Given that you've given up on Zero Covid, it really should be thrown out.
I know you're just trolling, and taking immense delight in the suffering of Aussies in lockdown, but I'll bite just once. How the f**k could wearing a mask be considered an "unnecessary hardship"?

Let me guess, you aren't wearing one up in Queensland are you?
Why would I? Masks aren't currently mandated where I live and only have been for three days in total. I have almost complete freedom and have done for the entirety of this pandemic. According to the Prime Minister of Australia we are cavemen.

Ok, so let me tell you from first hand experience. They are an unpleasant hardship. Just such shit thing to have to put on when out and about. It will probably surprise you to know, but I reckon about 50% of people are now defiantly not wearing them. That is because they have endured enough. And the timing couldn't be worse. Just when we need people to keep wearing them, they simply won't.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Clogs wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:05 pm Ok, so let me tell you from first hand experience. They are an unpleasant hardship. Just such shit thing to have to put on when out and about. It will probably surprise you to know, but I reckon about 50% of people are now defiantly not wearing them. That is because they have endured enough. And the timing couldn't be worse. Just when we need people to keep wearing them, they simply won't.
I'm sorry to hear that 50% of your friends and family no longer care about abiding by health orders.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:09 pm
Clogs wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:05 pm Ok, so let me tell you from first hand experience. They are an unpleasant hardship. Just such shit thing to have to put on when out and about. It will probably surprise you to know, but I reckon about 50% of people are now defiantly not wearing them. That is because they have endured enough. And the timing couldn't be worse. Just when we need people to keep wearing them, they simply won't.
I'm sorry to hear that 50% of your friends and family no longer care about abiding by health orders.
No you aren't you liar.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Masking can be exhausting. It makes recreation really annoying, especially as the weather warms. It makes it difficult to escape, even temporarily, from the pandemic. It deprives us of seeing one another’s smiles! I’m aware that these are also arguments deployed by those who decry all masking, even indoors. But the point is that masking shouldn’t be about signaling what side you’re on—it should be about using a tool in response to risk. Being overly vigilant about masks when they are not important makes it more difficult to keep wearing them when they are.
:lol: Sold! Public health orders be damned! What compelling evidence that mask wearing is a waste of time! We can't see each others smiles!

In all seriousness, the producer of this steaming turd needs to run straight into the nearest brick wall. Fast.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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jdogscoop wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:58 pm

Masking can be exhausting. It makes recreation really annoying, especially as the weather warms. It makes it difficult to escape, even temporarily, from the pandemic. It deprives us of seeing one another’s smiles! I’m aware that these are also arguments deployed by those who decry all masking, even indoors. But the point is that masking shouldn’t be about signaling what side you’re on—it should be about using a tool in response to risk. Being overly vigilant about masks when they are not important makes it more difficult to keep wearing them when they are.
:lol: Sold! Public health orders be damned! What compelling evidence that mask wearing is a waste of time! We can't see each others smiles!

In all seriousness, the producer of this steaming turd needs to run straight into the nearest brick wall. Fast.
The simple facts are that globally there are different approaches to masks (and a lot of other things)- all different experts and varying strategies (the attempts at tying yourself to one expert is lazy). The evidence on masks outdoors is so marginal that to make it mandatory makes it an unnecessary hardship when you are pursuing lockdowns for months.

Quite a few people don't have back gardens or large balconies to enjoy the outdoors, these are factors you have to consider with them. If it was masks outdoors for 2-3 weeks while you eliminate Covid, there is an argument for whatever marginal gain you make, otherwise it's an unnecessary burden which once again impacts those worse off.
Last edited by Blackrock Bullet on Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:09 pm
Clogs wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:05 pm Ok, so let me tell you from first hand experience. They are an unpleasant hardship. Just such shit thing to have to put on when out and about. It will probably surprise you to know, but I reckon about 50% of people are now defiantly not wearing them. That is because they have endured enough. And the timing couldn't be worse. Just when we need people to keep wearing them, they simply won't.
I'm sorry to hear that 50% of your friends and family no longer care about abiding by health orders.

“Orders”.


There’s no mistaking what these people are.

Sold! Public health orders be damned! What compelling evidence that mask wearing is a waste of time! We can't see each others smiles!

In all seriousness, the producer of this steaming turd needs to run straight into the nearest brick wall. Fast.

Yes, make up your own mind regarding sitting on your own outside and the associated risks.

And yes there’s plenty of research already and very sadly showing poor child development due to mask mandates and input from human faces into the early year development. You don’t seem aware the part facial expressions play in human experience.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(

Silly, the more virus the more the efficacy of measures will show. Mask mandates don’t demonstrate any efficacy across America,
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:30 pm
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
:lol: :nod:
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:30 pm Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:37 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:30 pm
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
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And what is their strategy?
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:54 am
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:37 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:30 pm
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
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And what is their strategy?
It centres on avoiding 5,000 dead out of 5,000,000 people.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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It isn't elimination, there's your answer.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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MungoMan wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:03 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:54 am
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:37 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:30 pm
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:05 pm Tell us more about the state of the US covid outbreak at the time it was decided it was “arguably useless given their performance” to wear masks outdoors, because that would be self-evident once the country is so plague ridden your only option is to ride it out.

Real hardship is reading clogs flip flopping hormonal outbursts daily on all the Covid threads, day after day, after day, after day. x(
Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
Image
And what is their strategy?
It centres on avoiding 5,000 dead out of 5,000,000 people.

It centres on avoiding 5,000 covid related deaths and what would be seen as bad press. It doesn’t care if these are just delays or cause deaths from other reasons/places.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

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bimboman wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:47 am
MungoMan wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:03 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:54 am
Harveys wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:37 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:30 pm

Several US states employed outdoor mask mandates, it made little to no difference to their Covid stats. There are no stats to show it has had anything close to a material impact between states and countries that had prolonged outbreaks. If you look at somewhere like Denmark for example, which is what the States in Australia who are looking to progressively reopen with Covid should look at, they didn't have a mask mandate outdoors.

Again, if you want outdoors mask mandates for a few weeks in order to get to elimination, there is an argument for any marginal little thing to help. That is not what Melbourne is doing.
Image
And what is their strategy?
It centres on avoiding 5,000 dead out of 5,000,000 people.

It centres on avoiding 5,000 covid related deaths and what would be seen as bad press. It doesn’t care if these are just delays or cause deaths from other reasons/places.
Ireland (Republic of) has 5,000 covid related deaths from just over 5,000,000 people, and I was replying to an Irish troll responding to a post about Melbourne. Relevantly, greater Melbourne has a marginally larger population.

The Andrews Government would not survive anything like 5,000 covid related deaths, regardless of what the press said, unless it was spread over twenty years. By which time, Dan the Man would almost certainly be otherwise occupied.
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Ireland (Republic of) has 5,000 covid related deaths from just over 5,000,000 people, and I was replying to an Irish troll responding to a post about Melbourne. Relevantly, greater Melbourne has a marginally larger population.

The Andrews Government would not survive anything like 5,000 covid related deaths, regardless of what the press said, unless it was spread over twenty years. By which time, Dan the Man would almost certainly be otherwise occupied.

It’s a collective madness.


You’re going to have 5,000 deaths across Victoria, you know this right ?
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by Clogs »

This is an interesting idea that is worth some serious consideration.
Unpredictable lockdowns could be replaced with timed national shutdowns
Lockdowns are inevitable, even as vaccinations rise, so we should consider scheduling two-week shutdowns to keep cases low.

Igor Gonda
3 min read
September 15, 2021 - 10:00AM



Australia is finally waking up from the dream that the SARS-COV2 virus will disappear as a result of our interventions.

Based on our current knowledge, it is a very reasonable assumption that this virus and its consequences in the form of Covid-19 disease are going to stay with us for a long time. At least that seems to be our current knowledge of the potential impact of testing, tracing, vaccinations, masks and social distancing, as well as the nature of this virus and the various mutants we have seen so far.

The difficult question for Australia is what an acceptable “new normal” would be and how to get to it.

Let us be humble. Nobody has the crystal ball. I am always guided by that great philosopher Yogi Berra, who said “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”.

But there are some things that we know: for example, the overall capacity of the Australian hospital system.

My other guiding principle in situations like this is the statement by the famous statistician George Box: “All models are wrong but some are useful”. The Doherty Institute model of the Covid-19 pandemic for Australia is useful.

The Treasury report based on that model provides an excellent analysis of potential future scenarios for Australia’s management of Covid-19 infections and, in particular, it extends the Doherty work to the economic impacts.

Most importantly, it hits the nail right on the head by not even considering scenarios that would imply exceeding the capacity of the current Australian healthcare system. Ignoring that constraint would potentially lead to death rates that could exceed even those, for example, in the US or UK: the latter has about 70 per cent vaccination of the population with second jabs, yet the daily new cases average almost 40,000 and, sadly, about 100 people a day die from Covid-19. Such numbers in Australia are unimaginable and I am sure most Australians would be prepared to take the tough steps to prevent them.

We can – and should – expand the capacity of the healthcare system but building new hospitals and ICU units, and finding well-trained staff for them, takes time. But that is not enough.

The Treasury report projects that with the current capacity of our hospital systems, some form of lockdowns would be necessary in future; as no vaccine is 100 per cent effective. Even if the vaccination rates reach 80 per cent plus, we will need lockdowns in the foreseeable future.

The modelling of the impact of the lockdowns in the Treasury report does not address one important and preventable factor – the consequence of the fact that the timing of these lockdowns is at present unexpected, unplanned and sudden.

That adds to the financial losses to industries such as hospitality, tourism and sports, or for anyone working with perishable goods. But it is also psychologically devastating for students and their parents, as well as anyone who cannot work remotely. We are ill-equipped for such dramatic twists in our personal and social life, as well.

Looking at the global pattern of the Covid-19 infection, the peaks and troughs in case numbers follow a similar pattern of two to four-month cycles. The amplitude changes – and in countries with successful public measure controls it goes down – but the periodicity remains.

Would it not be worth trying to plan regular nationwide lockdowns? For example, two weeks of strict lockdowns every two months? These would enable each one of us as individuals, communities and a nation to plan our activities in advance.

It would probably also give rise to new enterprises that could provide the much-needed extra goods and services when lockdowns are under way, for example, extra educational materials for children. The catering industry could refocus on home delivery of meals, particularly for those in greatest need. And one could think of many others that already exist but as the need for them comes and goes irregularly, they are under-utilised, such as physical exercise classes for home, music or language lessons, or gaining extra qualifications to expand our employability.

Virtual reality technology could become a real reality of our planned lockdowns,

What if a particular locality were to get a massive outbreak of Covid-19 outside such regular lockdowns? The state governments could always start a reactive lockdown if things got out of hand but the chances are good that ultimately these regular nationwide lockdowns would reduce the case numbers during the peaks that the country could cope with.

Of course, the lockdowns could be relaxed, or made less frequent as we find new ways to deal with this infection and expand our healthcare capacity.

Dr Igor Gonda is a respiratory health research scientist who worked in universities and industry in Australia, the UK and the US. He is currently consulting with several companies on potential therapies for Covid-19.
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Farva
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by Farva »

bimboman wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:46 pm
Ireland (Republic of) has 5,000 covid related deaths from just over 5,000,000 people, and I was replying to an Irish troll responding to a post about Melbourne. Relevantly, greater Melbourne has a marginally larger population.

The Andrews Government would not survive anything like 5,000 covid related deaths, regardless of what the press said, unless it was spread over twenty years. By which time, Dan the Man would almost certainly be otherwise occupied.

It’s a collective madness.


You’re going to have 5,000 deaths across Victoria, you know this right ?
We have had 800 so far. Given we are approaching being mostly vaccinated, and Ireland was not mostly vaccinated for those 5k deaths, I am positive it wont be that high.
It will be more than 800. How much more we dont yet know.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by jdogscoop »

Farva wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:24 am
bimboman wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:46 pm
Ireland (Republic of) has 5,000 covid related deaths from just over 5,000,000 people, and I was replying to an Irish troll responding to a post about Melbourne. Relevantly, greater Melbourne has a marginally larger population.

The Andrews Government would not survive anything like 5,000 covid related deaths, regardless of what the press said, unless it was spread over twenty years. By which time, Dan the Man would almost certainly be otherwise occupied.

It’s a collective madness.


You’re going to have 5,000 deaths across Victoria, you know this right ?
We have had 800 so far. Given we are approaching being mostly vaccinated, and Ireland was not mostly vaccinated for those 5k deaths, I am positive it wont be that high.
It will be more than 800. How much more we dont yet know.
Bearing in mind the state of Victoria has over 6,000,000 residents, I agree we are in a materially better position than Ireland and are almost certain to remain that way.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by bimboman »

Farva wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:24 am
bimboman wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:46 pm
Ireland (Republic of) has 5,000 covid related deaths from just over 5,000,000 people, and I was replying to an Irish troll responding to a post about Melbourne. Relevantly, greater Melbourne has a marginally larger population.

The Andrews Government would not survive anything like 5,000 covid related deaths, regardless of what the press said, unless it was spread over twenty years. By which time, Dan the Man would almost certainly be otherwise occupied.

It’s a collective madness.


You’re going to have 5,000 deaths across Victoria, you know this right ?
We have had 800 so far. Given we are approaching being mostly vaccinated, and Ireland was not mostly vaccinated for those 5k deaths, I am positive it wont be that high.
It will be more than 800. How much more we dont yet know.

Even fully vaccinated it’ll cause 5,000 deaths. It’s an endemic respiratory disease.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by Farva »

With the 5m people in Melbourne an 6m in Vic, 5k is around 0.1% of the population. 6 months ago you were telling me that the virus had an IFR of around 0.2%. So its going to be reduced by half only is it, and that is assuming everyone gets it, which they wont, well, not in the next 12 months.

I have said that the IFR is more like 0.5% to 1% and I think that is more likely, so will use the lower below.

The vaccines offer somewhere above 90% protection from hospitalisation (so extrapolate that for death too). 90% of people over 70 are now vaccinated (and I think the number of deaths below that will be minimal) so we can assume that 0.05% of vaccinated people die and 0.5% of unvaccinated. That results in around 2000 deaths if 80% of people get the virus, 1 in 10 people over 70 are unvaccinated and there is a 90% reduction in the likelihood of death (its higher than that).

Doherty Institute modelling has that figure even lower, at only 1500 deaths across Australia - https://twitter.com/TheDohertyInst/stat ... g-suggests
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by bimboman »

Farva wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:24 am With the 5m people in Melbourne an 6m in Vic, 5k is around 0.1% of the population. 6 months ago you were telling me that the virus had an IFR of around 0.2%. So its going to be reduced by half only is it, and that is assuming everyone gets it, which they wont, well, not in the next 12 months.

I have said that the IFR is more like 0.5% to 1% and I think that is more likely, so will use the lower below.

The vaccines offer somewhere above 90% protection from hospitalisation (so extrapolate that for death too). 90% of people over 70 are now vaccinated (and I think the number of deaths below that will be minimal) so we can assume that 0.05% of vaccinated people die and 0.5% of unvaccinated. That results in around 2000 deaths if 80% of people get the virus, 1 in 10 people over 70 are unvaccinated and there is a 90% reduction in the likelihood of death (its higher than that).

Doherty Institute modelling has that figure even lower, at only 1500 deaths across Australia - https://twitter.com/TheDohertyInst/stat ... g-suggests

The IFR isn’t 05-1% so maybe you’re right, open up and get in with it then ffs, :thumbup:
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by Farva »

We will, once we hit our vaccination targets, which was the plan from day dot.
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by bimboman »

Farva wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:32 am We will, once we hit our vaccination targets, which was the plan from day dot.

Being locked down is a national emergency. How are you not all vaccinated yet?


(Ps the over 40’s should cover it).
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Re: Australia - The Hermit Kingdom

Post by MungoMan »

bimboman wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:39 am
Farva wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:24 am
bimboman wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:46 pm
Ireland (Republic of) has 5,000 covid related deaths from just over 5,000,000 people, and I was replying to an Irish troll responding to a post about Melbourne. Relevantly, greater Melbourne has a marginally larger population.

The Andrews Government would not survive anything like 5,000 covid related deaths, regardless of what the press said, unless it was spread over twenty years. By which time, Dan the Man would almost certainly be otherwise occupied.

It’s a collective madness.


You’re going to have 5,000 deaths across Victoria, you know this right ?
We have had 800 so far. Given we are approaching being mostly vaccinated, and Ireland was not mostly vaccinated for those 5k deaths, I am positive it wont be that high.
It will be more than 800. How much more we dont yet know.

Even fully vaccinated it’ll cause 5,000 deaths. It’s an endemic respiratory disease.
Since none of the vaccines to date have prevented at least some of the fully vaccinated from catching COVID-19, I'm assuming national health bodies will accept it as endemic sooner rather than later.

And since none of the vaccines to date have prevented at least some of the fully vaccinated from being recorded as a COVID-associated fatality, I'm assuming COVID-associated fatalities will not cease anytime soon.

Timing does make a material difference, tho', whether it's public or government perception we're talking about. Comparing like with like in terms of population, 5,000 deaths in one year look quite a bit different to 5,000 deaths over five years.
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